Mon. Feb. 27, 2023 – and a new week gets started

By on February 27th, 2023 in decline and fall, ebay, prepping

Damp.   Warm.   Springtime for Houston.   Today should be just like yesterday with a bit more cloudiness and maybe more damp.   Even if the sun wasn’t burning the sky and the heat wasn’t tightening my skin, it was kinda uncomfortable outdoors yesterday.   Right on the edge where every movement brings sweating…

So I did some stuff outside, more than I did the day before, and then called it quits and came in and read.   No chance of whinging on about not having time for what I need to do when I don’t use the time I am given.

For reasons I’m not going to go into, this past week has been loaded up with stress, which was suddenly relieved, but I’m feeling some whiplash.  Add to that today would have been my dad’s 90th birthday, and I’m feeling a bit out of sorts.  It’s leaving me filled with a certain lassitude that isn’t helping things.

Still, have to keep moving and push on through.

This week I am UN-stacking things and piling them up to sell at the hamfest.   Do I need to be able to equip a neighborhood with 2 way radios?   Do I need to be able to equip more than one neighborhood?  There is probably a reasonable limit to the stuff I really need to have on hand, and I’ve crossed it in some categories.  Blister pack GPRS and FRS radios is one of those categories.    Motorola handie talkies is another.   I can’t program them, so do I need bins filled with them?  No.  I need radios I can program.   I can use the money to buy those radios, or to improve some other area of preps.

It’s a bit like the guys who bought 22LR as “trade goods” or to “sell when the price goes up”.   Only they never do sell.   They never sell the cheap ARs or the Pelican cases of pistols they bought just to sell later either.   It’s far too easy to hold on to them, thinking the time isn’t right or that now that the drought has come, they need them more than they need to sell them.

It’s and easy trap to fall into.

Anyway, I’m hoping to sell far  more this time than I normally would be ready to sell.

Which will let me stack something else… or improve my position elsewhere.  Which is ultimately the goal.

n

79 Comments and discussion on "Mon. Feb. 27, 2023 – and a new week gets started"

  1. Nick Flandrey says:

    73F and only 92%RH so not as soggy as it could be, but pretty close.

    Kids are both out of bed without a crowbar, I’m kinda weirded out….

    n

  2. brad says:

    @Nick: There are a lot of different speed tests out there. Of course, the one from your ISP will show the best results, because they probably run it between the nearest node and your house. Possible problems:

    – ISP limits or congestion in-house. Their problem, and they have to sort it.

    – Congestion between your ISP and the speed-tester, or a bad speed-test

    About the only way I know to tell the difference, is to try 3-4 different speed tests. If all show the same results, then complain to your ISP.

    I just saw JimB’s recommendation of Ookla. It gives good results for me as well. My LAN is the limiting factor, actually, keeping me to 1Gbps. Our fiber is 10Gbps, which we don’t need. I could save Fr. 10/month by dropping to 1Gbps, but I figure paying for top tier means they won’t play stupid games…

  3. SteveF says:

    For reasons I’m not going to go into, this past week has been loaded up with stress

    You have a teen and a preteen daughter, or possibly two teens by now. No further explanation is needed.

  4. Greg Norton says:

    I am concerned too.  HEB had more stuff than it has had in three years.  We may be getting ready for another apocalypse.  I talked with my friend the head stocker, Will.  He said that there were still holes in the store but they had managed to hide them all now since they had so much stuff. 75,000 people shop at this HEB every week.  I told Will my apocalypse theory and he said no way, he just got the store back in shape and can’t go through that again. He has been getting three to five 18 wheelers a day to stock the store with. They did let him hire three more stockers though.

    Does the 75,000 include Curbside?

    All it takes at our store is one Winter weather warning or hurricane “cone of death” crossing Austin and the stock levels are decimated via Curbside … before the store closes early.

    In the freeze event at the beginning of the month, when I went to check the power at my house after Oncor reported it restored at 10 PM, I drove by a full Chuy’s parking lot but the HEB had closed at 5.

    Granted, Chuy’s probably paid mega overtime and I’m sure after hours food/tequila for the staff was involved, but it was surprising.

  5. Clayton W. says:

    WRY Exceptional Students:  The ADA should have a definition of ‘reasonable’ for accommodations.  I suggest +100% as a starting point for discussion, but +50% sounds good, too.

  6. MrAtoz says:

    Off to Vegas today for our annual training summit. All week, then a $500,000 big bingo game on Sat and Sun. Must worship at Our Lady of the Dauber.

  7. Greg Norton says:

    The system is 14 years old. I’m working on a complete replacement build.

    You almost inspired me to finish building my new home pc from parts I bought in August 2021 today.  But, I lost my inspiration and watched “Lie To Me” all day.

    I want sufficient machine capability to play with Windows images in Docker Desktop.

    My T470 laptop with the latest Windows 10 will run Docker with Linux images, but I believe Windows images require Windows 11 or one of the server flavors.

    At this point, I’m surprised that Microsoft has not “embraced and extended” the Docker runtime similar to what IBM/RedHat has done with Podman. I can think of some cool things which could be done with images if a runtime was part of “batteries included” Windows 10/11 Pro.

    I don’t doubt Microsoft is thinking about building Windows as an immutable OS similar to IBM’s ongoing Fedora Silvercloud experiment.

  8. Ray Thompson says:

    I suggest +100% as a starting point for discussion, but +50% sounds good, too.

    I suggest +10% as a starting point for discussion, but +50% sounds good, too.

    Fixed it for you. Anything beyond that should be paid for by the parents or provided by the parents. The school having to provide a private bus to transport one student, then a full time attendant at the school all day, is an unreasonable cost for the taxpayers. The student spends four years in high school, gets a diploma, yet does not know the first two letters of the alphabet. About the same as when they entered high school. How much time and resources were spent for little to no game.

    I get it that as a society we should help others. I have no issues with that. Where I have issues is the amount of resources spent. The end result should justify the expenditure.

    High functioning students that need help are treated very well by the local school. One boy tried out for, and was placed on the basketball team. He could not run well, he could not dribble, he could not hit the basket 1 out of 50 times. Not his fault.

    He was placed on the team anyway and I applaud the coach doing so. He attended every practice, every game, never got to play most of the season. He put fort the effort.

    On the last home game one of the seniors gave up his starting spot so the challenged student could come on to the court as a starter. The other team was informed of the student. The ball was tipped, the other team got the ball, the other team “lost” control of the ball to our team. The ball was passed to the challenged student. He sort of dribbled the ball down the court, traveling, double dribble, basically ignored by the officials and by the other team. He got to shoot at the basket, five times, before making the first basket of the game. Three of the rebounds were captured by our team, two by the other team and were “stolen” by our team and passed back to the individual.

    Last two minutes of the game, our team is ahead by 20 points. Our coach sends in the challenged student. He again double dribbles, walks and otherwise commits errors. Ignored by the officials, the other coach, players and fans. He does make one more basket after “stealing” the ball from an opposing player and fake challenged in his attempts to get to the basket.

    The joy on his face, the smiles, getting his picture in the paper, the loud applause from the crowd and from the opposing team fans, were worth the four points given up by the other team. Sometimes it is not the contest but the sportsmanship and concern for others that are more important than the game. His participation in the game did not affect the outcome, except for his self esteem, which was off the charts.

    Two years later I saw the youth at Outback. He was working for Outback as a greeter. Kudos to Outback for giving him a job, probably a made up job, but something he could do that made him feel good about himself. Ten years later he still has the same job. I like to think his participation in that one basketball game helped in his employment.

    14
  9. EdH says:

    There is probably a reasonable limit to the stuff I really need to have on hand, and I’ve crossed it in some categories.

    Who are you and what have you done with the real Nick Flandrey?

  10. Nick Flandrey says:

    Took me a while but I recognize the symptoms now, mild depression.

    —————————————————–

    @EdH, it’s got me all weirded out.   I can make an argument both ways, keep the stuff, or sell it, because if I DO need to equip a group, then I do really  need the stuff… but do I?  Will I?   Shouldn’t I be going thru it and keeping the radios that are already programmed for stuff I can use (ie business frequencies)?

    I feel like a ‘scope of work’ change is coming on, like when I shifted from short term disaster prep to long term economic decline prep…

    Hard to describe exactly what’s going on.   I have a strong feeling that some stuff needs to go.

    n

  11. JimB says:

    Nick, you likely know much more than I do about what Barbara did in the years after Bob’s passing. Just a thought…

  12. Geoff Powell says:

    I’ve been online since the mid-90s, initially via dialup to the ISP Demon Internet, of blessed memory.  Demon were one of the first of the tenner-a-month ISPs – their service cost the aforementioned £10 an month, plus phone charges (here in UK, we have never had free local calls, although we’re now getting close, with a bundle of voice minutes in your monthly line rental) and your online time was basically limited by your phone bill.

    Eventually BT, our (formerly) state-owned phone company started offering ADSL at (initially 512/128 kilobits!) which seemed like lightning after dialup. BT didn’t offer ADSL to the great unwashed public, you had to buy it via your ISP, which I did. And took all the speed upgrades offered, all the way to up-to-24/1 Mbit, although I never got more than 12.

    By this time, Demon had been the subject of several takeovers, eventually being owned by Vodafone. And the service quality fell steadily with each takeover. At this point, BT were offering “up to 76/20” VDSL but Vodafone were only “testing”.

    So I jumped to BT. And their VDSL is typically 60/20 uncapped, and I can use my own CPE, which is good, because BT’s HomeHub 5 is seriously lacking in features. And that went fine, although they bundle BT Sports, which I need like a hole in the head.

    Eventually I got fed up with paying for a service I never use, and moved to Everything Everywhere (EE) which is a BT subsidiary, but doesn’t bundle Sports, so cheaper. That move cost me an IP v6 connection, which, thus far, I haven’t missed, although EE’s mobile service provides IP v6, their wireline service doesn’t, despite being a wholly-owned BT subsidiary. I have to ask “Why?” but it doesn’t affect me.

    That EE service is about to rise in cost, by about £4+ a month so about £42 a month. 

    The only way to get faster wireline service is via Virgin’s hybrid fibre/coax, at signiicant extra cost. I don’t need that, so I’ll pass. Although FTTH altnets are available, none offer service to me, nor do they claim to do so.

    G.

  13. nick flandrey says:

    Pertaining to my comment yesterday…

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/02/los-angeles-county-scrubs-1-2-million-names-from-bloated-voter-rolls-thanks-to-work-by-judicial-watch/

    In the most recent of a series of progress reports to Judicial Watch, Los Angeles County confirmed that a total of 1,207,613 ineligible and inactive voters were recently removed from the rolls. Los Angeles County confirmed last year that over 634,000 of its inactive voters hadn’t voted in at least 10 years.

    Judicial Watch previously detailed that Los Angeles County had allowed more than 20% of its registered voters to become inactive without removing them from the voter list.

    That’s over a million registered voters in ONE county with 9,8M residents to take off the top of the number of possible voters.  12% 

    If the other top 10 counties have similar levels of over registration numbers, or even just 10%,, that would mean removing about 3.8 M names… which sure makes the number of votes cast look even more improbable.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties

    just sayin’.

    n

    Headed to the vet to get a checkup for the mutt.

  14. SteveF says:

    Got a phone for The Child a couple days ago. I’ll be teaching her to drive over the Summer and insist that she be able to call for help once she’s driving. (Wouldn’t have gotten it quite yet but wife came across a really good deal.)

    In approximately one day she transformed from a vaguely-normal kid into a Phone Girl. The phone is almost always in her hand or pocket and she’s looking at it at the slightest excuse. No Tiktok yet, SFAIK. Still, I may have erred.

    When we discussed it before, daughter said that a flip phone and prepay calls and texts would be all that she needs, but I figured that having a camera (in case of accidents or other problems) would be useful, plus GPS and what-not. Got a new iPhone with unlimited voice, text, and data. Haven’t noticed her complaining about the “unneeded” upgrade.

    Wife had concerns about getting it, though she’s the one who found the deal and added the phone to her plan. The kids of most of her acquaintances need to beg and whine and promise to do chores in order to even get a hand-me-down and here I am, giving her a new phone. It’s a reasonable concern, but I stick by my desire to get the kid some independence (from her mother) and my insistence that she be able to call for help at need. Also, I’d have been fine with giving her a used phone but all of my wife’s old phones are completely trashed.

  15. Nick Flandrey says:

    @Steve, the “find my iPhone ” app is reassuring.

    N

  16. ITGuy1998 says:

    Kids and phones: We got my son a  phone in middle school when he would started being home for an hour by himself after school (the horror!) We would have waited until he was driving otherwise. 

    Interestingly, his phone is also a life-saving device, as his glucose monitor pushes out data to an app on the phone, making monitoring a breeze. I can also see it, and get notifications if he’s too high (generally not a concern) or too low. Thankfully that doesn’t happen often.

  17. Clayton W. says:

    10%, 100%?  What’s a Zero between friends.  There HAS to be a limit!   And providing a full-time companion (even at minimum wage!)  is NOT acceptable.  

    Nationwide we average somewhere around $10,000 per student per year.  IIRC, a year is 180+ days in class.  The above mentioned companion (assuming $11.80/hr, 180 days, 8 hours) is some $17,000.  WAY too high, and I doubt they can use a minimum wage person.  Probably a Master’s in some soft science.  

  18. Lynn says:

    “Epic winter storm turns Southern California snow white; more rain and snow on the way”

        https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/epic-winter-storm-turns-southern-california-snow-white-more-rain-and-snow-on-the-way/ar-AA17Xwz5

    Yup, more global warming XXXXX XXXXXX climate destruction XXXXXX XXXXX climate change.

    The fact that kills me is that these idiots think that we, the human race, can control the climate.  Of course, the only real solution to that is to kill 99.9999% of the humans on the planet.  This solution will not work and will cause several problems, “A ‘climate solution’ that spies worry could trigger war”.

       https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-climate-solution-that-spies-worry-could-trigger-war/ar-AA17ZfcL

    “It sounds like something out of science fiction: A country suffering from heat, flooding or crop failures decides on its own to send out a fleet of aircraft to spray a fine, sun-blocking mist into the earth’s atmosphere, reducing temperatures and providing relief to parched populations. Other countries view it as a threat to their own citizens and ready a military response.”

    Hat tips to:

       https://drudgereport.com/

  19. Lynn says:

    “In approximately one day she transformed from a vaguely-normal kid into a Phone Girl. The phone is almost always in her hand or pocket and she’s looking at it at the slightest excuse. No Tiktok yet, SFAIK. Still, I may have erred.”

    Eh, the communication ability is highly worth it.  Especially if she will actually communicate back to you when you are looking for her.

    Personal data communication devices are highly addictive though.  I do not know how to get around that.  And Heinlein, et al, predicted this for decades before they showed up.

    We are fairly sophisticated monkeys. We like to fling poo at each other for the fun of it.

  20. Tony Russo says:

    @Ray regarding special education. I agree with you. When I lived in NY I was a school board member (elected position). At the time my district spend on average about $14,000 per student to educate kids. It was not unusual to spend more that 10 times that amount on special education kids. The costs involved did not justify the outcome. In NY all kids needed to graduate with a Regents diploma which required passing state tests. Since these kids were not capable of passing the tests they stayed in school until they aged out (21) causing addition expense. Probably one of the stupidest laws to ever be passed by the Feds was no child left behind.

  21. SteveF says:

    20-ish years ago, when the NYS board of regents and/or the idiot governor was ramming through the requirement that all high schoolers get a Regents diploma, there was speculation on whether teaching would improve dramatically, graduation would be denied to those who couldn’t meet the existing Regents standards, or standards would be lowered. I say “speculation”, but the hopey types were sure that teaching would be improved because of the new money being pumped into the schools, while the cynics – or as I like to call them, realists – were sure that the standards would be lowered.

    Within a couple years it was obvious which way it played out.

  22. Ray Thompson says:

    Probably one of the stupidest laws to ever be passed by the Feds was no child left behind.

    The parents of the kid think it’s wonderful. “Little Johnny is doing so much better now that he is in high school.” Uh, no. What the parents got was free babysitting. Going from being able to recite the first letter of the alphabet to reciting the second letter of the alphabet is not really improvement.

    Meanwhile, the other kids in class that get disrupted, have their learning compromised because of constant interruptions by little Johnny is not fair to the other students.  Little Johnny crapping his pants, spreading the feces on the desks, causing the entire room to be evacuated and a special cleaning team involved is not learning and harms the other kids. The needs of the one does not outweigh the needs of the many.

    School boards are so timid it is easier to pay tens of thousands each year for little Johnny than to deal with a lawsuit. One they would probably lose.

    I get that some kids need a little assistance. Some will never achieve what is considered a normal high school education. These kids are mostly functional, cause no problems, just have some physical or mental problems. These kids do OK for the most part. The students need to be evaluated on an individual basis. For those that will never get beyond the IQ and functional level of a 4-year-old, they do not belong in regular schools.

  23. nick flandrey says:

    Peter’s post

    https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-future-of-american-policing.html

    Source material

    https://www.activeresponsetraining.net/the-future-of-american-policing

    FWIW we already see some of this.   My subdivision boasts of its “24hr Constable Patrol”.   My area has the Business Improvement District pay for license plate reader cameras, and private security patrols.

    We have seen a dramatic increase in blacks in the area over the last 5 years, and a staggeringly dramatic increase in the number of hispanic men in the last one or two years.   It’s like the last doubling of the lily pads, where the pond goes from half covered to fully covered.

    n

  24. nick flandrey says:

    Been wasting time on the internet with this map

    https://communitycrimemap.com/ 

    The big apartment complex on the corner of our neighborhood has 76 reported assaults, sex assaults, and other violent crimes in the past year.   It is by FAR the worst of the big complexes, but all of them are bad.

    n

  25. JimB says:

    We had rain last week starting just after midnight Thursday, and ending Saturday about 10:00 AM. This was part of the big So Cal storm, but we were spared the amounts others received. We woke up Saturday to about a half inch of snow only on insulated surfaces, such as our roof. The ground was too warm, so it melted as it fell. First snow we have had in at least a couple years, but we haven’t had any significant accumulation for several years.

    The rain was steady to moderate for about 24 hours. I went out Saturday about noon to inspect. All was fine because it was never a downpour. I checked my sooper accurate rain gauge, an 8” diameter brass can in the yard. I dipped my finger in it and measured 1.5” of water. Usually, I need only measure a small fraction of an inch, so easy to estimate. It had been a while, so I checked my finger’s calibration. It is still almost exactly 1” from tip to the first joint, and 2” to the second joint. 1.5” is almost half of our normal annual rainfall (about 3.5”,) so that was a wet storm.

    We had a rainstorm in January, but my rain gauge blew off the box I had it on, so no measurement. That storm seemed like quite a bit more rain than this one, with lots of runoff. The drought is over!! Actually, after the January storm, I read that various measures, such as reservoirs and snow pack in the sierras, show levels just below or considerably over 100% of the normal annual amount. There is still more rain and snow season left. Yup, no more drought. You probably won’t see any celebrating in the news.

    To be fair, that moisture needs to soak down into our aquifers, where it does the most good. But we live in a land of extremes. When we arrived here in 1972, the news folks said we were in a five year extreme drought. It would take at least three years of normal precipitation to return levels to close to normal. We had one very wet year, and that did it. History repeats. Extreme.

  26. SteveF says:

    We have seen a dramatic increase in blacks in the area over the last 5 years, and a staggeringly dramatic increase in the number of hispanic men in the last one or two years.

    and

    The big apartment complex on the corner of our neighborhood has 76 reported assaults, sex assaults, and other violent crimes in the past year.

    I was just about to ask about changes to crime, litter, disturbances, booming music, and other signs of decay.

  27. Ken Mitchell says:

    Nick;  Minor depression is sometimes treatable with light therapy. An hour of BRIGHT full-spectrum light in the morning, and an hour in the EARLY evening.  A few years ago when I was still working full-time, I used to get up 45 minutes earlier than usual and sit under a bank of 4 ft fluorescents, half white, half “grow lights” to read my mail and surf the web.   Now, Amazon has one called “HappyLight” that seems to work for me.  

  28. MrAtoz says:

    Oberbefehlsleiter Yellen is in Ukraine:

    Biden’s Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen takes secret trip to Ukraine to meet Zelensky and promise MORE U.S. financial support to fight off Putin’s forces

    Yellen: Mein Fuhrer! Do you want more plugs-bucks!

    Zelenski: Ja!  More billions bitte.

  29. JimB says:

    @Ken, I could have used that light therapy when I lived in Michigan, but it was not well known in the 1960s. It was overcast most of the winter. We could go 60 days without seeing the sun. Worse, we called it a sunny day when we could look up and see the outline of the sun through the clouds. A minute or two counted. We didn’t even have to squint.

    Now I live in one of the sunniest places in the continental US. My dad moved here from Michigan after he retired. One day, he said it’s ALWAYS sunny here. I pointed to the only small cloud about fifty miles away, over a mountain, and said “Today is a cloudy day!” He laughed. A matter of perspective.

    I learned that people can move to a sunnier place without difficulty. Not so much the other direction. That light therapy has probably saved a lot of people from the blahs.

  30. MrAtoz says:

    Viva Las Vegas!

  31. nick flandrey says:

    It has been a series of overcast days.   

    When I lived in Phoenix, 3 dark days in a row would affect me.   I haven’t noticed it as strongly  since then but it could be contributing.

    n

  32. MrAtoz says:

    Not to be outdone:

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledges another $444 million to Yemen

    Let me guess: none of this comes out of the Inflation Expansion Act. Direct from your wallet to theirs.

  33. SteveF says:

    Direct from your wallet to theirs.

    Minus 10% for the Big Guy.

  34. CowboyStu says:

    Minus 10% for the Big Guy.

    And hunter biter.

  35. Greg Norton says:

    Direct from your wallet to theirs.

    Minus 10% for the Big Guy.

    Aw, you beat me to it. I’m busy today.

    That’s Ok. Yellen is also picking up Hunter’s paycheck.

  36. Greg Norton says:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/subprime-auto-lender-and-used-car-retailer-collapses-distress-cycle-finally-arrives

    $40,000 trucks with 2% paper and $500/month payments are history.

    Buried in the Berkshire Hathaway annual report is a mention of the scheme where Buffett plans to use his new control of Pilot/Flying-J to collaborate with GM on building new 2000 charging stations for EVs.

    I wonder how much Fed money goes into The Gecko’s pocket for that project.

    Ever since narrowly missing out on buying Oncor, The Lizard seems to be on a mission to insert himself into an important position in the Texas energy market somehow.

  37. Alan says:

    >> On the plus side I missed almost all of Seinfield and Cheers and Three’s Company. And Friends. And Dallas.

    IDK, maybe I appreciate Seinfeld more having been born and raised in NYFC but I do find much of it very funny.

    If you’re interested, here’s just one random ‘Top 25’ list:

    The 25 Best ‘Seinfeld’ Episodes, from ‘The Parking Garage’ to ‘The Contest’

    Of course, I don’t see the Soup Nazi, Sponge Worthy, George’s Wallet amongst my favorites.

    I have all the DVDs, but the DVD player currently resides on a shelf in the closet.

  38. Alan says:

    >> Headed to the vet to get a checkup for the mutt.

    Good reminder for all of us to schedule our annual checkups…

  39. Lynn says:

    Oberbefehlsleiter Yellen is in Ukraine:

    Biden’s Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen takes secret trip to Ukraine to meet Zelensky and promise MORE U.S. financial support to fight off Putin’s forces

    Yellen: Mein Fuhrer! Do you want more plugs-bucks!

    Zelenski: Ja!  More billions bitte.

    One wonders how big Zelenski’s Swiss bank account is now.  Has Mrs. Zelenski moved to Paris yet ?  Those houses along the Seine are very expensive.  And then the proper fashion is to have a house in the country also, preferably next to the Midi Canal with a recently updated canal boat.

  40. Lynn says:

    “Voter turnout in United States presidential elections”

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections

    In the last 92 years, Biden’s election was 62% of the voting age population (VAP) of the USA.  That was the second highest voting percentage of the last 92 years.  I just cannot believe that many people were inspired to go out and vote for Biden. I might believe that many of those people were inspired to vote against Trump though.

    You know what the highest VAP in the last 92 years ?  1960.  Camelot.  JFK.  62.8% of the VAP voted in that election.  I would believe it.  Young, war hero, moneyed, east coast Catholic, beautiful family. 

    I smell a dead fish in the 2020 presidential election.  The fix was in.  

  41. EdH says:

    @Nick:  Seems like you would want enough equipment for immediate family, and some friends/neighbors/backup…so maybe limit yourself to equipping about a platoons worth?

    And yeah, mild depression certainly can sneak up on one.  It doesnt happen often, but I won’t even realize what is going on until much later, when I start thinking: why didn’t I take advantage of some opportunity or maybe get some thing or other done at such a  time?

    Heh. Not being a high energy or overly emotional sort of person it is probably not even apparent to others…

  42. Greg Norton says:

    One wonders how big Zelenski’s Swiss bank account is now.  Has Mrs. Zelenski moved to Paris yet ?  Those houses along the Seine are very expensive.  And then the proper fashion is to have a house in the country also, preferably next to the Midi Canal with a recently updated canal boat.

    Zelensky isn’t going to be popular anywhere in Western Europe before too long.

    Collins Avenue on Miami Beach. He can hang with the Venezuelan elite expats who are still waiting for the US to invade and give them their country back.

    Bolsonaro fled to Florida, but … a stucco cr*p shack in Kissimmee? Really?

    He needs to talk to his CIA handlers.

  43. Lynn says:

    Peter’s post

    https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-future-of-american-policing.html

    Source material

    https://www.activeresponsetraining.net/the-future-of-american-policing

    FWIW we already see some of this.   My subdivision boasts of its “24hr Constable Patrol”.   My area has the Business Improvement District pay for license plate reader cameras, and private security patrols.

    We have seen a dramatic increase in blacks in the area over the last 5 years, and a staggeringly dramatic increase in the number of hispanic men in the last one or two years.   It’s like the last doubling of the lily pads, where the pond goes from half covered to fully covered.

    “I can’t disagree with any of Mr. Ellifritz’s prognostications.  They’re what I’m seeing myself, and what I’ve seen in many Third World nations over several decades.  They’re also part of why I’ve repeatedly warned my readers to get out of big “blue” American cities NOW, while they have the chance.  These trends will make themselves felt most powerfully and most quickly in those cities.  It’s already happening.  The further away you are from them, the less they’ll affect you – and the better you’ll be able to “take care of yourself and your family”, as Mr. Ellifritz advises.”

    “Forewarned is forearmed.”

    I have been wondering if I need to move my family away from Houston.  I live outside the third ring, the Grand Parkway, over 30 miles away from downtown Houston.  Surely that is far enough out.  Surely.

  44. Lynn says:

    “Elon Musk is once again the richest person in the world”

        https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-net-worth-passes-bernard-arnault-richest-person-bloomberg-2023-2

    “Arnault had unseated Musk last year as Tesla shares fell in December. The Tesla stock price hit a low of $108.10 on Jan. 3, 2023, according to historical data on Yahoo Finance. The carmaker’s stock closed at $207.63 on Monday.”

    Heh, I got a piece of that too.  I waited too long to buy and did not catch the bottom.  A falling knife is very hard to catch though.

  45. Lynn says:

    “Users recoil at new iPhone feature that slows charging when clean energy isn’t used”

       https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/technology/apple-users-speak-out-over-energy-saving-iphone-feature

    I smell a lawsuit coming to Apple.  Jobs would have never allowed that switch in the user interface.

  46. nick flandrey says:

    @lynn, I’m just inside the second ring, and it’s too close.   The problem for you is WHOLE LOTTA PEOPLE only a few roads.   With it being a bedroom community area, there isn’t the density of resources some other areas might have.   It’ll be empty stores REAL quick.

    Your wife has property out of town, why not reserve one of those and set it up as somewhere to go in extremis?

    n

  47. nick flandrey says:

    the voting age population (VAP) of the USA

    –I kept running into that too when I was looking for numbers.    It might be useful for some sociological investigations, but it’s not relevant when looking for voter fraud.

    The number of registered voters vs the number of votes is a much better metric, and the reason they rarely use it is that it looks RIDICULOUS.   Since the pool of voting aged citizens is bigger than the pool of registered voters (by some large margin, in an honest world) it hides the crazy high percentage of voters needed to have actually voted.

    And of course, as I pointed out, when you start reducing the number of registered voters, because of errors and fraud, the ratio of votes to registered voters looks even worse.

    n

  48. Greg Norton says:

    I have been wondering if I need to move my family away from Houston.  I live outside the third ring, the Grand Parkway, over 30 miles away from downtown Houston.  Surely that is far enough out.  Surely.

    I’ve seen the plans for toll lanes running east on 71, and the toll lanes keep pushing west on I-10. Figure on that being one continuous road in 20 years if it takes that long.

    I swear I remember reading something about Conduent being out that way. H1B always wants new/big houses, but there is a limit as to what kind of commute they will tolerate.

    What is going to become of the Compaq campus?

  49. Greg Norton says:

    I smell a lawsuit coming to Apple.  Jobs would have never allowed that switch in the user interface.

    Apple probably did it to appease the EPA and keep the FTC off their backs about the app store.

    The entire product line is disposable, now, but that may yet bite them if AI turns out to be something.

    And the power consumption from AI will be extreme. That isn’t getting a lot of press.

  50. drwilliams says:

    Lawsuit Forces Los Angeles County To Remove 1.2 Million Ineligible Voters From Rolls

    Under the agreement, Los Angeles had to send 1.6 million address confirmation notices to voters listed “inactive” on its voter rolls. According to the National Voter Registration Act — which requires states to maintain accurate voter rolls — states and counties must remove from their voting rolls voters who do not respond to such mailers and do not vote in the next two federal elections.

    https://thefederalist.com/2023/02/27/lawsuit-forces-los-angeles-county-to-remove-1-2-million-ineligible-voters-from-rolls/

    Lawsuit filed in 2017. Forced the county to send the mailers. Then we had to wait for two federal elections.

    whoop-eee-shit

    Where is the analysis about how many of the ineligible voters did, in fact, vote?

    How many requested ballots?

    The Solution to Ballot Fraud

    Our UnDeliverable Ballot Database identifies every location that will receive a ballot — but there is not someone there to legally vote it. 

    The Immovable Object is visibility of electoral data for any citizen from his phone — cross searched against property tax records — and dozens of other databases — at silicon speed.

    When citizens, of any party, realize that their county registrar has voters living in banks, 7-Elevens, public parks, and their own homes — to their surprise — they experience what disenfranchisement means.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/02/the_solution_to_ballot_fraud.html

    Six Million Americans Are Registered to Vote In Two States

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/02/six-million-americans-are-registered-to-vote-in-two-states.php

    Registrations are dated. How many a) voted twice?, b) registered in State 1, registered in State 2 (legally invalidating their registration in State 1), then voted in State 1?

  51. nick flandrey says:

    Compaq’s campus was way north of Houston, half way to Conroe, not west and south.  Unless they had one I never visited?    That’s not out of the realm of possibility.

    Toyota has a plant/factory out west on the I-10… and Caterpillar does too.

    n

  52. Greg Norton says:

    Toyota has a plant/factory out west on the I-10… and Caterpillar does too.

    What does Toyota build in Houston?

  53. Lynn says:

    Over The Hedge: Is The Pandemic Over ?

        https://www.gocomics.com/overthehedge/2023/02/27

    Oh no!

  54. Greg Norton says:

    Unless the courts find a serious problem with the redistricting, the Dems are out of power in Florida for at least a decade. However, you would think that they need to get serious about some fresh leadership.

    https://www.wlrn.org/state/2023-02-27/nikki-fried-aims-to-end-30-years-of-losses-as-new-leader-of-embattled-florida-democrats

    As I’ve noted before, however, the arrogance of the Republicans in Texas reminds me of the Dems in Florida 30 years ago, when they controlled both chambers of the Legislature, the Governor’s Mansion, Supreme Court and all but one state-wide elected office.

  55. Lynn says:

    “The Tigris Leaps (Perry Rhodan #63)” by Kurt Brand, translated by Wendayne Ackerman
       https://www.amazon.com/Tigris-Leaps-Perry-Rhodan-63/dp/0441660460?tag=ttgnet-20/

    Book number sixty-three of a series of one hundred and thirty-six space opera books in English. The original German books, actually pamphlets, number in the thousands. The English books started with two translated German stories per book translated by Wendayne Ackerman and transitioned to one story per book with the sixth book. And then they transition back to two stories in book #109/110. The Ace publisher dropped out at #118, so Forrest and Wendayne Ackerman published books #119 to #136 in pamphlets before stopping in 1978. The German books were written from 1961 to present time, having sold two billion copies and even recently been rebooted again. I read the well printed and well bound book published by Ace in 1975 that I had to be very careful with due to age. I bought an almost complete box of Perry Rhodans a decade or two ago on ebay that I am finally getting to since I lost my original Perry Rhodans in The Great Flood of 1989. In fact, I now own book #1 to book #106, plus the Atlan books.
       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perry_Rhodan

    BTW, this is actually book number 71 of the German pamphlets written in 1963. There is a very good explanation of the plot in German on the Perrypedia German website of all of the PR books. There is automatic Google translation available for English, Spanish, Dutch, Japanese, French, and Portuguese.
       https://www.perrypedia.de/wiki/Fehlsprung_der_TIGRIS

    In this alternate universe, USSF Major Perry Rhodan and his three fellow astronauts blasted off in a three stage rocket to the Moon in 1971. The first stage of the rocket was chemical, the second and third stages were nuclear. After crashing on the Moon due to a strange radio interference, they discover a massive crashed alien spaceship with an aged male scientist (Khrest), a female commander (Thora), and a crew of 500. It has been over sixty-nine years since then and the Solar Empire has flourished with tens of millions of people and many spaceships headquartered in the Gobi desert, the city of Terrania. Perry Rhodan has been elected by the people of Earth to be the World Administrator and keep them from being taken over by the robot administrator of Arkon.

    Once again the Robot Regent of Arkon is trying to find Perry Rhodan and Earth by watching the transitions of the Solar Empire spaceships. Perry Rhodan’s new friends, the Swoons aka the Pickle People, have built a new transition vibration damper for the transition structural compensator. The Solar Empire builds a new spaceship named the Tigris to test out the new transition vibration damper by flying to an Arkonide system and seeing if they are detected. 

    Two observations:
    1. Forrest Ackerman should have put two or three of the translated stories in each book. Having two stories in the first five books worked out well. Just having one story in the book is too short and would never allow the translated books to catch up to the German originals.
    2. Anyone liking Perry Rhodan and wanting a more up to date story should read the totally awesome “Mutineer’s Moon” Dahak series of three books by David Weber.
       https://www.amazon.com/Mutineers-Moon-Dahak-David-Weber/dp/0671720856?tag=ttgnet-20/

    My rating: 4.0 out of 5 stars
    Amazon rating: 4.3 out of 5 stars (2 reviews)

  56. Nightraker says:

    Re: New, young drivers

    A suggestion worth considering:  First car should be a manual shift.

    You need 4 working appendages and must pay attention to operating the vehicle and the surroundings.

    OTOH, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find a stick shift car.

    My first car was a 3 speed manual V8  1975Jeep.  Stalled it 3 times negotiating a somewhat uphill bendy right turn lane at a stop light getting it home.  Calmed down and powered through.  Had a couple or three stick lessons with a very patient friend’s 4 speed F-150 and a couple years of automatic experience.  Still did silly things like eating a Big Mac while city driving and managing the car and other stories that needn’t be reported.  1 accident when a Toronado , (remember those? Eight feet of hood) turned onto the main drag from behind a visually impenetrable school bus.  Left plenty of rubber on the road but couldn’t stop in time.

  57. Lynn says:

    As I’ve noted before, however, the arrogance of the Republicans in Texas reminds me of the Dems in Florida 30 years ago, when they controlled both chambers of the Legislature, the Governor’s Mansion, Supreme Court and all but one state-wide elected office.

    “Texas judge to rule on abortion pill used by millions of Americans”

        https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mifepristone-lawsuit-texas-judge-to-rule-on-abortion-pill-use/

    “A federal judge in Texas is set to rule on a lawsuit that seeks to restrict access to one of the two drugs typically used to induce a medicated abortion. The decision could impact 40 million women nationwide, making it the most consequential legal ruling since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.”

    “More than half of all abortions in the U.S. use mifepristone.”

    3
    1
  58. Lynn says:

    “Elon Musk tweets support for ‘Dilbert’ creator after racist tirade”

        https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/27/business/elon-musk-scott-adams-defense/index.html

    “In response to a tweet about the controversy, Twitter owner Musk said Sunday that the “media is racist.” He didn’t criticize Adams’ comments, and Musk said without evidence that for a “very long time, US media was racist against non-white people, now they’re racist against whites & Asians.””

    Adams’s syndicate dropped him yesterday.   http://www.dilbert.com is owned by the syndicate so it will be going down at the end of the week. 

    Also 

        https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-accuses-media-racism-after-newspapers-drop-dilbert-cartoon-2023-02-26/

    Ah, Adams is going to move Dilbert to
    https://scottadams.locals.com/
    his subscription website. Yup, Dilbert is moving behind a paywall.

  59. drwilliams says:

    The collapse of South Africa

    So how did all of this happen? There were a variety of factors involved, including government corruption and organized crime. But a couple of years ago, in order to stay in the good graces of the world banks and the global climate cabal, South Africa agreed to ambitiously reduce its carbon footprint. They used to mine a lot of coal and other desirable resources, but their output has plummeted. Don’t worry, though. They’ve blown some serious money on renewable energy. You can see how swimmingly that’s working out.

    South Africa is on the verge of societal failure. And if you think it couldn’t happen in the United States, you’re kidding yourself.

    https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/02/27/the-collapse-of-south-africa-n533503

    I’m sure all of those greens and anti-apartheid protesters around the world will be mobilizing to help.

  60. nick flandrey says:

    @greg, I think they assemble pickup trucks at that plant.  

    n

  61. Greg Norton says:

    @greg, I think they assemble pickup trucks at that plant.  

    Tundras are in San Antonio and Tacomas went to Mexico.

    The Japanese know better than to let the Mexicans assemble the engines and transmissions for the Tacoma, however, so that might be what’s going on in the building.

  62. Ken Mitchell says:

    South Africa is on the verge of societal failure. And if you think it couldn’t happen in the United States, you’re kidding yourself.

    On the VERGE of?  Well over the edge, I’d have said. Intelligent and productive people have been leaving for about 20 years now, and the remainder are trying to fortify their compounds to withstand the inevitable attacks.  And failing, mostly. 

  63. Greg Norton says:

    A suggestion worth considering:  First car should be a manual shift.

    CAFE going to 50+ MPG means no more standard transmissions outside of sports cars.

    People can’t shift as accurately as the machine, and Automatic Start Stop (think about that acronym) only works with automatics.

    Even worse, if 55 MPH becomes the stated speed policy of the Feds, the high speed MPG test will go away at the EPA, and the fudge factor will return for calculating highway mileage. Do you think they’re going to go easy on standard transmissions?

  64. nick flandrey says:

    Intelligent and productive people have been leaving for about 20 years now,  

    – describes America’s industrial rust belt states too.   Detroit, forex…

    n

  65. Alan says:

    >> Now I live in one of the sunniest places in the continental US.

    Facing one more winter in NYFC was the final straw that got us to FL. 

    Hurricane Irma started the wheels turning to get us here to the desert. Every day of sunshine is a joy. Still hard that S2 is still back East, but that’s what planes are for. 

  66. Alan says:

    >> And yeah, mild depression certainly can sneak up on one.  It doesnt happen often, but I won’t even realize what is going on until much later, when I start thinking: why didn’t I take advantage of some opportunity or maybe get some thing or other done at such a  time

    Or a “trigger event” that brings on anxiety which can lead to depression. Many advances in treating both. 

  67. Alan says:

    >> I have been wondering if I need to move my family away from Houston.  I live outside the third ring, the Grand Parkway, over 30 miles away from downtown Houston.  Surely that is far enough out.  Surely.

    How many years until the next ‘100 year’ hurricane there?

    Are you a MAD first strike target? 

  68. nick flandrey says:

    Huh, didn’t realize anxiety was a  trigger.    That explains a lot.   

    Work and forward movement should help.   Achievements, even baby steps, usually lift my mood in any case.

    n

  69. nick flandrey says:

    Surely that is far enough out.  Surely.

    well that depends on the threat.   During a hurricane evac, a whole lot of people head west on the 10, going right past you.   Unless they can’t get past.

    I think you are far enough to avoid the golden horde, for a while anyway, the vastness of suburbia acts as a buffer, as does the undeveloped surrounding areas.   There aren’t any geographical features limiting approach or providing a bulwark though either.

    If SanAntonio went to war with Houston, they’d fight the battles in your town.  (or if elements of either place did… )

    The vast wide open of your area gives me the heebies.

    n

  70. Alan says:

    It’s late and all good commenters should put their ‘can’t stop reading’ books down for the night and head off to bed. Nite all 🙂

  71. Lynn says:

    @lynn, I’m just inside the second ring, and it’s too close.   The problem for you is WHOLE LOTTA PEOPLE only a few roads.   With it being a bedroom community area, there isn’t the density of resources some other areas might have.   It’ll be empty stores REAL quick.

    Your wife has property out of town, why not reserve one of those and set it up as somewhere to go in extremis?

    During the fake pandemic, people cleaned out our local HEB within 24 hours.  But, we have three more HEBs within 10 miles.  But they were all cleaned out too.  We have 250,000 people living within 10 miles.  Plus two extra size Krogers.  Plus three Walmarts, a Sams Club, and a Costco.

    The wife only has one property left in Texas, in the Dallas area.  Definitely not a bugout place, worse than our house.  She has two lots in Missouri that are a real pain. Everything else is sold.

    My primary bugout place is my office building. But it did not have electricity during the Feb 2021 freezeup. My secondary bugout place is my parents house in Port Lavaca. 12,000 people in the city, 22,000 people in the county, they have an HEB and a Walmart.

  72. Lynn says:

    CAFE going to 50+ MPG means no more standard transmissions outside of sports cars.

    People can’t shift as accurately as the machine, and Automatic Start Stop (think about that acronym) only works with automatics.

    Honda’s Start Stop system first was only available with a standard (the Insight).  Probably still is available with both transmissions.

    Ford’s Start Stop system restarts the motor when you take your foot off the brake.  That could be easily adapted to a standard if they wanted to.

  73. JimB says:

    Far enough from Houston? I had an acquaintance who retired to a remote area somewhere in West Texas. I never had an address or a city. He loved it, but died shortly of Alzheimer’s disease. That’s not a comment on West Texas, just a fact.

    A couple we know moved from here to Mountain Home, Idaho, to be near their kids. They seem happy now, but it took them over a year to partially adjust. Funny, they used to go somewhere near there every summer for a couple decades for church projects, so I would have thought they would have had less trouble. They say it rains and snows a lot, and is colder in winter.

    Then, there is always Utah. Right.

  74. Lynn says:

    How many years until the next ‘100 year’ hurricane there?

    Are you a MAD first strike target? 

    We had a Cat 2 hurricane last September 2021.  Knocked out power in my neighborhood for several hours.  We had the genny auto start and do not even know the power was out.

    We had hurricane Harvey in August 2018.  But it was the worst caricature of a hurricane, a hurricane that turned into a very large tropical storm that extended over the Houston area and the Gulf of Mexico.  It sat there and pumped water out of the Gulf and dumped 36 inches to 60 inches of rain in the Houston area over a couple of days.

    We could have another Cat 5 hurricane in three months to nine months (June to Nov).  Or a tropical storm any time during the year.  The worst tropical storm in the Houston area occurred in December, 1913.

    I have no idea about the MAD first strike target.  In fact, I am not sure that I want to know.  Eight million people live within 60 miles.  Ellington AFB 30 miles away where I watched four F-16s take off one day on afterburner from my front yard and head for 40K feet going south, could hear them inside my house.  STP Nuclear plant 35 miles away.  25+ ??? refineries and very large chemical plants within 35 miles.

  75. Lynn says:

    I think you are far enough to avoid the golden horde, for a while anyway, the vastness of suburbia acts as a buffer, as does the undeveloped surrounding areas.   There aren’t any geographical features limiting approach or providing a bulwark though either.

    I live and work on the west side of the Brazos river.  If we could drop all five bridges (4 for hwy 59/I-69 and 1 bridge for the Grand Parkway), we could isolate from most of Houston.  But, that is wishful thinking.  That would leave us with two HEBs, a Walmart, and a Kroger.  They would all be cleaned out within 24 hours though.

    I live and work four miles south of I-69/Hwy 59. 24 miles south of I-10. Yup, I am out here in the sticks for now. Until they build these 34,000 new homes on 50 foot lots that they are starting.

    I can’t move. I need the doctors for the daughter which has turned into a freaking disaster. And I need a good heart doctor to keep me alive, been 11 years since the last heart attack, am overdue. I would like to move to El Campo or Victoria but I would be going by myself.

  76. JimB says:

    Stick shifts? You are forgetting twin clutch transmissions. Probably not an option on the more pedestrian cars, but they can work quite well for sports-minded cars. They usually offer both automatic and manual override operation with paddle shifters. I have never driven one, but would like to give one a try. Don’t think I would like it.

    I got a ride in a BMW M3 with an automated manual trans. This had a regular clutch, but no pedal. The whole thing was automated. It worked well under heavy throttle, but was rougher under light throttle. I wouldn’t want one either. I think Renault pioneered this decades ago.

    And of course, there is the venerable torque converter with a planetary gearset behind it. With lockup, these offer both the torque-multiplied launch (think drag racing) and cruising efficiency. My favorite.

    It is sad when the automakers are scrambling for that last iota of mpg. The added life cycle cost is very high.

    Don’t forget the engine complexity needed to get ever-so-slightly more mpg. I started watching the “I Do Cars“ YT channel about a year ago. The guy tears down scrap engines to sell parts, and is quite entertaining for us car geeks. The complexity of some of those engines is astounding. Way beyond any semblance of return on investment. All for the sake of CAFÉ. Nuts!

    I recently rented a car with auto stop start. Hated it, but I found that I could keep the engine running with slight pressure on the accelerator while stopped. Problem solved.

    Finally, a lot of fast food restaurants in our town are being rebuilt to add or increase drive through service; some have almost no inside seating. I wonder what the whacko environmentalists think of all those idling cars in the drive-through lanes. How long can a car with auto stop start maintain the AC or heat on battery?

  77. dcp says:

    long can a car with auto stop start maintain the AC or heat on battery?

    My experience with a 2018 Ford C-Max has been ten to fifteen minutes engine-off for either of those, before the engine starts back up to idle again.

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