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Month: March 2020

Sat. Mar. 21, 2020 – sleeping in, probably, like a slacker

Cooler and wet. 56F when I went to bed. [55F at 9 am]

Very tired last night. Stayed up too late.

Dinner of pork shoulder in the crock pot with hawaiian sauce, rice and pineapple went pretty well. Wife and one kid liked it. I liked it. The other kid loved the rice. Can’t win some days. The brownie mix came out great and the 8yo was very proud of helping.

Didn’t get as much organized as I was hoping to due to rain. I did get a chance to pull the tarps to the side and dig out a couple of boxes of Mountain House to send mom. Under that bin was another complete loss. Black bin full of moldy damp cardboard and pasta. See my previous comments about the unsuitability of the black bins for long term storage in varying heat and humidity. I’m taking that bin to the end of the driveway and dumping the contents into a black trash bag. Then I’m leaving it in the rain for a while. I don’t want to mess with it at all, but I will clean it eventually. Never gonna store food in it again though.

We’ll see if I can get the gennies going today. That is next on the list to be worked while other things pull me different directions.

If the rain stops or holds off, I’ll get more done than not.

Keep stacking, or pull up the drawbridge and stay safe.

nick

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Fri. Mar. 20, 2020 – more to do, time to do it

Warm and windy, [77F and 82%RH]

Yesterday got up to “pretty dang hot” in the sun. I was moving in and out all day. I did get space cleared, shelves installed, and some food organized.

Today I’m going to continue that project and push forward on a couple others.

I might make my Lowe’s run, or not. Sunday morning might be better.

I’ve got the generators to get running too. And I might start that today too.

We are supposed to get rain at some point. That will shift all the stuff around.

I did some updating in comments last night, take a look.

Work to do, and so do you…

nick

Read the comments: 92 Comments

Thur. Mar. 19, 2020 – Prepping for the zombie apocalypse was a lot more fun than living in it.

Warmer and damp.

Didn’t get much done yesterday. Did get some done. Spent too much time arguing with idiots online. Won’t be doing that today.

I have to get stuff squared away if there isn’t rain. We’ve been on the edge of rain for days, it will come, and that will really limit my outdoor work for a couple of days.

Daughter 1 is very concerned about the generators. I need to get that sorted.

I’ve held off on my ‘last run’ to Lowe’s/home depot but I think I’ve got a list finally. I’m getting a couple of things to increase our security posture here. I’m starting to get worried about that. And I need more soil to get the rest of our garden in.

I’m also wondering where I can get more food. I’m sure most people are wondering that. We’re in good shape for what I expected. Not for a year. Not for longer. All I can hope is that you do get immunity, that the 80% who come through can keep the economy moving. Epidemics are supposed to burn themselves out in 8-10 weeks. 3-6 months should have been enough, but it feels really short.

I’ll be honest, there are moments when I think it CAN’T be this bad. Then I see another graph and know better. Having the school district, that will put FELONS back in class to get that sweet sweet tax money, tacitly admit to being out for the long haul, hit home.

There are a number of things that can help. If you get immunity, and it is mild for most people, then it’s possible we’ve been seeing cases for months, but didn’t recognize them for what they were. Those people are going to come through wondering what the fuss was. “I never got sick.” We could have a large pool of immune people and be fine in general and as a country. We’re not seeing that until we get an antibody test though.

We could slow it down so that the sickest have a chance to recover, for whatever the long term prognosis is. In that case we’re in it for months, but I can’t see years.

One of the treatments or vaccines could be both efficacious and safe, and that will help tremendously.

IF you don’t get lasting immunity, this thing will tear through again and again. Or if it mutates in a bad or good way, things could change.

But I do know that the effects on people, our system of government, our economy, are already being felt and will reverberate for a long time, no matter the final resolution.

It is not, despite my title, the zombie apocalypse. It’s not a world killer, in its current form, if you get immunity. Rest assured though, it will bring out the human zombies eventually. There will be a very bad patch, and things will get out of control. Yes, even here. Now just imagine the favelas, or Africa, or India. Or Manila. That’s gonna suck.

I’ve got work to do today,

and so do you.

nick

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Wed. Mar. 18, 2020 – plugging away

Warmer and damp. We’re on the edge of a system according to the big picture FEMA guys, so we’ll either get rain or we won’t.

Didn’t get rain yesterday. Nice day. Got hot in the afternoon and sunny.

I did get some of the area under the patio roof cleaned up. I’ll finish that today and move shelves and food there. Then I’ll tackle more of the garage and driveway.

I sold 10 boxes of stuff yesterday, and one TV remote. Busy day, without making much money. Wife worked from home. Kids bugged us both.

I had a pickup order in with the USPS to get 6 boxes when my regular mail arrived. Carrier did not get out of the truck. On his way out of the cul de sac I stopped him and asked if he or someone else would be picking up my boxes. He was supposed to and he “forgot”. I chatted with him, and he sees any knock on from CV as an opportunity. He’s convinced the chinese built and released the bug. I asked him about masks and gloves (he was wearing gloves) and he repeated what the counter clerks said, he has to buy his own gloves. I got him a box and reminded him I sometimes call for pickup. Today I expect he will do the pickup without ‘forgetting’. That’s just another step on the decline, bribing people to do what they are supposed to do anyway. Hey, maybe I’ll give him a box of masks too.

It’s very weird sitting here all day with everyone home and most of my urgency past. Feels like a very rare weekend with no commitments. Yet, I know I need to be doing things while we can. The invisible menace is invisible. All of my instincts are screaming at me to keep getting ready for “it”. But with this threat, every contact is potentially devastating. People in the neighborhood are walking with their babies and other moms. People are breaking isolation all around me. It feels weird and wrong to just sit here isolated. I should be out shopping. I should be out working. I should be doing SOMETHING… but if I do, the clock restarts every time.

So we wait for an antibody test, and that will take the uncertainty away.

Until then, Market-ticker.org has a bunch of math and insists that we’re doing it wrong. I only skimmed but found a couple of places where he’s either wrong or ignoring uncertainty. We should know definitively in a week or so, and the consequences for not acting were huge.

Keep to yourselves! Stay away from crowds (and everyone else). Keep stacking while you can, if you can.

nick

Read the comments: 92 Comments

Tues. Mar. 17, 2020 – I’m trying to take my own advice

Wet, and a bit cooler.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day. DON’T kiss a stranger.

Got light misty drizzle a couple of times in the afternoon, and then again in the evening, but hadn’t gotten any real rain before I went to bed.

Traffic was light in the afternoon, but still slowed down in the usual places. Commuter traffic patterns were VERY light though.

The world continues to sicken, with south and central America, and africa all growing cases. Despite that, I keep finding reasons why I HAVE to go out. I’m taking precautions. I’m wearing gloves, avoiding touching stuff and people, even wearing shoe covers in high traffic areas. I hope it’s enough.

I’m also whacked out on Tamiflu, and Flagyl and Cipro for my other issue, the one that drove the Dr visit in the first place. I am seeing improvement there so that’s a plus. High power antibiotics will make me a bit goofy and a bit lightheaded. I’m drinking Airborne (yes some people believe it’s worthless, I disagree) and taking my normal everyday stuff too, allergy and anti-inflammatory drugs.

I don’t trust myself to evaluate how I’m actually feeling with all that on board, but I do feel pretty good. No coughing. The kids are both feeling better too. Tree pollen and leaf mold are contributing to my lack of perfect wellness on top of all the rest though as I clean and move stuff in the driveway.

I’ve decided where to put the shelves for all the piled up food- under the roof on the back patio. It’s coolest, dark-ish, and close to the door. Way better than under a tarp in the driveway in the sun. That’s in addition to the food and supplies in the garage. As a testament to my wife coming around, she nodded along while I described what I wanted to do. That’s a huge improvement from a week ago. SteveF, I feel for you. It’s been a great burden removed from me when my wife committed to this course of action.

Throughout all of this, part of me can’t help but acknowledge that civil liberties are being ignored, draconian and tyrannical measures are being put into place, and all without any reference to supporting law and authority. I am nervous about it all, but I believe the math. The math says the only way to save lives it to do this, and even harder and faster than currently. We are unlikely to be the same as people or nation when we get through to the other side. In the words of Yoda, “Save you what can…”

nick

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Mon. Mar. 16, 2020 – plague continues to grow, avoid people

Warm and wet.

Yesterday turned into a fine day in the late afternoon. OC and grey for most of the day, the breeze finally cleared the air for a little while.

I got a whole pallet of scrap loaded and delivered to my secondary location, where I stacked it on a pallet behind the dumpster and wrote “Free” on it. If it’s still there when this burns out, I’ll take it to the scrapyard myself. At the moment, my time is worth way more than scrap value to break it down, and more than being close to the guys at the yard for only a few bucks in ‘breakage’ if I don’t separate it. This is another case of “should have done it long ago, before China tanked.”

Getting rid of that pallet opened up a nice spot for a metal shelf unit to hold food and supplies. Going to the secondary also let me pick up two black tubs of food. I’m concerned about bringing everything home, but I’m also concerned about theft while it’s there, and not being able to access it if things continue to get restricted. Right now, I’m leaning toward bringing most of it home.

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Trump and the others trying to manage this crisis are handicapped by their privilege. Yes, I’m using the SJW word, and in mostly the same way they do. US leaders are trying to calm the public down, which is a knee jerk reaction. People get excited, you try to calm them down. In this case, I think it’s entirely appropriate to buy enough food and supplies to stay the flock indoors and avoid people for a couple of months. Others disagree. Trump and TPTB have privilege that they don’t see– they won’t be going out next week to shop. They won’t be taking their lives and the lives of their loved ones into their hands and exposing themselves to a hundred potential infecteds, or touching the same surfaces 100s of dirty sick people have also touched.

I don’t care if the stores have food in a week. Or two weeks. Or if they’ll stay open somehow. I won’t be going there, and neither will Trump, Fauci, or any of the other stiffs on TV.

I won’t be going because I don’t want to get sick. I UNDERSTAND WHAT QUARANTINE MEANS. Clearly they don’t. It certainly doesn’t mean, after a week home with your sick kids, and a day after YOU start coughing, head to the Kroger for some lunchmeat and ramen. The folks at Kroger don’t want your virus shedding butt in there either.

I won’t be going out into ‘the community’ because that’s where ‘community transmission’ happens. FFS people lockdown means LOCKED DOWN. No way the queues will maintain enough separation between people. No way they’ll be wiping down surfaces and waiting 10 minutes for the virus to die before the next person touches it. YES, 10 minutes of wet time. For almost all the disinfectants.

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My wife and others have said the same things, this feels weird, wrong somehow. I figure it’s because we are experienced and prepared. We’ve had PRACTICE and we have routines even — but for hurricanes, storms, earthquakes, etc NOT pandemic. We’re trained to head out for one last thing before the storm gets here. We’re used to working through a list and getting a few more things done before the storm. We’re used to checking on neighbors, making sure they have what they need and are getting ready. We’re used to cracking a bottle and grilling the freezer meat when the power is out, or sharing a meal with neighbors while the aftershocks shake. We know that there is backup out there and eventually help will arrive. We pride ourselves on not needing help, but providing it.

All that experience is WRONG for this disaster. You need to stop going to the store. Stop touching all the things. No get togethers. No casual contact. No more ‘one last thing’ if it involves people. My neighbor was out in the yard so I asked him what their plans were. He said “I’m going to hockey practice.” No, I meant for the next few weeks. “OH, I’ve been to the store 3 times, we’re good to stay home.” Then he jumped in the truck and went to join a group of people potential infecteds and play hockey. He’ll need a store to be open next week, and he’ll be walking right into what will feel like an overnight increase in infection.

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Take precautions and finish up! Recognize that this IS different than all the other disasters, and don’t get caught out because of your own habits and expectations.

If you aren’t done yet, keep stacking, but do it by remote control. Don’t go out and play in it.

nick

Read the comments: 68 Comments

Sun. Mar. 15, 2020 – 3 months, not 3 weeks

Warm and wet.

Light rain started last night, after a damp and overcast day. Some moments of clear sky and nice breeze, but generally threatening all day.

My AC is working again. It took several pounds of R22 to bring the system pressure back up. I’m hoping it holds for the season.

If you haven’t been reading comments, I encourage you to do so as that’s where the good stuff is. I think of the day’s post as a topic sentence for the day, but it often ends up something completely different. It’s always interesting and civil.

Also, please check out Aesop at https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/ He’s on the front line of this in CA. I’m active in the comments over there too (if you’re interested).

After consideration, and some thought, PLEASE STOP GOING TO STORES. The curiosity factor will get you killed or sickened. All over the web I’m seeing people check in and admit they didn’t really need anything but were just curious. I admit I did it too, last week. But now, the freaking stores are full of people from the community. That’s where “community transmission” comes from! Read the Italian ICU report I linked late last night. The ONLY thing that will help when the ICU inundation starts is slowing the rate of contagion. The only thing that slows the spread is isolation.

Don’t even think about ‘get it now, while there are still beds’. Between the time to show symptoms and the normal time until it gets bad, you won’t beat the rush. Everyone with it NOW will beat you there.

I commented last night why you need at least 3 months of supplies, please take a moment and consider my timeline. If it doesn’t make sense, let me know. No need to tell me it’s overreaction, but do please keep sharing your honest thoughts. We all need to avoid any mania (beyond what some of you already believe we’re infected with, and if we are, we need to slow the spiral. If you change your mind, I’m not going to judge, I’m going to celebrate.) Getting your stock up to the three month level is about the only reason I can think of to risk going into a store at this point.

I’m also sure we are about to get some internal domestic travel restrictions. It’s already been mentioned in at least two official places. The Governor of Florida is calling for it. They will ground most of the planes at some point, the math insists on it. I expect one or both of my siblings to be stuck in FL but at least my mom will have company. No resources, but company. I don’t want to consider what that means for my family long term. No matter what YOUR belief about the validity and necessity of the measures is, this now has a life of its own, and shutting down air travel is the next step. They will likely wait until they have something they can point to for such a drastic seeming decision, so watch for that. It may be a ‘magic number’ of infected, dead, or occupied ICU beds, or it might be something external to the USA. There won’t be much if any warning, we’ve already BEEN warned. One, maybe two weeks minimum would be my guess, but it’s coming.

This sort of disaster is about the worst kind. It’s everywhere. There won’t be help coming in from outside the region, like most natural disasters. What help might be available because it won’t happen everywhere at the same time, will be held in reserve for what the outsiders know is coming to them. You are on your own. No one is coming to save you. The ONLY thing that will help is if you get immunity after having the virus. If that happens, the people with mild cases will be able to keep everything going and we’ll only lose those with acute symptoms. If you don’t get lasting immunity, or worse, get it bad the second time, better start praying for effective drugs. And soon.

With that in mind, start praying for an antibody blood test, so we can confirm who’s had it and is possibly immune. There are an increasing number of people sharing stories of having been sick in the last month, but not having the flu. Heck, I have been coughing for the last month. I don’t think I got the flu, as I never had any real fever, but I felt pretty bad for a while. It’s important to remember that there might already be, and certainly will be, a large pool of people recovered from the mild symptoms. As long as they have immunity we’ll get through this. Until we can identify them though, we need to keep everyone isolated. (and there was an article about the virus being present in lungs for 30 something days after recovery, that would be bad news if true.)

So, if you aren’t stocked up, get there. Stop going out. Time to pull it all in and hope for the best.

nick

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Sat. Mar. 14, 2020 – slightly sicker, still moving

Hotter and damp.

It got up into the 80s yesterday and was humid too.

AC guy coming this am to see what we can do about the frozen coils. We’ve known for a while that the system needed to be replaced. And now we might just be F’d…

I don’t want any strangers in the house. Certainly not a guy or guys that have been in other people’s houses. If we can just add freon outdoors, I’m going for that. No way do I want a rip and replace in the middle of an isolation. Dammit this is the second thing to bite me in the last couple of weeks. On the other hand, I don’t want a failure NEXT week either. Next week is a whole lot riskier.

More money going out too. Good thing I married well.

I’m going to see if this guy (from the neighborhood and recommended) can hook up the gennie too. Better one guy than 6.

Once again the moral of the story is fix things when you see that they need fixing.

Went to bed with the beginnings of a sore throat. I’m going to increase the Tamiflu to the twice daily “you’re sick” dose per my Dr. On top of the other stuff the Dr has me on for the issue I wanted fixed, I’m feeling a bit off.

Kids seem to be feeling better.

More updates throughout the day.

Start sorting your stack, work on your environment, think about your garden, polish your ammo… start working on physical security. Stay home!

nick

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Fri. Mar. 13, 2020 – Friday the Thirteenth falls on a Friday this month….

Warm and damp.

Yesterday was too. Sunny and hot even. None of the threatened rain showed. Which is good. I can water the garden. I’d prefer a bit less rain so I can work outside. I’ve got a ton of stuff to reorganize and put away.

I think we’re in for the duration. Gasoline, potting soil, and some lumber are about all that is left on my list. Hitting up my secondary for more stuff might happen, but I’ll try mightily to avoid any interaction with people. I don’t think they’ll impose local lockdown or curfew for another week at least.

Speaking of which… This is not a vacation. The whole purpose of these economy destroying measures is to stop or slow the spread of the virus. It won’t do that if people keep getting together. This is the time to bunker up. Shelter in place. Hunker down. However you say it, pick a spot and go to ground.

Those soon to be 20000 cases in Italy are just ordinary folks. Community transmission is just plain folks, going about their business and then getting sick. Some desperately sick. You are ordinary folks. STOP GOING ABOUT YOUR BUSINESS. Stop exposing yourself to other people. (He says, but see below.)

It will be very hard. I’ve already listed the things I’d still like to pick up, and didn’t mention the AC coil froze over again. Wife is not excited to have that keep happening while we’re locked down for weeks. So she wants to rip and replace it NOW. FFS. I’m trying to keep that from happening. SHOULD have addressed it immediately after the last problem. SHOULD HAVE. Didn’t. I would like to get the big gennie turned on and connected. STILL haven’t done that. I think maybe one more day or two max with any outside contact, and anything after that is foolhardy. It’s already later than I’d like.

Speaking of too late, I’m pretty sure both of my local auctions will be a bust. Too bad, but timing is everything. We didn’t get the week I was hoping for.

FWIW, kids are feeling better, and we’ve all started the Tamiflu. Daughter doesn’t like the taste and doesn’t want to continue. Too bad. We really don’t want to be sick or weakened now.

I hope you have all completed your preparations. We’re all about to be tested. I’m hoping we all pass… (the test, not “on”).

nick

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Thur. Mar. 12, 2020 – for some people, sh!t just got real…

Warm and damp.

Yesterday stayed overcast most of the day but then did have a bit of sunshine later.

I spent the am getting blood drawn and ‘wasting time on the internet with my friends’ and the pm running errands. I dropped off some respirators for an auction, went by my rent house and blocked up some holes where the possum was getting in, and went by my secondary location and brought some TP home. Also hid the paper products still there, and covered up some of the food and materiel as well. I don’t want it all here right now. It’s far enough away that if there were severe travel restrictions locally, I might be blocked from getting to it. That’s balanced by its purpose as a backup and offsite storage. Always tradeoffs.

Between the Houston Rodeo cancellation, Trump’s travel restrictions, and the WHO finally declaring the pandemic, some people got a very rude shock today. Add in the later celebrity and sports stars that declared they have WuFlu, and you’ve got a very upset and angry populace.

I’m thinking 5 stages of Grief for some of them.

Some of us think it’s too little too late.

Today I’m taking the kids to get swabbed for ordinary flu, just in case. I don’t usually take them to the Dr, but it’s early enough that the Tamiflu might work. School sent the oldest home with a fever, the youngest came home too. The fever is worrying. Without it, no wuflu. With it, and the cough, and the other symptoms, there’s a possibility. Neither had fever when I sent them yesterday morning. So I’ve got them at home today. I’ve got lots of groceries to put away and stuff to do. I’m going to hunker down if I can. With the kids still in school, there wasn’t a benefit to me isolating, now there is. I’ll try to keep them home Friday too, and then for Spring Break. I just hope I didn’t pick it up somewhere.

Keep stacking. Start your isolation if you think it’s time. I think it’s past time, but we finally hit my trigger- confirmed person to person in town.

nick

(oh and for anyone crying about the Rodeo, the stupid F’ers were using VINEGAR to disinfect because they were told it does a better job on BACTERIA than bleach. I almost don’t believe it, but then the whole place is staffed with third worlders with no germ theory experience. So much fail in one place.)

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