Category: prepping

Sat. June 5, 2021 – putting them to work…

Warm and partly sunny, some chance of rain. Friday it rained off and on all day. There were periods of sun, and some times when it wasn’t raining, but in general, rain.

Spent the day indoors, doing cleaning, some computer stuff, and organizing.

Managed to harvest 6 more blueberries. There should be a bunch ready today, or possibly tomorrow. One of the bushes has a nice load of fruit, and they are mostly in the same stage of ripeness.

House is freshly cleaned.

Talking with my cleaner, she had several close family get sick, and some in her extended circle died. The hispanic community really was hit much worse than the white and black communities, at least here in Houston. She said she’s finally hearing from her old clients, and they are bringing her back, just like we did. If that’s indicative of the economy in general, things are looking better.

Today I’ve got more cleaning and organizing to do, in the driveway and patio in particular if the weather will let me. I’ve also got a couple of pickups, more household stuff. We’ll see how it goes.

All this cleaning is taking a bunch of time, but it’s worth doing. We’ve let things go a bit during the last year, and it’s time to catch back up.

I’m seeing that as kind of a general feeling too. Time to get back to it and start moving into whatever comes next.

Given all the stuff happening on the world stage, I hope we don’t end up looking back and thinking about the golden year we spent at home with only getting sick to worry about.

Thoughts like that make me want to stack some more. Stack something. If you can’t, get something out and practice with it. Test it. Learn more about it. Or meet some people, and see how they feel about things. Stack it, or do something, or both, but always be working…

n

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Thur. June 3, 2021 – these short weeks confuse my sense of time

Wednesday stayed nice all day. We were on the edge of the forecast storm area and once again missed it. Even openweathermap.org had us getting rain around 4pm… and they were both right and wrong. Right on time I got about 4 drops on my windshield, and that was it. We got a spatter at 7pm, but never really got any significant rain. I’m hoping for similar results today.

I have a pickup or two to do, and it would be easier to drop the kids at the pool than listen to them in the car for an hour. Unfortunately my pickups are near the airports, one each, so not a short drive. Worth it though for the stuff. One estate sale netted me an item at below market, even after tax and transfer fees. Unless I missed something in the pictures, I got a good deal on something that is in high demand and somewhat short supply.

I didn’t get any ammo in the auctions this week though, as the prices are still at retail or higher, for old and mismatched rounds.

Speaking of mismatched, I have enough accessories that I can’t sell on ebay (or use myself) that I’m considering selling on gunbroker. Anyone have experience with the actual process? I mostly use them for price checking.

I’d put some of the stuff in local auctions but my “household stuff” guy shut me down for a while. I WON’T be dropping off this load until they clear out some room in their warehouse. And THAT sucks dead bunnies. I’m getting a bit desperate to move some of this stuff.

In other news, I got another dozen blueberries off the bushes yesterday. I think I’ve passed last year’s total harvest now… The tomatoes are taking over the plots and the kitchen. Now my wife is looking at taking a half bushel to the local food bank today. They supposedly take garden produce.

Speaking of food banks, the state wants to give us another SNAP card for the school lunches we won’t be getting – because school is out for the summer. I ended up using the last one to buy food and donate it to the food bank for Thanksgiving meals. I think I will do the same with this one. We qualify (regardless of income) because our kids attend schools that offer free breakfasts and lunches to every student (because we have so many kids that qualify, they give them to everyone). Bread and circuses. F the world.

And WRT the world, I don’t know WHY we’re seeing all the china flu revelations, or why FauxXi is suddenly not receiving cover from the press, but I like it. I do want to know what they are distracting us from seeing though. They’ll be reporting on it, just not emphasizing it, or featuring it. It will be there though, so they can point back to it later. Crypto and debt currently not featured… hm.

Stack what you can. Lots of people are late coming to the party but there are still seats at the table and canapes’ being passed… we’re definitely in the ‘new normal’ though. Increased prices, increased violence, increased awareness, and increased shortages. The trend lines don’t look great to me. Anyone who can offer a counter narrative, I’m willing to hear it, indeed, I WANT to hear it, but there has to be some factual basis for the narrative. I may object to the facts, or to the interpretation, but I would like to hear it, if ya got one.

In the absence of other instruction, keep stacking.

nick

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Wed. June 2, 2021 – ah, the sweet smell of __________

Tuesday was a pretty nice day weather-wise after all. Never rained again after the early morning showers, and eventually got nice and clear, with a beautiful sunset. It stayed reasonably cool in the shade too. Even though the long term national forecast shows us in the rain zone for the next three days, I’m hoping today is nice too. I really want to take the kids to the pool and run some errands.

I spent yesterday continuing to chip away at the pile and the list. I’m making slow progress. I need a few hours to take stuff to the auctioneer though and to get it out of the house.

There is a massive bowl of tomatoes on the counter, despite my wife turning into one of those people who push fresh veg on everyone they see in the day. Even if I liked tomatoes, we have too many, but ironically, not enough to make sauce. This is why I only plant a couple of tomato plants every year. Oh well, it is making her happy as she loves them. They are super tasty, but I think a slice a week is the appropriate amount…

Because I was home with the kids, I did instacart for the groceries. Lots of stuff out of stock, but that could be because we’re coming off the long weekend. Meat prices are high and likely to go higher if we get a real shortage from the cyber attack on a big processor. If you’ve got a freezer full, you are looking like a hero. If you are still filling your freezer, think hard about grabbing some meat right the heck now, in case this attack turns into a longer disruption. Any upset in the just in time system takes a while to recover from, and I think we’re about to get a lesson in that. One of the reasons to prep is to have enough food put by that you can ride out temporary shortages and price fluctuations. The difficulty then comes if it’s not temporary and you haven’t restocked at all, then you have a big hit or you do without when prices are still high. There are trade offs to every approach. Find a strategy you are comfortable with.

This also goes to knowing what stuff costs. It’s hard to know if beef is cheap or dear this week, if you don’t pay attention to normal variation, and the cost of routine items. Even with big purchases like my truck, it was much smarter to shop for a few weeks, and recognize a great deal when it came my way, than my initial urge to buy the first suitable truck I saw at a reasonable price.

When it comes to things I think I will want later, or that I know I’d like to have, I start watching prices as soon as I can. Then, if and when that thing becomes available, I can jump on a deal, or let it go to the next guy. One thing that I learned now that I’m mostly shopping in the secondary market- it will distort what you are willing to pay. I’m finding that there are items that I would have gone to a thrift store to get (most of them have the same sorts of things most of the time) but now I will wait until I see them for even less in the outlet store. I think the price at the thrift store is too high 🙂

The opposite can happen too. When I was traveling for work, and living in hotels, if I bought a drink in the bar that was less than $12 I was a happy boy. Whooo hooo, cheap cocktails! Of course they weren’t cheap by any objective standard, but they were a lot cheaper than most nice hotel bars or ‘date night’ restaurants. I just got used to paying the high price. I’m sure California works that way for everything… and the people who move here certainly think that housing is insanely cheap compared to there. I know I did back in the day.

There are a lot of economic factors that can enter into your decisions about what to stack and how much. Commander Zero has been looking at gold, guns, and greenbacks and has a different idea than far too many of the commentors seem to have, and it’s one I share. Better to have spent the money and have the stuff, than not to have spent it, and not have the stuff. Better to have saved some money for needs or opportunities later on, than spend every penny today.

Finding the balance between spending and saving, between stacking against a possible need, and saving for a possible opportunity, will come down to your personality, your goals, and your view of the future. I think it’s better if you make those decisions after some thought, but don’t let that keep you from acting.

Whatever comes, having some stuff to give you time and options, and having some resources to take advantage of opportunities or sudden needs will serve you well. Keep stacking.

nick

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Tues. June 1, 2021 – Summer. Is this the summer of our discontent?

According to the national forecast we are right on the edge of a system, in two directions, and there is a front lined up on Houston too. Which all means that any small variation in any direction and we are outside the predicted rainstorm area. Or we could be deeper inside of it. I’m betting on being outside of the storm area though as that’s what usually happens when we’re close to the edge. Yesterday stayed nice all day. Cooler and part sun, nice in the shade, a great day to be outside. I was the only one in my family to take advantage of it.

Stayed home for the holy day. I am increasingly uncomfortable with the festive atmosphere, even though I know that after the remembrance comes the celebration…which I suppose is why the flags are at half staff until noon, then return to full for the rest of the day. I say return, because half staff is where you end up after first raising the flag to the top. For most people it doesn’t matter at all, but for those who care, it matters a lot. It doesn’t take much to do it properly. In any case, I’m not in a big hurry to go out partying on Memorial Day.

My wife spent the day cleaning the house. I kept chipping away at cleaning, organizing, and doing auction stuff. I did go out and made my morning pickup. The ladies running the sale seemed embarrassed to be working, and insisted that the national auction site set the pickup rules. Someone’s an idiot, and someone should have put their foot down. Traffic was very light. It felt more like 6am than 10am although the donut store was doing a brisk business.

Today I’m starting my summer routine. I’m home with the kids while my wife goes into the office. I am going to try to be a bit more structured this summer than last. One thing I’d really like is dedicated time with each child to do something physical, or at least with physical stuff. I’m thinking craft and handiwork mainly, but also stuff like flying the drones and launching the model rockets, or just flying the kites. I guess we’ll play it by ear and see how we all like it.

Dropping them at the pool in the afternoon should give me the free time I need to do auction stuff, but I don’t know when I’ll find time to get over to my secondary location to continue cleaning it out. So much to do, and very little progress in the last month.

Speaking of much to do, I need to do a grocery order today. I like being back in the store to see what’s there and what’s on sale, but I can make better use of the time ordering for delivery, and I don’t have to drag the kids along. My fresh grocery inventory has fallen lower than I’m comfortable with, and I’d have restocked on Friday if the stores weren’t crowded with people shopping for the weekend. Three days delay, and I’m getting anxious. That’s despite having more food in stock than some small Quik-E-Marts.*

Some people have more guns and ammo than the local National Guard Armory, I like to have food stacked.

Which brings this to a close, with my customary admonition… find what you need, and keep stacking it.

nick

*only a small exaggeration for effect, in reality I have more than most people, but not as much as I’d like.

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Fri. May 28, 2021 – schooooool’s out for suuuuuummmmer…..

Possibility of rain here in the Bayou city, but otherwise, the same as yesterday, hot and humid, with some sun.

Did a bunch of stuff yesterday, some of it moving my goals along. I’ve found that my auctioneers are very busy and the best way to get them to talk with me and do things for me is to talk to them in person by showing up at their office. Most of them treat their phones like you’d treat a rattlesnake, something I’m seeing in more and more people. Meatspace is becoming increasingly important.

One of the lots I picked up was a bunch of medical supplies. They had hand written unit designations that made it look like an army medic took his bag with him when he went home. Of course most of it is probably out of date but that doesn’t worry me much, it’s stuff that would only be used in extremis anyway, or stuff that doesn’t age out. There are some interesting things out there, if you are lucky and paying attention. Hibid.com is nationwide and is the platform that most of the auctions I patronize are listed on, if you want to check out the ‘scene’.

I’m a big fan of the ‘secondary’ market and believe that it’s the future, at least for a while yet. Retail and the way people acquire goods and services are going through a change, along with everything else in our day to day lives. Part of that change is the rise of resellers, and person to person selling. It’s actually a bit worrying for me, as one common element of life in any third world shitehole is the proliferation of street vendors and unofficial marketplaces. I see it growing in the areas around my neighborhood, I see it around my secondary location. Not a good sign in my estimation. (Flip the script- can YOU become one of those vendors? You might have to if things degrade that much.)

You may want to get some practice in the new marketplace, just like you need practice in any endeavor. Observe, pay attention, do what the others there already are doing. Do they haggle? Do they expect some chat in addition to the transaction? Do they expect a bag or box for their purchases? Is cash king? (it may not be, there are a lot of phone based person to person payment systems, and the “unbanked” seem to be using them.) One other thing, are the buyers using coins? I’d argue that if they are, you should be too, otherwise you’ll be marked as “rich” because you aren’t counting every penny.

As an aside, I’ve noticed that in some cultures, the females will be doing the shopping, handling the money, but there is a watchful male with them. He’s really in charge, but apparently can’t be bothered to actually do the ‘little things’. I hate seeing that for cultural reasons, or rather, the destruction of OUR culture reasons. If you’re male, and you are in that sort of a marketplace, you are going to stand out if you don’t have a female to do those things for you. (and yes, I’m talking about the US, in thrift stores, the Goodwill Outlet, and swapmeets and yard sales. We are losing.)

During conflicts the ‘outsider’ is always suspect. Start paying attention and realize that you might be the outsider, even in your own home town. How do you dress, move, comport yourself? It may be to your advantage to be obviously ‘foreign’ as people won’t expect you to know the unwritten rules, as long as things are ‘normal’. But if the mood shifts, or violence is in the offing, you want to disappear, blend, fade to grey. Pay attention now. Start learning** while it’s not a matter of life or death.*

And build up those stacks, so you don’t have to venture into danger unnecessarily.

nick

(* equally true for rural or city areas that are nominally part of our culture. You show up at the Quik E Mart in rural America with a problem, and you will get a lot more help if you are “might be one of us” rather than “f’ing rich city boy”, and the same is true in NYFC. You should be able to fit in enough that you are in the ‘provisionally not a threat/outsider/unknown’ category rather than ‘you’re not from around here are you, boy?’*)

(** for practice, there are usually farmer’s markets on weekends, and there are always ethnic stores, even quite large grocery stores. Every city has a swap meet, maybe only one weekend a month, but usually every weekend. You’ll know if you venture too far off the beaten path. The interrupted conversations, the guarded looks, the people who suddenly leave are all good indicators that you are recognized as an outsider and a (possibly dangerous) unknown***. There are a different set of markers when you are recognized as an outsider and you are tagged as “prey”. In that case, you don’t want to stick around, and it would be a great time to have a reason for being there, like “Can I speak to the owner? I’m from the local agency and we’re doing outreach with local businesses… oh, he’s not here?? Thanks, I’ll check back later.”**)

(***for examples, you can watch xiaomaNYC on youtube, and pay attention when he goes into an area or a business where he sticks out, and then note the change when he gives them a REASON why he’s there “I’m learning pashtun and I am out practicing my speaking skills”.***)

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Wed. May 26, 2021 – more stuff to do, more rain forecast

Same weather forecast as yesterday. Rain for parts of Houston, hot and humid. Although, for us mid 80s really isn’t “hot”. Yesterday as I drove all over the Houston metro area and even some rural areas north of town, I could see the storm cells in the distance all around, and I drove through enough to know that almost everyone got some rain. Today should be the same and that’s a bit of an issue because the ground is saturated. The bayous are filling up, and we’re going to see flooding soon.

One of my errands yesterday was a Costco run. Picked up the usual things, but also some extensions to my stores. Grabbed another 50# of rice, at 32c/pound. Didn’t get much meat. They were completely out of spiral sliced ham. No lamb at all. Usually they have roasts, chops, and ribs. I got one package of chicken thighs for the freezer and one package of their “master carved” ham. Beef was all more expensive than I was ready to pay. I can still get it on sale, but if we go a couple of weeks without a sale, I might have to ratchet my ‘base’ ‘willing to buy’ price up another notch. Pork wasn’t cheap, and I decided that Costco pork was just too lean for me so I don’t usually buy it there anyway.

All of the canned veg that I noticed was national brands. Our Costco had substituted the Kirkland brand for all veg pre-wuflu, but it was all back to the big brands yesterday. Don’t know if that is indicative of anything bigger, or just what they could get into the store.

They did have Mountain House Freeze Dried in the “Adventure Pack” boxes. I picked up another. They are heavy on breakfast and lunch, so not a great deal, but very convenient and light and FDs should have a place in everyone’s preps.

During one of my pickups I chatted with the auctioneer about prices and buyers. He agrees with me that more people are taking advantage of the resale auctions to save money on everyday purchases. He worries too that they will eventually run out of money for anything other than daily necessities, and his sale item mix is heavily weighted toward discretionary items. Prices in general are a bit lower this week than last on discretionary items. Could be falling demand showing up. (Buyers new to the auctions are generally excited by the low prices and buy a bunch of stuff. That tapers off over time. We’re seeing a bunch of new buyers which might be propping up prices.) Food for thought.

Today I’m supposed to finally be dropping off some small amount of stuff with one of the local auctions. I might still get a chance to drop off more later. The auctioneers are all crazy busy and are mixing estate sales in with resale items, or mixing resale in with estates. In other words, they are all jumping at every dollar they can, and they are scrambling to keep up with demand, and trying different things to find stuff that will sell well.

My un-paid-for pokemon cards will get relisted in a new sale, and I’m adding vintage hot wheels and some other smalls while I have the chance. She doesn’t want another 10 bins of stuff from me yet despite telling me initially that she’d take as much as I could bring. Any is better than none though.

It feels like the window to sell off unwanted stuff is closing. And that’s bad.

If you haven’t figured out an inflation hedge, you should take another look at that. Everyone is noticing that prices are up. Physical gold in large amounts? If you can swing it, you might want to… just saying. Half a year’s expenses in gold might make all the difference in getting through whatever is coming. I am not so sure about half a year in cash, and even less sure about money in ‘investments’. I remember my money market account being locked up for two years when it ‘broke the buck’ in 2008, until they decided what to do. Very few people can call the top of a market successfully, but we all know that history hasn’t been eliminated, and what can’t go on forever, won’t. I’ve been ringing that bell for a while, but … I’ve lived the conviction too. Caution should be your watchword, greed should be your nemesis.

And stacks will help, no matter what.

nick

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Tues. May 25, 2021 – even Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn lived through it

Warm and damp, but maybe not raining all day. Yesterday finally dried up in the mid and late afternoon, but by then everything was saturated and my day was shot.

So I stayed in and did cleaning and paperwork. I let it go far too long. Every year I think I will get a better handle on it, and every year I don’t. I don’t beat myself up too hard about it anymore, but it does lead to stress for my wife and me, that could be avoided by some more consistent habits. It also takes big chunks of time when I leave it to be done last minute, that I’d be better off using for just about anything else.

That points out two things- staying on top of a job by doing little bits as they come in saves the big effort later, and the flip side, you can spend a great deal of time doing stuff a little bit at a time, that you completely lose track of because it gets lost in the noise of your normal life. In other words, you can either piss away a lot of time on small tasks, or you can use the little bits of time efficiently and save a big continuous chunk for use later. I guess it depends on the task and your personality which is which…

Today I’ve got auction stuff to drop off if the weather is dry, an orthodontia appointment for oldest, and a Costco run, along with the usual errands.

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The idea that hyperinflation might be coming is spreading throughout the prep-o-sphere and related circles on the blogoverse Venn diagram. Peter has some interesting things aggregated over at https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/ I’ve linked to him before, his ongoing observations on irregular warfare and his experiences in failed states and conflict zones are well worth your time. He mostly blogs about gun stuff and writing with a healthy dose of preparedness (not necessarily ‘prepping’.) Lately he’s been addressing some of the basics as if they’ve just come up for him (which is odd) but it does lead to some good comments. There is also the usual bunch of “waddabout-ism”- “waddabout after the zombies eat your wife, what’ll you do for laundry then?” and shite like that that always crops up… This time it was “waddabout after your pile of stored food runs out? Waddabout then? Huh?” Go read the post and the comments for yourself, and then think about it.

My response there was that all your preps basically give you time and choices when it comes to adapting to the new circumstances, and that there are always more options. Which led to a comment about solar powered freezers and a company I’m not familiar with, SunDanzer that specializes in off grid freezers. I don’t have any experience with them, but they look the business, and it’s one more option, so I’m linking it here.

It is VERY common when talking about storing food, especially frozen food, to get the “waddabout”. What about when the power goes out? Get a gennie. What about when the gennie runs out of fuel? Go to solar and batteries. What about when you’ve eaten all the frozen food? Well, you won’t need to worry about powering the freezer, you’ll be too busy working on your garden, hunting, or roasting strays over gasoline fires… The “waddabout” thinks every option is the only one, the last one, and because it’s limited or has flaws, it’s useless. The “waddabout” is frustrating and can be infuriating if you’ve already asked the questions and considered answers.

It’s frustrating because asking the question the “waddabout” asks IS valuable, if you don’t ask it as a ‘gotcha’ but as a way to explore second and third order effects and their problems. Absolutely ask “what do we do when the fuel runs out”? but then find an answer that works for you. Then iterate again and again, as far as your time, money, experience, and imagination will allow. Just going through the exercise is valuable. Actually doing some of the stuff to mitigate the problems is even more valuable. The “waddabout” stops with the first question, and sits gloating with his triumphant ‘gotcha’ shutting down the discussion. It’s a lot easier than actually prepping.

Attitude is everything. Mine is that “I’m going to get through this.” “I am going to get my family through this”, for whatever the values of ‘this’ turn out to be. This illness. This job loss. This economic collapse. This worldwide pandemic. This civil disturbance. This race war. This gulag.

Whatever the S in the SHTF turns out to be, I’m getting through it. Skills, people, and stuff will help. You need some of each, and more besides. Keep stacking.

nick

(and not just get through it, LIVE and prosper afterward. Don’t forget that after you get through it, you’re just getting started…)

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Mon. May 24, 2021 – Last week of school, last week of freedom for me..

Well the forecast calls for light rain, but we all know that means SOME PART of Houston will be getting rain, but not necessarily MY part of Houston. 20% chance of rain here seems to mean that 20% of Houston will get rain… and the temps are low 80s, so pretty much just like yesterday.

I’m really hoping for a break in the wet so I can do some local auction deliveries.

I spent yesterday puttering around, doing indoor stuff all day because of the steady drizzle. The few moments without water from the sky were used to deal with trash cans, take trash out, and get some stuff indoors from the truck. I got some household restocking done (moving from stores to use areas), some closet clean up, a bit of PC work, and generally just moved from one small project/task to another.

Today I really need to get a bunch of stuff out of the house, and out of the storage unit, and to the auction. It would be nice to get some stuff done with the new truck too, like installing the dash cam and a radio, not high priority though. Of the two, the dash cam is probably the easiest because there are fewer choices involved and no need to move interior trim panels.

The main ‘hang over’ task is getting the pickup truck to the repair place. The delay has been because I need it to move stuff for the ‘pallet’ auction. I may have to suck it up and rent a trailer for the Expy and just get the Ranger on the road to repaired. A trailer is cheaper than a rental car and would let me keep moving on the other auction. At least my back and neck are back to ‘normal’.

I need to visit Lowe’s or HD too and do some actual shopping. I’ve got to replenish a couple of the plumbing fittings I used up, I’d like to see lumber prices with my own eyes, and I’m hoping to catch kerosene on close out. It’s that time of year, and I would like to have some in my stacks for the next cold spell. I’m pretty sure there will be another. Any garden veg plants that are left might be nice, and I’ll add some seed packets to the stack too. I’ve got room in the beds for some more plants, and more of the ‘salad’ veggies that you can keep planting every two weeks. If they have any citrus trees, I’ll grab one or two as well. Mine are not coming back from the freeze.

And on top of everything else, it’s time to get the hurricane preps going. First storm was already here, and moved up north off of the East Coast. Yikes. I need to keep moving the generator projects along, get some fuel rotated out, refill some propane bottles, maybe get a propane conversion for the Honda 3000, and on and on. Time flies.

If you haven’t already, start trying your hand at gardening, even if it’s just herbs and salad. If you’re already growing veg well, think about stockpiling some more of whatever you use, be it soil additives, pest control, or canning jars. Add some seeds to your stacks too. Just buying a seed vault isn’t enough, you need stuff that grows in your area, and you need practice.

If you haven’t already, think about beefing up your home’s physical security as part of your spring cleanup. Lights, cameras, driveway or gate alarms, landscape changes, and door and window reinforcements should all be on your radar. We’ve talked about specific small things you can do that will make a difference a few times; search or keywords should find the posts and comments.

If you haven’t already, sign up for a couple of email alerts from companies like Palmetto State Armory, Gunwinner, AR500 armor, and the like to see when ‘stuff’ come into stock. Glock pistols are available, and not at crazy inflated prices. Taurus G3s likewise. PSA had an upper/ lower self assembled kit rifle for a not crazy price this weekend. Memorial Day sales are just around the corner. Ammo has come down slightly in the last week too, when it’s in stock. If you are lacking, you still can get to stacking… but it will take a bit more money and time.

Which is the crux of the problem. How much time do we have, and how much money can we spend? Both are likely to be in limited quantity soon. As always the quality triangle still holds true, Good-Fast-Cheap, pick any two. And then stack.

nick

Let me know how does your garden grow?..

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Sun. May 23, 2021 – another week without SHTF, hooray!

Warm and wet, possibility of rain, probability of hot. Maybe some sun. Saturday was that way with parts of town getting a lot of rain, some none, and some a few showers.

I ran my errands,and the details are in yesterday’s comments. The best news was that I caught up with one of the local auctioneers and he’ll take more of my stuff next week.

I made a couple of good finds this week at the thrift stores, and while recounting the tale, it occurred to me that there is a bit of universal truth in the story. I make money, or live better on less, or score some great preps by RECOGNIZING or SEEING something the other guy didn’t. That is the universal truth- that by training yourself to recognize or see a particular thing, you will succeed where another fails.

Some people have been trained by their life experiences to see and avoid predators. Some to see and seize on financial opportunities. Some to see prey and victimize others. Cops are trained to see the crime. Prospectors learn to see the raw ore in the rock, and foragers train their eyes to see the mushrooms or the ginseng under a log or a leaf. People that handle a lot of cash often develop a great sensitivity and spot fakes that other people might not. Proofreaders and copy editors spot mistakes with the written word. In every endeavor, from sports to hunting,from crime fighting to committing criminal acts, people learn to see what others don’t.

The message for preppers is both simple and hard. You can learn to be more successful at every aspect of your life. Usually it takes a lot of experience and a lot of hard knocks, before you see what others don’t. Sometimes, you don’t even know that you are consciously doing it, and a good teacher or coach can draw that out, so you can expand on it and explain to someone else what you are doing, and learn to do it that much better. And that leads to the hard part. You need to practice, and you need to train, and you need feedback and coaching to shortcut the otherwise long and hard won knowledge.

Fortunately, the easier part is that there are more opportunities for learning, training, and coaching than there ever have been. Youtube (even though politically they are the enemy) hosts an astounding number of creators sharing the things they have learned the hard way. From gardening to self defense, small engine repair or electronics repair to leather working, from thrifting to crafting, sewing to welding, there is someone out there teaching you to spot the differences and see the things other people are missing.

Of course, if there is someone willing to have you learn from them in meatspace, you should do that too.

Take advantage of the time and resources available to increase your skills, no matter what they are, and to expand your abilities. It’s a lot cheaper to stack skills than 556 at this point in time too, so level up some skills, WHILE you keep stacking more stuff.

nick

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Thur. May 20, 2021 – slow progress is still progress

Rained all day Wednesday, mostly light drizzle with occasional heavier and lighter moments. Today will probably be similar, with temps in the high 60s or low 70s and more rain. I have plenty to do indoors…

Which is where I spent yesterday. I got a bit more cleaning and organizing done, and sorted paper for a couple hours. I should be able to power through the tabulating and aggregating that I need to do to get the taxes done.

I spent the evening watching a bunch of auctions close, including my “industrial” guy, with several of my lots listed. I was worried about the description on the lots that I was counting on to bring in the most money, but the buyers were smarter than I thought and it was fine. Everything else brought minimal money though. I am definitely seeing lower prices in the auctions now. SOME items, notably store returns and damaged packaging, are doing well, but the normal ‘estate’ stuff and ‘surplus’ stuff is very cheap. Had a chat with one seller and he thinks more people are discovering the auctions and are buying for their own use. It was mainly resellers for a long time. Buying for yourself, you can afford to pay more than a reseller, who has to make money on the item when HE sells it.

The resellers will have to shift gears or find a new supply in order to stay in business if retail buyers keep driving up the prices. I’ve seen it before in the surplus auctions. New money comes in, prices go up, because they are still far below retail and the new money thinks they are great, but eventually the new money stops buying or learns what the price SHOULD be, ie. lower.

The exceptions to the low prices are anything gun related or precious metal related. If it’s been in short supply, the auctions are satisfying the demand with some supply, and people are willing to pay for the privilege. Although I have to say, while there is still some oddball ammo showing up, and it sells well, there isn’t as much as last month. There are VERY FEW guns of any sort coming up lately.

My feeling is, more people are moving into the ‘secondary’ economy, shopping thrifts, estate/garage/yard sales, auctions, and other non-retail options. More people are moving into the ‘secondary’ economy on the sell side too, looking for a side hustle, or as a primary income source, or as just a way to feed their addiction to shopping. I’m seeing far more street vendors around my neighborhood, and in the places I drive through too. If you’ve been in a third world city, you know the ones- cheap flashy stuff to give to a date, flowers, water and sodas or “cocas”, mysterious food hanging from sticks hawked on street corners, clothes or shoes on tables in the parking lot of a closed business… and a lot more food trucks all over town. This is in addition to the used tire shops, the corner fruit stands, and the little kiosk places to do phone unlocking, card loading, vape refills, etc. All the cheap pleasures and necessities of daily life at the lower end of the economy.

We are well on our way down the slope, and yes, there IS ‘a lot of ruin’ in a country, ours especially, but absent something out of left field (benevolent aliens?), we’re on the slope, and the pace seems to be accelerating.

Think hard about what that might really mean for you, and your dependents. Then do some prepping. And stacking. Always stacking.

nick

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