Cold. Cold. Brrrrr. Cold. 34F when I went to bed, and cold when I woke up. Nice and clear and sunny, but windy and cold.
Spent half of yesterday sleeping in. No point in getting run down when there is all this sickness around. It’s gonna make getting up for school a real drag though, starting tomorrow.
Spent the other half piddlefarting around in my office. I’m trying to consolidate, and move stuff around, while finding stuff for auction that I have forgotten about. I did make a little progress. The rest of the family had a nice lie in, then managed to spend the whole day NOT completing their various projects, or cleaning up after themselves. Maybe my wife intends to get to that today.
Kids are gonna be tired today. I’m waking them up in the morning. Need to at least pretend we’re getting ready for the return to school tomorrow.
———————————–
I think I’ll do a couple of different year end things this week. Not today, because I started too late and wanted to get to bed, but there were some lessons learned in 2021 that I should capture and share. If you’ve got something you noticed that worked well, or badly, please comment about it.
For me the biggest difference was making the mental switch from ‘surviving the ongoing disaster’, to ‘this is how it is’, and getting back to prepping for whatever comes next. SOMETHING will be coming next. Pick your poison, and your timeline, but something bad is definitely coming. For most people it will arrive out of nowhere. For us, it will be one of the things we’ve already considered. Probably. And while we might not be ready for it, we’ll have given it some thought. Hopefully it will be something we’ve prepped for, that is survivable.
And that we stacked preps for.
nick
This weekend's supply chain weirdness was lasagna noodles being unobtainium at many stores immediately around us.
Something tradtional about lasagna and New Year's that I'm missing?
On a related topic, arbitrage is taking its toll on GameStop. Even with a gift receipt, the best they will do for you on a return is store credit for the recent sale price. To get a refund or credit on a charge card, you must have the original even though the gift receipt has *the exact same bar code* that, when scanned, displays the identical purchase details and options to the clerk.
I’ll make a return trip to the store. The replacement game will come from Walmart just for the inconvenience inflicted because GameStop is now an involuntary wholesaler for the EBay/Amazon crowd.
The GameStop sits across from an apartment complex, and, before Christmas, my wife got a rundown on the arbitrage games played by a software developer for a Fortune 50 company who lives in a unit with a clear view of the store. “He will even walk over when he sees someone unloading a used game system and make them a cash offer if he’s quick enough. The only times he’s not in the store following a Fedex truck delivery is if he’s in a Zoom meeting for work. We think he has a big house in Houston or Dallas.”
Absolutely pouring rain here today: I might have seen a bearded old man herding pairs of animals… Also my first day back to work after the holidays. Neither is conducive to the jolliest of moods.
On a happier note, I completed the paperwork to register my recent gift-to-myself (TM), namely some second-hand, but very nice, gubs. That is always a mood enhancer. Hunting season proper has finished (boo!), but that means clay pigeon season is about to start… Pull!
Short days and miserable weather generating a yen for comfort food, perhaps? Lasagna, moussaka, cottage pie… peasant food.
If one puts one lasagna on top of another, does one now have one lasagna or two?
Tyler Durden cowardice protecting more information about the teacher who self tested positive on the way to Iceland
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cnn-story-perfectly-captures-mass-covid-neuroticism-2021
Looks like the Dem female swing voters who live around here. Same thought process.
She knew she had been exposed.
Yeah, Biden. Trump tho.
Why the cowardice? Just ask Dr. Dean Edell what happens to your media career when you mess with a teacher in a public forum.
Fortunately, Airborne is still limited with their marketing antics thanks to Dr. Dean. Enjoy your retirement, sir.
The NFL beat reporters mostly lean left so they're getting an "I told you so" moment with Antionio Brown this morning. That has been coming for more than a year, but the writers were especially enraged when Brown got a pass on a fake vaccine card so this was eagerly anticipated by both local press and national media.
https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2022/01/02/the-end-was-always-going-to-be-ugly-and-needlessly-sad-for-antonio-brown/
The Yucs still won, with a last second catch by an inexperienced receiver subbing for Brown. That was the relevant story added to the pile.
–as this unwinds it's not gonna be pretty. I'm betting a whole lot of people will find that they somehow hold debt that will be affected.
n
Meat's gonna get even more expensive.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10364753/Biden-launches-crackdown-meat-industry-try-combat-inflation.html
n
It doesn't. The app does. The QR code allows certain old crotchety geezers to bypass fat fingering in the the number. But you probably knew that you crotchety geezer.
No app, no soup for you!
Here's an example of how the Lame Stream Media in conjunction with goobermint can totally destroy you:
Mainstream media begins character assault of Ashli Babbitt ahead of January 6
Unarmed, shot in the neck and killed. Can't defend herself, yet turds like Pelosi are trying to crush her image to keep the narrative.
I miss tRump.
@MrAtoz: I got an email that stated you had early bird check in on SWA 12/29/2021. I don’t think that is really any of my business.
LOL. I was forwarding to another Ray and thought it was his second addie. I'm not trying to date you or anything. Only Shot Girl ™
I did some grocery shopping and a trip to a Best Buy in Vegas. They still have the *social distancing* stickers on the floor. BB even had the arrows directing traffic. Because SCIENCE! Even the plexiglass shields. The joke was on us. Thanks Fuher FauXi. At least scrape up the stickers. Oh, wait, they are coming back in 2022.
Remember when pandemic meant mass die offs, not mass positive swabs? Remember when a vaccine meant you wouldn't get a disease, not just not as sick? Remember when vaccine meant you wouldn't spread a disease? As touted by plugs on down. Remember when you walked 5 feet to your table at a restaurant without a mask? How does walking the five feet with a mask change anything?
Our goobermint changed the meaning of vaccine. Now it's just injecting anything into your body. Whether it works or not.
Welcome to 2022, same as 2021.
>> Humans need the sun. There is a lot of emphasis right now in commercial lighting to mimic natural rhythms and variations with your office lighting. Since everything is moving to LEDs, you can do color changing and dimming with only a little bit of effort.
IDK if it will turn out to be a big money wasting fad, but SOME of it makes sense to me.
SOME people don't agree…
https://www.fastcompany.com/90691841/how-to-design-a-humane-dorm-hint-dont-let-a-billionaire-do-it
But…but…he's a billionaire…so there…
We'll see a week from today. The Supreme Court will hear arguments regarding the vaccine mandates on Friday and then issue a ruling on Monday, Jan. 10.
Overturn the mandates, and Biden is done.
He's done with the mandates upheld, but OSHA can raid the political opponents' companies looking for violations, which will make for an interesting election season throughout 2022.
plugs' EO on masking and social distancing on Fed property is coming up on a year in effect. That's basically a law. It should be reviewed by SCOTUS. SCIENCE!
Ah, now you have ruined my day. 🙂 Guess I am too old and ugly. I know you have standards.
I purchased $20.00 in lottery tickets for Powerball. It is up to $0.54 billion. Chance of winning is basically zero with a bunch of zeroes in front, but even worse if you don't have a ticket. Maybe I will win $2.00 like the last time I played.
AOC is drinking from the same viagra tainted well as GregF. Men don't want to date her, they might want to F her and dump her… seriously, crazy eyes and bad attitude.
She seems like the kind of person that would be parked outside your house at 3am, waiting for you to get home from dating someone else, so she can scream at you from the street….
n
I think Munger and the dorm are either an exercise in "how bad do you want my money?" or he wants to redo the rat experiment, only with undergrads.
n
Mainstream media begins character assault of Ashli Babbitt ahead of January 6
I noticed that this morning.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10363909/Ashli-Babbitt-martyr-Her-past-tells-complex-story.html
–but it's already a quarter width story, down from half width this morning.
n
Only with a paper bag. Maybe two. One for my head in case hers breaks.
Hmm, Amazon puts these in the "Tire Repair Tools" category.
https://www.amazon.com/UKBJCRF-Triangular-Anti-Theft-Emergency-Small-20PCS/dp/B099QJGQSB/
Pearls Before Swine: Transitioning From FOMO to FOLY
https://www.gocomics.com/pearlsbeforeswine/2022/01/03
Yup.
Ryan Reynolds with a little 'dig' at WD…
https://www.piratesandprincesses.net/ryan-reynolds-pokes-fun-at-winnie-the-pooh-coming-into-public-domain-with-mint-mobile-ad/
I hate learning lessons over and over again. I had to wrap new plumbing lines and rewrap existing plumbing lines at the office yesterday. I did not wear gloves. And I had gloves in the truck as the wife reminded me afterwards. One should really wear gloves when working with foil backed adhesive foam insulation. Got two hand cuts as a reward for my efforts. My hand skin is really getting thin as I age and cuts easily.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000VYK906/
a Good Choice to Protect Private Parking Spaces
–and they recommend “professional installation.”
Might want to scatter a few in the first 4 feet of grass inside your fence if things get sporty.
You absolutely shouldn’t scatter them around in the parking lot… or drop them off an overpass.
n
No one wants to be the university president who turned down Charlie Munger's money, especially in Los Angeles and the surrounding areas.
I never said anyone wants to date her. God no.
I've seen a lot in Corporate America in the last 30 years. You're really in trouble if you are up against that personality type who is also a smoker.
I don't recall seeing that stuff. I don't think it's enough insulation for my location. I use the split foam tubes.
Yes, the foam needs to to be covered from sunlight. Or you just re-do the job every four years.
A lovely 18F this AM.
“A lovely 18F this AM.”
You must be in a low spot out there in the boonies.
I didn’t bother with the faucet covers, but I made the mistake of leaving my hose connected to the spigot on the one faucet that gets hit with the north wind. If I can’t remove the hose later this afternoon, I’ll have to try again tomorrow when the high is supposed to be above 60 in North Austin.
At some point, the faucet covers will get used this Winter.
Who is GregF? Greg Norton's and SteveF's love child?
19F most of the day in Albany, probably a bit colder here. This is seasonally normal but almost 30F colder than yesterday. Plus the wind was a teensy bit unpleasant when I was walking my daughter to and from the bus stop. (Yes, of course she's old enough to walk the tenth of a mile by herself. But it's a few minutes we can have together to chat and have us (ie, her) not distracted by electronic devices.)
I don't have well water or use viagra either.
T therapy might make one prone to hallucinations and weird fantasies, but I haven't heard of it in viagra patients.
As I've pointed out before, management at the previous previous job took so much T therapy (my guess) that his hands shook all the time.
A POC. Brown in color. A butt baby.
No wind this morning, just a slight breeze. The wind would have blown off toupees yesterday.
I am in a low spot. Low enough that when my Yamaha 175 cc I forget the model name died, I coasted most of the mile from the paved road. There's a little rise in the middle that I had to push over. Hit 20 MPH for a bit.
Well, a little cooler here than the neighbors. But that beats having your patio furniture blown into the yard. The heavy cast metal stuff like you see at HEB.
I have everything wrapped. Usually by the end of October. I've had enough "fun" of dealing with broken pipes to last me. The mud is bad enough enough in the Summer. Just get naked. Make the temp about 30F and below with the wind blowing like crazy and oh hell no. Especially UNDER the house. Like last winter.
Last Winter was the coldest I've had here since moving here in '93. 1F is a whole different thing than 13F overnight.
Did you know ants in the electronic ignition box can cause a failure? Did you know the motorcycle used parts place on Burnet Road (don't know if they are still there, don't care) would sell a used part for $160? Twenty something years ago, no Internet back then. I have the shop manual for the bike. Not much of a manual. Enough to show me how the ignition module is wired.
And wa-la!!! $3 at a junkyard on South Congress yielded the module and some wiring harness from an old Plymouth. Works fine, the spark advance is off so not going to run 70 anymore.
I have a deal for you:
https://dilbert.com/strip/1994-04-08
LockMart has several groups inside the company that do nothing but cabling design. They have aircraft, spacecraft, missile, ordnance, etc. specialists.
Exclusive Interview with Billionaire Charlie Munger on Controversial UCSB Dorm
https://www.architecturalrecord.com/articles/15378-exclusive-interview-with-billionaire-charlie-munger-on-controversial-ucsb-dorm
The Munger Dorm Is Bad, but Why?
https://www.architectmagazine.com/design/buildings/the-munger-dorm-is-bad-but-why_o?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ABU_122121&
Little bit of hubris and elitism there, it seems.
@Greg Norton
Gallon of hot water poured slowly will thaw it out.
Ay yi yi, las naranjas…. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwA0t8yxQhs
GregN of course… and I'll bet $10 she smokes or did smoke. Bartender. She's young (ish) though so maybe after Cali banned smoking in bars… otherwise, yeah, big time smoker.
Spent the last couple hours going thru some shoeboxes of stuff. Found about $500-600 in stuff to send to my jewelry/collectables auctioneer. Maybe as much as $800… in addition to the 16 pounds of jewelry from goodwill.
n
>> I don't recall seeing that stuff. I don't think it's enough insulation for my location. I use the split foam tubes.
Yes, the foam needs to to be covered from sunlight. Or you just re-do the job every four years.
I use the split foam tubes and then wrap them in foil tape, extends the re-do time frame.
LockMart has several groups inside the company that do nothing but cabling design. They have aircraft, spacecraft, missile, ordnance, etc. specialists.
I am guessing that Tesla did not hire any engineers from LockMart.
>> I don't recall seeing that stuff. I don't think it's enough insulation for my location. I use the split foam tubes.
Yes, the foam needs to to be covered from sunlight. Or you just re-do the job every four years.
I use the split foam tubes and then wrap them in foil tape, extends the re-do time frame.
You know, if I was smart I would do that too. But, it only freezes here every other year or so and then it a light freeze so I only do a half ass job. But once a decade, we get the teens F or worse, the single digit F, and everything in sight freezes.
You assume that the engineers would want to work for Tesla.
Why go work a commercial pressure cooker when you can coast on DoD contracts for decades until retirement once you get that clearance.
>> Little bit of hubris and elitism there, it seems.
Yeah, f the students that will live there, we just want their money. Top degree awarded in 2019 was in Sociology (10.1%). Computer Engineering was a whopping 0.8%.
It is well known that Munger has "ghost' architects on the payroll who advise on his projects.
Munger would not do something to truly embarrass Berkshire Hathaway. He can get away with being something of a crank at his age.
"The Challenges Posed By Rising Lithium Prices"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2021/12/31/the-challenges-posed-by-rising-lithium-prices/?sh=6670f7a93af9
Oops. Aren't the electric batteries supposed to be rapidly dropping in price ?
I believe that the latest Tesla batteries are good for 4,000 to 5,000 charge cycles. Let's say ten years. So these vehicles will require expensive battery replacements or destined for the junk heap, making them even more expensive since the normal life for an American vehicle is over 12 years.
And currently I don't think there is any real recycling for lithium. Given it's high energy potential… I don't think you can just shred them…
n
Cathodes contain lithium chemically combined with other materials, primarily cobalt and nickel but also manganese, iron, and aluminum. The research is focused on separating these chemical compounds into pure waste streams that can be recycled.
Projection is 2 million tons of lithium batteries needing to be recycled every year in about ten years. Lithium content from my back-of-envelope is about 3.2% by weight. Too many assumptions making the numbers fuzzier and fuzzier to try to estimate other metals.
The major difficulties are:
1) Research is in it's infancy on cathode material separation. None of the players have more than one piece of the puzzle, or an economic interest making it more urgent. Similar to recycling wind turbine blades.
2) EOL lithium batteries are a classic diffused resource. 2MM TPY is about 100 lbs per capita in the U.S., or 50,000 tons/1MM population/yr. 1,000 tons per week, or about 30 gondolas on a train.
Note that's assuming you can fully discharge the batteries and they are safe to move in an open car.
3)The key milestone to look for is an operating pilot plant that can run continuously and process 1-2 tons per day using a water-based process that does not generate hazardous waste. My BOE says 5 years. Then another 3 to get the first 50,000 TPY plant.
4) Technical feasibility aside, the two biggest problems are NIMBY and stategov. There is no way such a plant is going to get permitted in SoCal. They are going to want to ship them out of state. If I was in a Cali border state I would buttonhole my legislator and start working now to make sure the foundations were laid for inspection and taxation of anything coming into my state from that direction. I'd also look at funding a state-local academic resource to follow the growth of the recycling technology and grow a knowledge base that was insulated from the industry.
The *average* age of the US fleet is 12 years old right now.
"Jan 3 (Reuters) – Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) delivered a total of 142 F-35 fighter jets to the United States and its allies, three more than originally planned, the world's largest defense contractor said on Monday.
The company was expected to deliver between 133 and 139 jets in 2021. read more
Last year, two new countries – Switzerland and Finland – selected Lockheed's F-35 for their new fighter jet programs. The company added that Denmark received its first F-35 in 2021 and the Royal Netherlands Air Force became the eighth nation to declare their F-35 fleet ready for initial operational capability."
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheed-martin-beats-its-f-35-delivery-goal-2021-2022-01-03/
That is a lot of expensive F-35s coming out of Fort Worth, Texas. And many are being sold to replace aging F-16s ? F-15s ?
The *average* age of the US fleet is 12 years old right now.
I misspoke. The average age of the US fleet is 12 years but I suspect that more expensive vehicles are kept running longer than Ford Escorts. Mostly SUVs and trucks.
3)The key milestone to look for is an operating pilot plant that can run continuously and process 1-2 tons per day using a water-based process that does not generate hazardous waste. My BOE says 5 years. Then another 3 to get the first 50,000 TPY plant.
The process of separating lithium from the other components may be so expensive that it may never be economical. And pure waste streams are incredibly rare from metal treatment processes.
"Scientists want to call Pluto a planet again — along with 150 other nearby space rocks"
https://thenextweb.com/news/scientists-want-call-pluto-planet-again-along-with-150-other-nearby-space-rocks
Yup, Robert Heinlein called these the crazy years. And he was correct.
@Alan
Amazon puts these in the "Tire Repair Tools" category.
Caltrops. Used for thousands of years. Bend a couple nails and spot weld them. Learned about them when I was playing SCA in my misguided youth.
@nick
Meat’s gonna get even more expensive.
Rabbits. Just saying.
Temps – we got them. -6 f currently and nasty out. Far worse north of us where the unrelenting powerful winds have wreaked havoc. From multiple commercial buildings torn up to semis tipped, it’s ugly. 5 f, high wind warning, and a substantial portion of the that community without electricity. Cold and dark.
I read that one wind reporting site had the post that holds the wind gauge bent in half by the gusts. Yikes.
-6 f outside the animal shelters. 28 f inside the chicken coop, 18 f inside the rabbit shelter. Not ideal, however pretty good considering the quality of shelters they’re currently inhabiting. Chickens have extra wood shavings and corn. Rabbits have lots of straw and some sunflower seeds.
it will creep up to 10 f this weekend. Heat wave.
Wow, that is cold and miserable.
Do the animals need anything like a heat pad? They make sturdy pads for old dogs to lie on with built in heat… seems crazy to me that chickens are fine at that temperature. I guess they are descended from dinosaurs.
I've got enough damage to my body that the cold hurts me a LOT. Hands, knees, hips, back and neck, it all hurts to some degree and works a lot less effectively when it's cold. Even holding a cold beer hurts. I would fight hard against moving to someplace with real winter. You are crazy tough to be up there in that!
n
Made the mistake of doing a bit of new year DIY, simple job,put a sun/rain shade over our front door, fixed by 4 expanding anchor bolts.
1. House to have been rendered with steel reinforced concrete eventually managed to get the 4 holes drilled in approx the right positions.
2. 10mm holes for 8mm anchor bolts,they should just push in ready for expanding-far chance! Now ensues 45 minutes of tweaking,scraping,muttering and cursing the gods.
3. Finally get the bolts through the frame and into the wall, 3 of them tighten and expand as advertised, 4th one- tightens and loosens, can't pull it back out.
4. I hate DIY, the DIY gods and all manufacturers of 'easy to fit' items.
Aaaaaarrrggghhh!
Happy New year everyone
@nick
Ive got rabbit specific heat pads that I got to try out with the pregnant does. They keep the nest boxes warmish. I haven’t had a doe kindle with them yet so still at crossing fingers stage.
The hens with larger combs and wattles will develop frost bite. I try to keep the coop around 32 f, too much warmer and they won’t venture outside. That ends badly. Too much colder and they won’t lay. Ideally my flock has small combs and wattles, with larger bodies and naturally heavily feathered. Choosing the right stock helps a lot. My current stock aren’t ideal. They were a desperate bid to rebuild my flock at Covids start. Only animals I could get were two dozen eggs from a bunch of mutt chickens. I hatched them, kept the hens, and here we are closing in on two years with our motley crew.
Ditto on the rabbits. I’ve got a quality doe, and recently added a quality buck. The rest are mutts and that impacts the effort and success of meat production.
Still – it’s not nothing and it can be improved overtime I hope.
Cold – it’s not a lot of fun. I can dress for it and plan for it. I’d rather be here with all of Alaska’s flaws and challenges than anywhere else. Despite our political baloney I -think- were better off than elsewhere. Grid collapse wouldn’t be pretty.
time will tell.