Sunny and cool, warming later. I hope. That describes Sunday pretty well, with highs in the 70s. To bad I was inside all day.
I did get a bunch done. Had the water off for 8 hours. Never could have done that if the kids were here. I summarized what I got done in comments yesterday. Despite the late start, and late finish, I feel good about it.
Today should get me that much further along, and maybe I’ll have time to do some cleanup so the bride doesn’t walk into a mess with her folks next weekend. Working kitchen and bath, oh my. I’ll give it the old school try…
The sense of urgency hasn’t left me. I noticed that I haven’t been posting much in the way of prepping. I think it’s because we’ve been living in the slow motion disaster that was chinkyflu for the last (almost) 3 years. We were prepping for that, and prepping for it to get worse. Then we got into a sort of holding pattern where we were just glad it was getting better. With no clear end, it wasn’t like a storm that passed and now we can cleanly move on. So it drags.
Meanwhile, I’ve been focused on my personal life, getting the BOL up to speed mainly. This year flew by. It’s pretty clear though that we are in an economic downturn (at best) or the beginning stages of an economic collapse, (bad), or the early part of a world changing war (worst). There is plenty of prepping still to be done for any of those scenarios or all of them. It just looks different than prepping for a specific event.
Conserve your money and resources. Accumulate everything you think might be in short supply, including friends. Plan for a long period of badness, with varying intensity. Think about WWII on the homefront, the Great Depression, the Carter malaise… all those things were survivable, and most people did. Some didn’t. Some people did very well. Some lives were changed completely. The WORLD changed, and it will again.
Will some new place become ascendant as the US did after WWII? We survived with our manufacturing intact, greatly expanded in fact. And we absolutely killed it in a time when making stuff was the basis of prosperity. I don’t know what comes next, but I’m pretty sure it will be different, and very few people will see it coming.
Plan to get through what is coming. Vow to not just survive, but to THRIVE in what comes next. To my mind, that’s a lot more inspiring than just enduring. But. If all you can do is endure, then do that. Do it better than most, and make it through. That is key. Be here for the boom that follows.
Stacks will help.
nick
And the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
Ding. Ding. Ding. Ding. We have a winner.
Though, in the case of the NYFC project, the company I worked for blew a huge demo/milestone step protecting our group’s Wally from consequences for his being … Wally! … for a reason I still don’t understand. He had the PANYNJ’s Kabuki card, required to access the systems online or in person, but other people had those cards so they weren’t impossible to get as long as you sprayed enough money around.
The companies in the industry are their own worst enemy, and a lot of problems begin with the “consultants” working for firms clustered around, strangely, Kansas City. There seems to be a revolving door between vendors, consulting firms, and the government/private entities running the roads.
Always hard to predict the future. Looking around the planet, though, I don’t see any obvious successors to the West. China has done amazing things over the past 50-60 years, but may be running out of steam. The pics of them tearing down some of their designer cities kind of makes the point: central direction of an entire economy has its limits. To progress further, they need to provide people with individual incentives. Which means more freedom. Which is antithetical to a dictatorial government.
The US? Parts are doing well, parts are doing terribly. Can it be fixed?
Europe? The central government of the EU is a political monster that needs to die. If they would roll back to the Common Market, I would give Europe better chances. However, politicians almost never voluntarily surrender power.
Places like Canada, Australia, Switzerland? All too small to take on any sort of dominant role.
tl;dr: Things will continue muddling along for a while. At least, until the next disaster strikes.
Potential next disasters? Right now, the biggest danger is Russia pushing a red button out of desperation. If they don’t, they will probably finish throwing their troops into the meat grinder next Summer, and retreat with their tail between their legs.
After the Ukrainian war is over, Turkey may be forced out of NATO. But NATO is the only thing keeping Turkey from serious attacks on the Kurds, so that would lead to renewed flare-ups and fun in the Middle East. Fun for all…
Thousand year grudges which the US and Western Europe don’t begin to understand.
People I know who served in the US Air Force and did real jobs at MacDill had serious respect for the Turkish military people who would show up for training back when the base still had F16s and hosted international buyers learning the maintenance of the aircraft. As with the Iranians, Turks are not Arabs and have no interest in living in the 8th century.
As Dr. Pournelle pointed out many times, the Turkish Army used to keep the government in line with occasional coups. The last 20 years have been something of an anomaly in that the leadership has not been forced out at gunpoint.
Who lies more: plugs or the LameStreamMedia:
Commentary: The Serial Lying Emperor Has No Clothes
Beaux…Beaux…
Should I believe “science” on masking, or FauXi:
Not Even N95 Masks Work To Stop Covid
I’m sure this study will be dismissed by the LSM to cover for CDC/WHO experts. I get wearing a mask when YOU are sick and hacking/sneezing droplets. A virus appears to go right through. The only way to be safe is to wear a plastic bag over your head.
You’ll wear your mask and like it, Skippy.
The article deliberately and blatantly misinterprets the study. What the study actually did:
It did not consider the “no mask” option.
The direct meaning is obvious: If you are going to wear a mask, there’s no need to go for an N95 mask. An ordinary medical-quality mask will do just as well.
If you must extrapolate beyond the study, consider: In both groups, about 10% came down with COVID. Considering that they were continuously exposed to sick patients, that’s a remarkably low number. If anything, that indicates that properly worn masks are rather effective.
As long as the box of medical-quality masks is not marked with a precaution against using the contents to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses … like Covid.
No, it doesn’t
This is just your guess. I could just as well guess masks aren’t that effective. Yes, yes, that is what I’m going with. Haven’t masked in about a year and a half. Traveled all over for biz, took a cruise, tested for COVID twice, results negative.
>> Haven’t masked in about a year and a half. Traveled all over for biz, took a cruise, tested for COVID twice, results negative.
But what’s missing is definitive knowledge of the presence or absence of any of the Covid virus where you were out in public.
Slow morning, watching the NASA Channel count down to Orion’s return to earth burn.
Call me old fashioned but while their “data driven animation” is cool, I kind of miss Walter Cronkite hand holding plastic Revell models.
With Wally Shirra telling him which way to point them.
But what’s missing is definitive knowledge of the presence or absence of any of the Covid virus where you were out in public.
I posted a week ago my SIL on the cruised was diagnosed with COVID. Using “extrapolation”, since she was only in Miami one day after the cruised and was already feeling sick, she got COVID on the cruise.
I didn’t track it, but plenty of people where I’ve been traveling (mostly schools) have had COVID outbreaks during our presence. Circumstantial evidence, tho.
I’m about as good at predicting the weather as the TV weather liars… cool and misty this am. Still. Can’t see across the lake. Pretty neat actually, with red leaves falling gently, and the weird silence.
66F with 97%RH and overcast sky.
—
As regular readers can probably guess, my back is KILLING me. I started to notice as I wrapped up yesterday, then did some stretching before bed, slept with a rolled towel instead of pillow, and stretched again before even setting foot on the floor… still hurting. Sitting on the floor, hunched under cabinets, reaching forward and up, laying on my back or side… well, even when I was younger that was painful. Now that I’m older? Yikes.
Headed into town shortly. Making my list now…
n
And you haven’t been detained for interrogation?
–now do it again in two weeks. Then again in another county, and again… Total cost? $10 in ammo. Cost to providers and citizens? A whole lot.
This is asymmetrical warfare. This is what attacks on infrastructure will look like. And they will become much more common as people figure out you can to this.
No matter who did this attack, the lesson will be learned and shared.
n
Got backup?
Re CV infection, what is almost never taken into account is an individual’s resistance to viral infection, especially colds and influenza. CV is a similar virus.
There are various studies, of admittedly varying quality, that link susceptibility to serum vitamin D levels. People with high enough levels are much more resistant to infection. Taking 10kIU of D3 daily, preferably with some other specific vitamins, has been demonstrated to dramatically reduce infection.
At the same time, the worry about toxicity of D3 and A has been answered. In short, it seems safe to take much higher levels of D3 for at least a year. To be safe, however, blood tests can confirm serum levels.
I am not a medical professional, YMMV, etc. We certainly need more studies, but all the money goes to patent meds.
“Makes Sense to Me” by SRW in the Fort Bend Journal
“I stopped believing in Santa Claus when my mother took me to see him in the department store, and he asked for my autograph.” – Shirley Temple.
On the way out the door yesterday, Dad gave me five pounds of Prairie Breeze cheese from the Milton Creamery. I have no idea what to do with this so I cut it in three pieces and put the two big pieces in the freezer for now.
https://www.miltoncreamery.com/our-cheeses
Five pounds ! It is a sharp white cheddar with salt crystals in it. Almost crunchy and it does not set off my milk allergy so I like it a lot. Dad and mom eat it with their breakfast every morning.
“FROMA HARROP: Fauci proved no good deed goes unpunished” by FROMA HARROP
https://www.bakersfield.com/opinion/froma-harrop-fauci-proved-no-good-deed-goes-unpunished/article_ef35a9b4-6f5a-11ed-ac93-6b9896104f07.html
“Goodbye, Dr. Fauci. You did your job while under attack from the worst sort of people.”
“You devoted more than 50 years to public health. As director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, you led us through HIV/AIDS, Ebola, COVID, respiratory syncytial virus and, every year, seasonal flu.”
“You say your “proudest moment” was your work with President George W. Bush on the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. PEPFAR is credited with having saved 20 million lives. Twenty million lives.”
Hmm. She does not mention that Fauci had a hand in creating Covid-19.
Is that 20M lives saved with PEPFAR or from PEPFAR?
@Lynn
Probably not good for you.
Send it all to me.
😉
Cheese, yum.
n
More on the ‘Urban Doom Loop’
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/12/05/more-on-the-urban-doom-loop-n515691
Follow-up to an artcle last week, which posited what engineers would identify as a positive-feedback loop in which the decrease in downtown office workers has created excess vacancies in offices—or will do so at lease renewal—which in turn decreases the need for support businesses, which makes the downtowns less atractive. Rinse and repeat.
As real estate valuations fall the tax base shrinks, putting pressure on city budgets
This will cause panic in the blue shiiteholes . Less available graft. Fewer victims for the urban thugs. They will scream that they need a bigger slice of state revenues.
Tough nuggies.
Cheese, yum.
The cheese LOG is 5 inches by 5 inches on the face and about 18 inches long. It is a LOT of cheese. Very good cheese.
Dad bought two chest freezers and put them in the foyer of his house. Now I know what he bought them for, to store vast quantities of cheese.
Mom says that the house is getting a bit crowded.
Over The Hedge: Smoked Pterodactyl
https://www.gocomics.com/overthehedge/2022/12/03
Somehow, I am thinking that smoked pterodactyl does not taste like chicken. Or turkey. Probably more like hawk or buzzard.
“Texas’s crypto mining boom is starting to look more like a bust”
https://www.chron.com/business/technology/article/texas-crypto-mining-bust-17631973.php
“Energy costs and competition lead some cryptocurrency companies to bankruptcy and default.”
Boom and bust, it is not just the oil patch going through it regularly.
Lynn wrote:
I’m sure you’ve read the old Asimov story about “dino-chicken”, and that “scientists say” that the descendants of dinosaurs have evolved into birds? So it’s ENTIRELY possible that smoked pterodactyl might have a chickenish flavor!
“Bowl of Red (The Shifter Series)” by Sarah A. Hoyt
https://www.amazon.com/Bowl-Red-Shifter-Sarah-Hoyt/dp/1630110337?tag=ttgnet-20/
Book number four of a four book fantasy series. I read the well printed (but the font could have been one point bigger) and well bound POD (print on demand) trade paperback published by Golport Press in 2022. I do not know if there will be any more books in the series but I will purchase and read them if so.
It was time for Ragnarok and all the gods must die. Many millennia ago, several alien species arrived at Earth and took on human forms to blend in, retaining their old forms as dragons, lions, alligators, oxen, otters, panthers, century birds, spider monkeys, rats, etc, etc, etc to be shifted to at their will or need. They are incredibly long lived. Now it is the time for heads of the shifter clans to be weighed and challenged for the leadership.
Tom is a dragon shape shifter and his girlfriend Kyrie is panther shape shifter. Tom is the inheritor to the Great Sky Dragon of the eastern dragon clan and in dragon form weighs many tons (yup, no conservation of mass in this series). Tom and Kyrie are also the owners of The George Diner in Goldport, Colorado and getting married today as Kyrie will be delivering their child soon. But the Ragnarok is upon them for a whirlwind two days.
The author has an incredibly busy and active weblog at:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/
I do not how she has time to write. Warning, she is strongly opinionated, Portuguese born, and a Heinlein apologist.
My rating: 4.5 out of 5 stars
Amazon rating: 4.7 out of 5 stars (52 ratings)
“Home Star” by Sarah A. Hoyt
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2022/12/03/home-star/
“It doesn’t snow in space. There are no chimneys in a scout ship lost in unknown coordinates. And John was fresh out of socks, and he was all out of the energy to wash one and hang it on the non-existent chimney.”
A free Christmas short story.
>> The Annals of Internal Medicine just published a randomized controlled trial comparing the ability of medical masks to prevent COVID infection to fit-tested N95s. Importantly, this trial was conducted on healthcare workers who would be most likely to use masks appropriately.
“Annals”…one “n” too many there??
>> Probably not good for you.
Send it all to me.
That’s what I told my wife yesterday when she brought home the cinnamon rolls.
“Supreme Court Justice Alito jokes about Black Santa and Ashley Madison during arguments in same-sex weddings case”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-alito-jokes-black-santa-ashley-madison-supreme-court-arguments-rcna60168
“The justices heard arguments in the case of a web designer who is seeking to avoid working on same-sex weddings because she is a conservative evangelical Christian.”
Why is it always Colorado in these hearings ? Is Colorado a bunch of Karens ?
@brad – I’m late with my advent challenge today.
We are under serious pressure at work.
I guess she never got the “cop handbook” if she didn’t know how to “handle” this situation. Worst case, take the citation, show up for traffic court and ‘golly gee sarge, surprise, surprise,’ the deputy that wrote him up is nowhere to be found…case dismissed.
https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/tampa-police-chief-mary-oconnor-resigns/?ipid=promo-link-block3
Shouldn’t be necessary to freeze it, especially as it is already a sharp cheese. I get medium cheddar in two pound blocks, vac sealed packaging, when it’s on sale and keep it in the refrigerator for up to three years without issue. It is sharp by then, and I do recommend rotating the package from time to time. It may weep a bit and or exhibit salt crystals on the surface at that point.
“The value of owning more books than you can read”
https://bigthink.com/neuropsych/do-i-own-too-many-books/
“Or, how I learned to stop worrying and love my tsundoku.”
“Many readers buy books with every intention of reading them only to let them linger on the shelf. Statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb believes surrounding ourselves with unread books enriches our lives as they remind us of all we don’t know. The Japanese call this practice tsundoku, and it may provide lasting benefits.”
I call it my SBR (strategic book reserve) but some people call it “unpronounceable”.
“Died Suddenly”
https://diedsuddenly.info/
“Healthy adults are dropping dead all across the globe. In the last 18 months, the term “Died Suddenly” has risen to the very top of “most searched” Google terms. Now, the award-winning documentary team that brought you, “Watch The Water”, and “These Little Ones” travels around the world to find answers, and tell the stories, of those who Died Suddenly.”
Not good if true.
The revelation that the Chief had a home in Pinellas County was probably more embarrassing for TPD.
Also, the election for Mayor is in March IIRC.
When my dad was a sheriff in San Bernardino County he pulled that stunt more than once. One time he was pulled by the CHP for doing over 90 in a 60. Flashed his badge and went on his way. I suspect the local LEOs have done the same thing more than once. Professional courtesy it is called. I call it illegal.
“Kirstie Alley, ‘Cheers’ and ‘Look Who’s Talking’ Star, Dies at 71”
https://variety.com/2022/tv/obituaries-people-news/kirstie-alley-dead-cheers-look-whos-talking-1235451006/
Hat tip to:
https://www.drudgereport.com/
No mention of “A Bunny’s Tale”.
They did cover “Summer School”.
Moffit Cancer Center is on the grounds of my undergrad alma matter. Alley spent a lot of time in Downtown Clearwater.
Made it home uneventfully. There was almost an event, but the torn off bumper was just far enough out of the lane that I missed it…
Put the master bath together. Insulated the wall, put the paneling back up. Didn’t put the window trim back, or the cove molding or corner moldings. That can wait. Got the vanity and counter top installed. Hooked up the faucets, waterlines, and drain… except for the one critical part, an extension to the drain. So no actual working sink, but it’s only 10 minutes and $4 from done.
That is, until we decide on a floor covering, then it all comes out again.
Did do some cleanup. Not enough, but hey, bathroom vanity and working kitchen sink! Should take about half an hour to install the dishwasher next trip and half of that is putting in the new power outlet. An hour if I put a switch on it like it is supposed to be…
It finally cleared up in the late afternoon and the sunset was gorgeous.
n
Former prog media darling sentenced to another 14 years in prison
https://legalinsurrection.com/2022/12/judge-sentences-michael-avenatti-to-14-years-in-prison-for-embezzlement-and-fraud/
Currently serving five years, Mikey is reputedly concerned that he may need a new wig and more lipstick for his second gig.
https://victorhanson.com/if-you-really-wanted-to-destroy-the-united-states-then/
VDH has a good list, but omitted the foundation. Call it:
Condition Zero
Manipulate the presidential election to select a demented puppet totally lacking in intellect and morals with a lifetime of selfishness, greed, avarice, lies, mendacity and deviancy to prepare him as the willing presenter of the any vile action thrown up on his teleprompter.
Multiculturalism Will Be The Death Of Every Great Society
https://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=402130
>> The revelation that the Chief had a home in Pinellas County was probably more embarrassing for TPD.
Every large (top 25??) city should require all its municipal employees, including police, fire and EMS, to live in the city they “serve.” Get caught cheating is grounds for immediate dismissal and forfeiture of all retirement funds.
>> Did do some cleanup. Not enough, but hey, bathroom vanity and working kitchen sink! Should take about half an hour to install the dishwasher next trip and half of that is putting in the new power outlet. An hour if I put a switch on it like it is supposed to be…
Dishwasher power requires a switch?? Don’t see the logic there…
Don’t see the logic there…
–it’s a motor that can start automatically, they need a ‘disconnecting means’ within sight of the motor… at least that’s what I think the logic of the code is.
Even though they are almost always served by a plug in cordset, the outlets are almost always switched. Usually the switch for a disposal and the switch for the dishwasher are co-located right above the countertop, next to the sink (where the washer is). I could see a need to shut it off if it starts spewing water everywhere and opening the door doesn’t do the trick.
The power for the dishwasher comes from an outlet above the counter, easy enough to swap in a 2 gang box, and add a switch in the line to the under counter outlet. Just takes time.
n
From the CDC
–any old BS to stay in the news.
n
My understanding is that a plug provides an acceptable means of disconnection, and a switch is only required if the dishwasher is hardwired or plugged into a receptacle that is not accessible (e.g., behind the unit).
>> Don’t see the logic there…
–it’s a motor that can start automatically, they need a ‘disconnecting means’ within sight of the motor… at least that’s what I think the logic of the code is.
Even though they are almost always served by a plug in cordset, the outlets are almost always switched. Usually the switch for a disposal and the switch for the dishwasher are co-located right above the countertop, next to the sink (where the washer is). I could see a need to shut it off if it starts spewing water everywhere and opening the door doesn’t do the trick.
The power for the dishwasher comes from an outlet above the counter, easy enough to swap in a 2 gang box, and add a switch in the line to the under counter outlet. Just takes time.
Okay, makes sense…don’t currently have a switch and if I even considered putting it on the to-do list it would never bubble up high enough to get done.
So then the same I guess applies to your washer and dryer?
Which is an opportunity for a minor prep – make sure your circuit breaker panel is fully and accurately labeled (still want to type it as “labelled.)
make sure your circuit breaker panel is fully and accurately labeled
– that will help in all kinds of ways including when you add the panel and switch for the generator… everyone here has a plan for when the power goes out, right??
n