Wet, and a bit cooler.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day. DON’T kiss a stranger.
Got light misty drizzle a couple of times in the afternoon, and then again in the evening, but hadn’t gotten any real rain before I went to bed.
Traffic was light in the afternoon, but still slowed down in the usual places. Commuter traffic patterns were VERY light though.
The world continues to sicken, with south and central America, and africa all growing cases. Despite that, I keep finding reasons why I HAVE to go out. I’m taking precautions. I’m wearing gloves, avoiding touching stuff and people, even wearing shoe covers in high traffic areas. I hope it’s enough.
I’m also whacked out on Tamiflu, and Flagyl and Cipro for my other issue, the one that drove the Dr visit in the first place. I am seeing improvement there so that’s a plus. High power antibiotics will make me a bit goofy and a bit lightheaded. I’m drinking Airborne (yes some people believe it’s worthless, I disagree) and taking my normal everyday stuff too, allergy and anti-inflammatory drugs.
I don’t trust myself to evaluate how I’m actually feeling with all that on board, but I do feel pretty good. No coughing. The kids are both feeling better too. Tree pollen and leaf mold are contributing to my lack of perfect wellness on top of all the rest though as I clean and move stuff in the driveway.
I’ve decided where to put the shelves for all the piled up food- under the roof on the back patio. It’s coolest, dark-ish, and close to the door. Way better than under a tarp in the driveway in the sun. That’s in addition to the food and supplies in the garage. As a testament to my wife coming around, she nodded along while I described what I wanted to do. That’s a huge improvement from a week ago. SteveF, I feel for you. It’s been a great burden removed from me when my wife committed to this course of action.
Throughout all of this, part of me can’t help but acknowledge that civil liberties are being ignored, draconian and tyrannical measures are being put into place, and all without any reference to supporting law and authority. I am nervous about it all, but I believe the math. The math says the only way to save lives it to do this, and even harder and faster than currently. We are unlikely to be the same as people or nation when we get through to the other side. In the words of Yoda, “Save you what can…”
nick
I’m drinking Airborne (yes some people believe it’s worthless, I disagree) and taking my normal everyday stuff too, allergy and anti-inflammatory drugs.
The problem with Airborne wasn’t the product but the claims printed on the box along with the “Invented by a teacher” marketing campaign being SJW before SJW was a thing.
“What? You’re saying a teacher is wrong? How dare you!”
Herr Greta!
If it works for you, it works. I have a particular type of Publix multivitamin which works best for me and we buy a couple of bottles when we are near one of their stores. TSA even stole my bottles one year!
That reminds me — Where is Dr. Dean Edell these days? We could use the sanity.
Today is the big real-life test for the schools and their grab-and-go meals. I envision chaos.
And guess where the YMCA and Boys & Girls Club are setting up their daycare?
The schools.
Preparing for wandering hoards of juveniles.
This is not going to end well.
My son is hauling home his CAD/Engineering Workstation today. Setup will be a circus. His IT Department (located in Sweden and Nashville TN and it is out of commission due to tornado) has no idea if they will be able to get peoples’ systems to work at home. Yesterday’s test with one person failed.
My daughter’s IT Department was not able to figure out how to connect everyone, or anyone, remotely. The circle-jerk will continue today. Meanwhile, medical bills are not being processed.
Hunkered down, locked and loaded.
My daughter’s IT Department was not able to figure out how to connect everyone, or anyone, remotely. The circle-jerk will continue today. Meanwhile, medical bills are not being processed.
The same Providence as based in Portland? Not happening. Too much penny pinching. My wife had an interview process with one of their clinical groups, and the employment agreement was nothing short of a trap which would have left us with a choice when the time came to bail — remain enslaved or file Bankruptcy.
(Crazy to think that the best healthcare capacity estimates still fall far short yet are based on a lot of underpaid people being “professional”.)
Plus, VPN is another area of tech which has reached an evolutionary dead end. Big companies in the US didn’t care because they were trying to break the Work From Home Mafia. The dirty secret of “work from home”, which we knew in my group at The Death Star a decade ago, is that not a lot of actual work gets done once the Mafia members are “made men/women”. No one really cared if Citrix or Cisco AnyConnect actually worked.
Crossing my fingers my fridge arrives tomorrow. It would be nice to store some meats and cheeses, etc., instead of sloshing out into the virus pool at HEB. I’m trying to make sure I have at least one month of food on hand at all times. Got a pound of HEB ghetto burger yesterday and made a Velveeta Ultimate Cheesy burger dish. The doxies and I loved it.
Went to the PO and put in a box rekey order.
I got a gallon of “outdoor bleach” at HD. Anyone have experience making a spray with it?
Not much real value producing work gets done in the office, for that matter. How many Diversity Coordinators does big business need to produce widgets? Or other compliance officers? Grant writers?
How much of FedGov will be working from home? How many in the Regulatory State? Green screen character displays, and modem banks can’t be “home-sourced”.
Most of the actual people I know who work from home do very fragmented hours and get most of the real work done when the phones stop ringing and in office colleagues stop bugging them.
The truism is that if you won’t do the work at the office, you’re not going to do the work at home. Offices are FILLED with people not doing work (as observations about the prevalence of pron and online shopping, FB and other timewasters shows.)
The biggest shocker to mgmt will be how few of their ‘workers’ actually contribute to the success of the company.
n
I’m reading articles popping up on how Millennials and, especially, Celbriturds, are comparing lockdown to Armageddon and War. I guess they can’t go out and party so their lives are over.
Is Tom Hanks dead yet?
@MrAtoz, I’ve only used the outdoor bleach outdoors to clean siding and roof, and it came with a special spray bottle dispenser that attached to the garden hose.
I’d look at the Active ingredients. Should be sodium hypochlorite alone for pure chlorine bleach. Anything else will be gelling agents, detergents, fungicides and mildewcides. If any of the other crap is listed, you don’t want to use it for water sterilizing but it should work for stuff like sterilizing shoes and surfaces. Note the “wet” time required for effective killing.
Clorox has great info if you dig thru their site. And take a look at the pdf link I posted for specific brand info.
n
Tom Hanks, Rita Wilson leave quarantine
World breathes a sigh of relief. Distraction at 11…
n
Hey he beat AIDS in that movie right? And survived the island alone and two movie plane crashes, so this bug won’t get him.
@Lynn – If your wife hasn’t seen “First Contact”, see if one of your streaming services has it available. It fills in a lot of context in “Picard” with regard to The Borg. Scary to think that was 24 years ago. The film really holds up well, especially the new scan of the negative for the BluRay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cKJ3HjuUyk
How much of FedGov will be working from home? How many in the Regulatory State? Green screen character displays, and modem banks can’t be “home-sourced”.
AT&T has a service separate from the VPN offerings which is a secure 3270 terminal for Win32 linking to non-IP networked machines over an Internet connection. It actually works quite well despite not having been recompiled since … 2000-ish?
IBM was a huge customer for that service as well as banks and other organizations which were mainframe dependent.
Hey he beat AIDS in that movie right? And survived the island alone and two movie plane crashes, so this bug won’t get him.
Don’t forget the volcano and the bachelor party that killed a mule.
Last Thursday and especially Friday we had chaotic times at work, in large part because we were putting together a couple of reports related to coronavirus. It was a perfectly predictable request from the family doctors and the corporation which owns our company, but apparently no one anticipated it and so there was a lot of drop-everything-do-this-now scurrying. OK, fine. Except the not-fine part was that there was an awful lot of bumbling around and dumb mistakes and not being able to get this part to work with that part and on and on. Late morning on Friday I realized what was happening (I’d been busy dealing with problems of my own) so I took on part after part that others had failed on and got them all working where half a dozen people hadn’t been able to. Success at the end of the day, woo-hoo, and I got a “thanks for the hard work” text late in the afternoon.
The dark side of the tale: the majority of the bumbling and fumbling was by the non-American and non-male contingent of the office. And the non-American and non-male contingent got much larger pay raises than I did at the beginning of the year. Mine, in fact, was less than the official inflation rate and half of the actual inflation rate. We see what “thanks for the hard work” is actually worth.
Yes, I’ve started looking for a new job, or more likely a contract. The timing is not ideal, though.
@Greg Norton asked:
The same Providence as based in Portland?
Yup, that’s the one.
My kids’ have a good work from home ethic (good at work ethic too). They have both done it in the past. They get up at the normal time, eat breakfast, make their lunch, and get dressed as if they were going in for work. They are among the minority.
The economy is coasting to a halt.
Thanks, Mr. Nick. It’s the Chorox brand so I’ll look it up.
My kids’ have a good work from home ethic (good at work ethic too). They have both done it in the past. They get up at the normal time, eat breakfast, make their lunch, and get dressed as if they were going in for work. They are among the minority.
My generation is the one which ruined “work from home” and built the Mafia to protect their interests. The racket will take a long time to unwind, and we probably still have another 10 years before the made men and women start to retire.
Good summary article in the FT about changes to the UK policy. Circumvent the paywall by googling this whole phrase and clicking on the search result. You may need to disable javascript for the site, and try again.
The latest evidence suggests that 30 per cent of patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 will need critical care in an intensive care unit, he said. Previous estimates, based on experience with viral pneumonia, were too low.
Critical care bed demand would be eight times capacity after mitigation measures were applied, and around 30 times capacity in both the US and UK in an “uncontrolled epidemic”.
–if it doesn’t work, I can quote the whole thing.
TL:DR- we figured out that we’d be overwhelmed and changed our minds, too little, too late though.
n
Over in Italy,
https://www.thelocal.it/20200316/italy-latest-coronavirus-deaths-cases
-the curve is slowing slightly, maybe, or it may be reporting artifacts. Note the “more than doubling in two days”.
n
So the county I live in does not have a confirmed case of COVID-19 yet, but I’m sure that will change. The first cases in my state showed up in two adjacent counties, one of which already has travel restrictions in place. The state government is saying it is possible that tens of thousands of people are infected, which would be 1000 people infected for every confirmed case.
So I am hoping that they are wrong, but living my life like they could be right. I’m definitely thinking twice before going out in public, but like Nick, I keep finding that I have to do it occasionally. When I do go out, I take what precautions I can to minimize my exposure.
I’m confident that in a few weeks or months the situation will resolve itself.
we figured out that we’d be overwhelmed and changed our minds, too little, too late though.
The Federal government wasn’t prepared for non-stop images of the stores getting stripped to the bare walls while the delivery infrastructure is still intact.
I also think the expectation was that March Madness would proceed even if the games had to be played in empty arenas with players tested at the doors.
On the other side, among other things, the unexpected development was Andrew Gillum attempting a remake of “Party At Kitty And Studs” in a hotel room in FL this weekend. The papers had to quell the Ron DeSantis conspiracy stories at least for a little while.
Ordinary people are more conservative than the press and a few loud examples would suggest.
Given no economic impact, Mr and Mrs America will stay home rather than take a chance at the arena. For every Bubba yelling “Hell no, I’m not changing my life for some sh!t you can’t even see!111!!11!!1″ There are 10 people quietly NOT making plans to go out, quietly ‘putting a couple extra by, just in case”, and generally being the careful prudent people they have always been.
n
Have you seen the photos of how crowded the beaches in Florida are for Spring Break? It seems nobody has done a good job of convincing the under-25 crowd why they should stay home when they know they have excellent odds of surviving COVID-19 and are either very mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic. So, they’ve taken the “I’m young and invincible!” approach. I doubt the businesses that thrive on beach goers and tourists are complaining much either.
The wife was all on board with stocking up our consumables in Feb when I saw this coming. We spent over $2k at SAMS. Now she only wants to cook with fresh ingredients not that “stuff” she bought for SHTF. I remind her that the S has indeed hit the F but she’s firm on maintaining her culinary standards. So I am planning a grocery visit in protective kit at the last hour before closing to miss any crowds. This may be my last run. Only shortages in our area are TP and hand sanitizer but I’m good on those.
Update: Just checked with the hospital and the wife’s appointment for this afternoon is still on. If it weren’t a critical issue I’d stay away from hospitals, far away. Without this visit she doesn’t get her diabetes medication ordered. Life or death every day.
@chad, I’ve seen some of the photos, and then read about authorities closing those beaches. They are probably too little too late. (I’m going to need an abbreviation for that. TLTL…)
People get stubborn, dig in their heels in denial. And they can’t see what’s coming because there isn’t an issue RIGHT THIS MINUTE. Attention spans, especially in younger people have been shortened dramatically as has ‘time preference’.
I’ve heard that MSM has been pushing “only old people need to worry.” Yet outside of China, we’re seeing more and more sick younger people (not yet 20 somethings in bulk, but FL has several cases among young women.)
We should be poised for massive increases in mild to severe cases outside of clinical care. Once community spread gets established, the clock is ticking.
n
Amazon Suspends All Shipments Other Than Medical Supplies, Household Staples
–jeez, they TOTALLY missed or perhaps INTENTIONALLY MIS-REPORTED that this was amazon limiting INCOMING shipments to its warehouses. NOT outgoing shipments to customers. They may indeed be limiting outgoing but that is not what the referenced blog post describes.
n
A highlight from Paul Thurrott’s Blog:
There is at least one good person still out there.
@harold,
Gloves and masks. Hand sanitizer doesn’t work on virusus per CDC and is second to hand washing. Gloves seem to be more important than masks if no one is actively coughing on you.
Wear shoes you can leave outside or spray with disinfectant when you get home.
Do what you can.
n
–um, does Cuomo really think FEMA can pull 15-30 THOUSAND ICU beds out of thin air? Who’s gonna monitor those ventilators? AND what will the REST of the country do?
I think most of the people in the red parts of this map would throw NYFC on the mercy of the gods they worship….
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/49/2016_Nationwide_US_presidential_county_map_shaded_by_vote_share.svg/1280px-2016_Nationwide_US_presidential_county_map_shaded_by_vote_share.svg.png
n
“There is at least one good person still out there. ”
— I wonder how she’ll feel sitting in her empty basement/garage starving to death while her neighbors party… or if any of them will bring her food when she’s sick.
n
— but then I’m a pessimist.
“There is at least one good person still out there. ”
— I wonder how she’ll feel sitting in her empty basement/garage starving to death while her neighbors party… or if any of them will bring her food when she’s sick.
I’ve noted here before the death threats I received over *sod* from the neighbors in FL, many of whom were ex-military. And that was behavior based on the crack smoking fantasy that their houses were going to make them millionaires, not starvation.
I’m glad I’m not around those people in this situation. Their houses never did make them millionaires.
Wear shoes you can leave outside or spray with disinfectant when you get home
Protocol for parvovirus when I worked at a vets office in the 1980’s was a boot tray with a towel, filled with watered down bleach. I don’t recall the concentration. Step into the tray and stand for a bit, upon entry and exit. My recollection is it was very effective at stopping cross contamination.
–um, does Cuomo really think FEMA can pull 15-30 THOUSAND ICU beds out of thin air? Who’s gonna monitor those ventilators? AND what will the REST of the country do?
I suspect Cuomo is grandstanding to be in the calculus for a Presidential nomination at the (now) inevitable brokered convention. Cuomo and Gavin Newsom as VP with Bloomberg financing the whole shebang, declaring that, collectively, they can’t ignore the leadership vacuum, and Plugs would just be more of the same.
I have 6 packages sitting on the porch waiting for pickup. Last night I had 2. UPS lost out on a package because they want $25 to come by and pickup. Meanwhile their drivers pass or stop here at least 3 times a day for delivery.
USPS will pick up free if you notify one day in advance.
Unfortunately I’m only making $10 – $15 on each package, but that is inching up as I raise prices by a dollar every couple of items sold. When I bought them I expected to make $35 each, but prices fell sharply. Now they are going back up. I’ll run out of boxes in one or two more sales. I’ve ordered more, and don’t really want to go to the post office to get some in the mean time.
n
wife ordered some various and sundry items after seeing amazon restrict incoming shipments. OUTgoing shipments will be next.
@jenny, that is a good idea, and what I was thinking of for ebola using bleach.
I am not planning many trips though, so it should be manageable by spraying when needed. It might come to that, or fogging the house front and porch…
————————–
I’m seeing more speculation that the gunk everyone has been sick with for the past couple of months might have been Covid and so a bunch of us are probably immune. I sincerely hope that is so, but without an antibody test, we can’t be sure, and so must act as if we are all at risk.
n
Normalcy: I haven’t done lawn care for 15 years. I just sprayed weeds. Bugs next. I splurged on a eGO electric. Probably should have consulted here, but their environment gets good reviews. Small lawn, so probably could cut, trim, blow on one battery.
Heh, my Mold Armor from Amazon is out for delivery, a day early.
Asking for prayers my fridge get delivered tomorrow. Power stays on. Ice soon and meats, eggs, etc., in the cooler.
W. Eschenbach over at Watts Up With That has linked to and done an analysis of a paper reporting the Diamond Princess cruise ship outcomes, to date.
The ship should be a good ‘worst case’ test, and he comes up with a mortality rate of about 1%.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/
“Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)” on March 17, 2020
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Worldwide Total Confirmed 190,694, an increase of 11,592 from 179,103 yesterday
Worldwide Total Deaths 7,519, an increase of 440 from 7,079 yesterday
USA Total Confirmed 5,702, an increase of 1,564 from 4,138 yesterday
USA Total Deaths 94, an increase of 23 from 71 yesterday
Hat tip to:
http://drudgereport.com/
@ed, Aesop has critiqued the “worst case” aspects and so have others. The missing and critical idea is that sick people were REMOVED from the ship, and put into ICU in Japan (if needed). They were given all the care and support of the first world medical system. The ‘worst case’ has to take into account that once the ICU beds, and then normal hospital beds, become saturated, EVERY additional patient will have a worse outcome than they could, with acute care patients dying instead of being saved.
Also, some of the idea that ‘only old people need worry’ came from there, but the population of a cruise ship doesn’t match the demographics of the country as a whole, so conclusions about demographics don’t translate well.
Wishful thinking if used to reassure people that it’s really not so bad. good info in terms of solid numbers, but hard to draw conclusions that apply to the wider world.
For example, the Philippines are about to explode …
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-philippines-quarantines-island-57-million-people-200316161225532.html
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-philippines-new-covid-19-cases-12548050
And a man on the ground,
http://comeandmakeit.blogspot.com/
n
I’m seeing more speculation that the gunk everyone has been sick with for the past couple of months might have been Covid and so a bunch of us are probably immune. I sincerely hope that is so, but without an antibody test, we can’t be sure, and so must act as if we are all at risk.
Lots of plain ol’ flu was going around this winter, and I thought the Covid didn’t respond to Tamiflu.
When was the infamous Nile cruise adventure? I’m not at work so I can’t ask my co-worker who is partially in the know. And even if I could ask, he’d start spouting anti-Trump spiel like he did the other day.
Were the Nile cruise people running around Houston for a while prior to being diagnosed?
wonder what this will do to the investment scam?
Getting ready for the second wave of infections???
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bloody-tuesday-unprecedented-move-china-expels-all-foreign-journalists-working-nyt-wsj
–what you can’t see isn’t happening…..
n
Not to downplay all the graphing, but you can derive that 1% figure just by going to Worldometer and looking at the current numbers that have been reported on the Diamond Princess: 696 cases, 7 deaths.
However, that still leaves 233 active unresolved cases, with 15 critical. That 1% number could still rise.
Now, I understand that the modeling of the DP is intended to come up with a mortality rate for the general population. But I think it may be a stretch to make that application.
We’ll see, I guess.
One thing that makes me wonder about the thought processes involved is this:
Not sure why the good Dr. thinks the deaths will level at 670, or 3000. But the current numbers show the US will reach 100 deaths sometime today, and deaths are doubling every 3-4 days. Best case, we would reach that 36,000 figure in abpout four to five weeks. Worst case of 3 days would see us there in less than a month.
Throughout all of this, part of me can’t help but acknowledge that civil liberties are being ignored, draconian and tyrannical measures are being put into place, and all without any reference to supporting law and authority. I am nervous about it all, but I believe the math. The math says the only way to save lives it to do this, and even harder and faster than currently. We are unlikely to be the same as people or nation when we get through to the other side. In the words of Yoda, “Save you what can…”
I am extremely concerned about civil liberties in the USA here. The announcement of emergency status by the President and many governors last week triggered a low level of martial law. Remember, Lincoln had half of the newspaper editors jailed during the Civil War and nobody came to their rescue (see the old saying about they jailed the gays, etc, etc).
And the average Joe and Jane in the street will forget about this when we get to the other side. They always do. And none of them will stash extra water, TP, canned food, etc because there will not be any more emergencies.
You cannot change a grasshopper to an ant.
My son is hauling home his CAD/Engineering Workstation today. Setup will be a circus. His IT Department (located in Sweden and Nashville TN and it is out of commission due to tornado) has no idea if they will be able to get peoples’ systems to work at home. Yesterday’s test with one person failed.
My daughter’s IT Department was not able to figure out how to connect everyone, or anyone, remotely. The circle-jerk will continue today. Meanwhile, medical bills are not being processed.
Working from home is specifically a disaster for IT. It takes a 1/2 IT person to support a person at home. There are vacations, coffee breaks, sick time, etc, etc, etc, for the IT person.
If my business is ordered to shut down then I am going to lay everyone off except for me. I am not sure if they can keep me from traveling the four miles to and from my house to my commercial property. Unless, they station Guard troops at intersections. You know, like they do in Iraq.
I have one person working from home half time and it is a continual pain.
Hey he beat AIDS in that movie right? And survived the island alone and two movie plane crashes, so this bug won’t get him.
Two movie plane crashes ? I only remember the plane crash in Cast Away. Oh wait, Sully !
http://www.mtv.com/news/2930095/tom-hanks-bad-travel-experience-twitter-sully-cast-away/
@Lynn – If your wife hasn’t seen “First Contact”, see if one of your streaming services has it available. It fills in a lot of context in “Picard” with regard to The Borg. Scary to think that was 24 years ago. The film really holds up well, especially the new scan of the negative for the BluRay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cKJ3HjuUyk
Oh yes, we had seen everything up to Picard and Discovery.
I stayed up until 3am last night binging the first three episodes of Discovery. Man, they gave the Klingons an extra whack of the ugly stick ! And they can barely talk too. I prefer the Worf style Klingons.
https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/ustv/a25946664/star-trek-discovery-klingons-season-2-fan-criticism/
–um, does Cuomo really think FEMA can pull 15-30 THOUSAND ICU beds out of thin air? Who’s gonna monitor those ventilators? AND what will the REST of the country do?
I suspect Cuomo is grandstanding to be in the calculus for a Presidential nomination at the (now) inevitable brokered convention. Cuomo and Gavin Newsom as VP with Bloomberg financing the whole shebang, declaring that, collectively, they can’t ignore the leadership vacuum, and Plugs would just be more of the same.
Nah, it is going to be Bozo the faux Hispanic. The dumbocrats think that they can flip Texas in the fall election with Bozo.
@william,
there are a lot of people trying to downplay the lethality by comparing some number (usually a whole year’s worth of deaths) to the CURRENT number of dead or sick from corvid. They never do the doubling for a whole year or even a month… because the result is devastating.
I’ve said many times in many places, it’s not today’s number that should concern anyone, it’s the number in a week, month, or year from now. Because nothing is going to stop this thing in its tracks. Consider if there were no new infections from tomorrow on, we’d still see increases for at least 5 days, probably 14 and maybe 25, just from current infections. Call it 6 days and two doublings, and assume that there really are many more infections for every positive test result, and you still get a sh!tshow….
n
I stayed up until 3am last night binging the first three episodes of Discovery. Man, they gave the Klingons an extra whack of the ugly stick ! And they can barely talk too. I prefer the Worf style Klingons.
The Klingons get tweaked for the second season. And I don’t think it is a secret that Michelle Yeoh’s character doesn’t stay dead.
“Discovery” went through 2-3 teams of show runners before the end of production on the first season. It is very much a show by committee for that first year.
So maybe the plusses will end up outweighing the minuses in the long run…
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/here-we-go-idiots-participate-in-new-coronavirus-challenge-and-start-licking-airplane-toilet-seats-videos/
I couldn’t watch the videos. Not strong enough stomach.
n
@Nick. Eschenbach admits his error bars are huge, though he does try to adjust for the difference in age cohorts between the ship and USA general populace.
There are other caveats – what strain of Covid, the outcome of cases still open, etc.
Even 1% is a huge number. He seems a bit too sanguine about it all to me, to be honest, but perspectives differ.
My observation here is that a few weeks ago many people were stating that Chinese data was suspect and we needed to wait for Japan, Korea and the cruise ship outcomes. That’s starting to trickle in.
——
In personal news, my dentist is closed to non emergency work, leaving me without the crown I was supposed to get installed Wednesday on a molar. Sigh. No pain thankfully , but I’ll have to work on not using that side of my jaw.
“You Really Have No Idea”
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/you-really-have-no-idea.html
“4000 is the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. now.
(That we know about. Reality could be 100,000 or more.)”
Yup.
“If that original number doubles seventeen more times, the product is a number larger than the populations of the U.S. (330M), Mexico(137M), and Canada(37M), combined. IOW, it’s virtually everywhere in North America at that point. (No, I’m not particularly concerned about the banana republics between Mexico and South America in this regard. They can lump it.)”
Yup.
“Long before then, we’ll have a great view of how lethal it is, and how many cases are serious. So by somewhere between mid-May and Mid-June, we’ll either have metric f**ktons of people requiring hospitalization, and dead, or not. How much better or worse it is then will be a foolproof look at whether this is a nothingburger, or Spanish Flu. Oh, and if there are really 100,000 cases now, we get there a full month earlier.”
I am hoping for a nothing burger.
BTW, several of our schools are reopening their kitchens and lunchrooms for free breakfasts and free lunches.
Why not ? What could go wrong ?
So maybe the plusses will end up outweighing the minuses in the long run…
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/here-we-go-idiots-participate-in-new-coronavirus-challenge-and-start-licking-airplane-toilet-seats-videos/
I couldn’t watch the videos. Not strong enough stomach.
Something is wrong with these people. There is a hypothesis that when society reaches a certain size, many of the people will suicide themselves rather than having to deal with the complexities of a large society. Looks like the hypothesis has at least a portion of truth.
I am hoping for a nothing burger.
Governors Cuomo, Newsom, and Inslee all have vested interests in the virus not ever being a “nothing burger” or even a “something burger” among limited segments of the population. Before the virus, their respective states were in deep trouble, with major cities fast approaching “unlivable” status and fiscal problems which would have CEOs quickly wearing orange suits in the private sector. Even a serious epidemic would be the end of their respective careers. This has to be TEOTWAWKI.
And the kids get there how? They’re going to run the school buses? Might as well have classes, too.
On the plus side of the current commotion, I’m stocked for groceries.
Something is wrong with these people. There is a hypothesis that when society reaches a certain size, many of the people will suicide themselves rather than having to deal with the complexities of a large society. Looks like the hypothesis has at least a portion of truth.
The toilet seats are probably cleaner than the tray tables in the cabins.
A real challenge would be to lick the laminated aircraft safety information card from the seat back pocket.
I mentioned last week or 2 weeks ago that my vet tech is waiting for her crown to come in from China. Seems they are measured/designed here, then machined in China. Who knew?
n
“Even 1% is a huge number. He seems a bit too sanguine about it all to me, to be honest, but perspectives differ. ”
-yeah, early on I was not at all comforted that this would mostly affect my mom, In Laws, pretty much everyone from my ham group and my non-prepping hobby group, etc. I’m only 54, but I’ve always had older friends, rarely younger.
——————
My sibling has (probably) seen the light, and won’t go to Florida. That leaves my mom there in her retirement community alone, but won’t end with my sib stuck in FL. Also s/he got his/her money out of the market before the collapse and turmoil and managed to get some supplies in the house. Probably not enough supplies, but some is better than none.
n
On the plus side of the current commotion, I’m stocked for groceries.
The local HEB was admitting 10 at a time this morning, enforced by Williamson County Sheriff’s deputies when we drove by the store.
I needed replacement dowels after cracking three putting together a Kallax storage unit we actually bought nearly two months ago but just got around to assembling yesterday. I had hoped to just get in and out of IKEA without interacting with people, but the spare parts bins were stripped clean.
The store was a ghost town. Meatballs and frozen mashed potatoes in the food section were all gone.
Prediction: if the US gooberment gives everybody a $xxxx check, 90% will head for the grocery store and stock up.
I was in the local Wally World last night. Massive empty shelves. Overall stock level maybe 30%. Wasn’t crowded, though (at 8:00pm); no panic.
No dairy (well, one half gallon of Almond Milk – I passed); very low eggs/butter/cheeses/lunchmeat/bacon; hamburger tubes still available; no chicken/other meats; frozen foods at about 20% normal; minimal bread; no flour/rice; a few sugars; canned goods at maybe 20%; vegetables/fruit at 80%; candy at 80%; dry cereal at 60%; paper goods empty; sodas at 70%; cleaning goods at 30%;
I didn’t need much, but picked up a bit of prepared frozen; hamburger tubes, dishwasher detergent. Home supply is OK for the two of us; we don’t go out much in normal times.
But a cash payment will cause more pressure on the grocery stores.
@greg, email me, I’ve probably got some of the dowels in my junk drawer.
———————————————————-
And so, it begins.
n
Not trying to be “flip” about the situation.
I was just paying bills and hemming and hawing how much to trans from savings (where the SS goes) to checking. I logged into my Discover account to see what that soon to be delivered bill is. Ahhh… just over $1000 between HEB and Walmart. Plus another $130 for a couple of months of dog and cat food from Tractor Supply.
Call it “pre-spending”.
Edit: Over half of the HEB and Walmart total was ordered on-line before everyone lost their shirt(-r) buying TP.
Add this quote to the note about just how F’d NYC is…
–if they aren’t planning for exponential growth with a doubling rate of 3 days, they are going to be overwhelmed.
n
@paul, despite my history of piling stuff up, I dumped much more than that in the last few weeks and an order of magnitude more in the previous months.
I’m planning to have 2 adults, 2 kids, one dog, and probably some charity cases for 3-6 MONTHS. It’ll be much tighter than I want after the first 3.
n
That’s the thing. They can’t plan. It’s just too big to absorb. What? Turn Trump Tower or the like into hospitals? Where do the nurses come from and what happens when the nurses get sick? Too big of a cluster….
Normalcy bias and innumeracy, it’s what’s for breakfast…. either that or “Mac Salvo” has been a poser all a long.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/more-national-guard-troops-deployed-geogia-people-whove-tested-positive-covid-19
He’s a guy advocating prepping for all kinds of things, and when the real thing happens, he’s all “calm down, nothing to see here”… Governor can call UP TO 2200 guardsmen, and that process takes time. If you want them later, you need to start getting them. 99 sick people TODAY. 200 on friday. 400 on monday, and 1000 by the end of the week. That’s just math. It’s been holding up all over the place too.
n
From the CDC website, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html :
If soap and water are not readily available, use a hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol. Cover all surfaces of your hands and rub them together until they feel dry.
I’m worried about my inventory. I need to get those shelves up and get some counting done. At least if I have to send Mountain House to my mom in FL I won’t have to send enough for two sibs as well….
n
and the dog only has about 4 1/2 or 5 months of food… I feel like getting more.
@greg, email me, I’ve probably got some of the dowels in my junk drawer.
Got ’em. Thanks, though. IKEA was dead so I figured it was worth the risk of interacting with the customer service people. Even part timers get sick leave and benefits so no one with the virus or even suffering from the oak pollen was going to be at work.
I replaced a couple of cracked vertical dowels with drywall screws, but I couldn’t get away with that on the load-bearing horizontal dowels.
Lesson learned. The 4×4 and 5×5 Kallax are beasts to assemble in limited floor space. Without the structural screws in place at the corners, they start moving with very little push.
@nick, I was already sort of ok for 3 or 4 months. I just filled in some gaps and mostly topped everything off.
I had dumb gaps like flour and oh yeah, yeast! for making bread.
Added some spag sauce for lazy suppers.
Jello for desert.
Auguson potatoes? The kind that looks like the taters in a box of au gratin mix? How long does a can last? I don’t know. I have six cans. I should actually count how many cans of Keystone I have. A couple dozen of beef, at least.
Not going to starve here, not quickly.
“Kevin Durant among four Nets tested positive for coronavirus”
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/four-nets-players-test-positive-for-coronavirus/
“There now are seven known cases of coronavirus in the NBA.”
“The Jazz’s Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, along with the Pistons’ Christian Wood, have also tested positive for coronavirus.”
You know, this supports the theory that 90% of the people who have KungFlu do not have a clue that they have it. They would not have tested him if he was a normal Joe, not a $20 million/year investment.
Hat tip to:
http://drudgereport.com/
BTW, we are putting the old house on the market this weekend. No open houses since more than 10 people could show up.
Lesson learned. The 4×4 and 5×5 Kallax are beasts to assemble in limited floor space. Without the structural screws in place at the corners, they start moving with very little push.
You installed this ?
https://www.ikea.com/us/en/p/kallax-shelf-unit-white-80275887/
I like these shelves. I have got two back to back in the garage. I need four XXXX six more.
https://www.samsclub.com/p/members-mark-4-shelf-industrial-storage-rack/prod22160218
Every crown I have was milled in the dentist office except one (Vegas). The new super hard crown and bridge was 3D printed in a Vegas lab. Somehow I got cavity growth under those two.
We’ve got one vertical on each side of the tv stand, and one horizontal in the #2 daughter’s room.
They look quite smart in the dark brown wood/blackish color, and quite sporty in the light wood color for the kid’s room. Easy to restyle with doors or baskets in any color too.
The ones around the tv make the whole thing look like a built in.
n
Son has been told to stay home and work from home until further notice. By order of the CEO no one is allowed in the office unless specific permission from the CEO. Not a big deal for my son who works from home two days when things are normal.
Currently in Pigeon Forge with the RV. RV park would not refund our money so we went. We are far enough from the next RV that it should not be a be a problem. Big air gap. What is noticeable is that Pigeon Forge is emptier than I have ever seen. And I have been here a lot. Being spring break the place should be crowded. Hotels/Motels have less than a dozen cars in their lots. RV park is about 30% full. I guess they did not want to lose any more money.
We will be leaving Friday to head back home. The local grocery store has specific hours from 7:00 AM to 8:00 AM for seniors only. Store is an easy walk so may go to see if I can pick up some stuff. The store stocks at night so should be a good chance of finding things. Even when I went on Sunday there was bread on the shelves, milk, some paper products. Water is completely gone. Do people thing the water supply system is going to stop working?
Regarding the EGO products. Good stuff. I have the string trimmer, hedge trimmer, chainsaw and blower. All work well. Watch the batteries if left on the charger. After 30 days of no use the charge will drop the battery pack to 20% level. A couple of hours before using unplug the battery and plug the battery back in to bring the battery back up to full charge.
I really have to wonder about the legality of a mayor or governor being able to tell a business when, and how to open. Even to restrict the movement of people. No Marshall Law has been declared. Restricting someone to their home is being arrested. That requires being charged with a crime. What is the law, statute or other legal precedent that allows a single person to make such declarations against others?
We’ve now been told to begin teleworking immediately. A few problems with that plan though. First, they haven’t finalized the plan yet. Second, they are debating going good t9 a split schedule. Sure, only being around SOME people will be ok. Finally, a lot of us do work in a closed area. We’ve been told the labs are not shutting down. So now we have to figure out some sort of rotation.
Some guys can’t work from home at all. They are strictly user and primary systems support. Myself and several of my guys can work from home. There is always documentation to catch up on, training, using the time to actually try the new stuff we keep meaning to look at, etc. Regardless, we all will have to be there some of the time for emergency support. I should know more tomorrow so I can develop a schedule.
Of course, if the infection rate continues to explode, I can always use some PTO. There’s a reason I don’t ever go below 4 weeks in the bank.
I really have to wonder about the legality of a mayor or governor being able to tell a business when, and how to open. Even to restrict the movement of people. No Marshall Law has been declared. Restricting someone to their home is being arrested. That requires being charged with a crime. What is the law, statute or other legal precedent that allows a single person to make such declarations against others?
A Mayor of a city could place a liquor license at stake and send the fire marshal to “find” violations if a restaurant still refused to comply.
I think in this case that a lot of restaurants would prefer to be closed or at least takeout only for at least a little while. State and local governments are actually providing cover. The states also won’t ding the restaurants for the unemployment insurance premiums.
Ray
“I regret to inform you that we have always lived in a country in which political officials can order private businesses closed.”
https://reason.com/2020/03/16/can-the-government-just-close-my-favorite-bar/
Alaska is up to four confirmed cases. Our first was a pass thru pilot on Friday. Two in Fairbanks yesterday (locals returned from travel). And fourth today in Ketchikan (off the road system, relatively small community in south east).
All schools are closed until end of month. Our daughters school is well under 50 including staff so could technically be open. They announced late a Friday they’d be closed this week. They announced today they’re closed next week as well, and taking it week by week from there.
Husband and I are prepping for school closed thru end of this school year.
I find myself looking in our pantry several times a day. I recognize it’s not particularly rational. It is comforting.
——-
Insert swear words.
We just jumped to 6. 3 in Fairbanks. 2 in Anchorage. 1 in Ketchikan.
1st case was Friday 3/13/2020.
My longer term concern is how TPTB will twist frightened peoples compliance with “shelter in place” to more permanently erode and eviscerate our remaining illusions of self-determination and freedom.
I can’t do much about that at the moment so am trying to compartmentalism that fear.
@jenny, we can still shoot them if they get out of hand.
For an example of where this is headed.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8123307/Italys-doctors-warn-catastrophic-situation-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-345-2-503.html
—no one can do math any more. At least their doubling rate has slowed to 4 days.
n
This was actually useful–
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8121937/Day-day-breakdown-coronavirus-symptoms.html
n
Smacking my head on desk….
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/south-korean-church-infects-46-parishioners-after-spraying-salt-water-their-mouths-prevent
n
For decorative shelving in this bachelor pad, or for normal folks in the basement/garage, I’m using SevilleClassics but I see they are made in China. Supply may be iffy. Once upon a time I had a long wall’s worth of Edsal clip together grey steel units. Made for an impressive library wall. Shelving.com shows something similar for ~$150 18x36x87″ plus shipping. Mine were truck delivered back in the day.
My retirement gig at a U-Store-It building downtown went away yesterday for the duration. Not too concerning to me as I was only half-time anyhow.
An old friend drove into town and is ensconced in a nearly empty near airport hotel where she planned to stay until mid April. Restaurant/Bar closed like all dining rooms in the city.
The gas station, convenience store across the street eliminated their tubular meat stick machine and the dozen coffee pot station plus the doughnut case.
Ummmm, tubular meat….. /end homer voice
took my suddenly best selling item off ebay temporarily. Ran out of boxes and don’t want to go to the post office for more. Sold about 10 today. Wish I was making $35 each, but nope.
Had to buy shipping labels from amazon too, and a ream of paper for my wife. Stuff I’d go to the store for, but no desire to risk it now. There’s something in that for the future, probably.
n
Well here in Oz the total of cases has risen to 559 with 6 deaths.
With our state at 35 and still only 1 death.
Schools are still open. 100 person maximum gathering @ 1.5metre (5ft) minimum distance.
Supermarkets have placed quantity restrictions on certain items. Most shelves of the basics are empty. Online delivery from one major supermarket (there are basically 3), has been suspended.
All overseas citizens are advised to return home. Looks like we are headed towards a lock-down.
Lots of doom and gloom by the media and online forums. With the virus tagged as the “boomer remover”… Wonderful!! (sarcasm off)..
My thoughts are with all of you here and your families..
Had to buy shipping labels from amazon too, and a ream of paper for my wife. Stuff I’d go to the store for, but no desire to risk it now. There’s something in that for the future, probably.
Been in an Office Depot since Christmas?
You’ll be the only one shopping in there, guaranteed.
@greg, I did consider that. Usually more employees than shoppers, and as a bonus they sell hand sanitizer in gallon jugs. Not that I need any, or that I actually thought there’d be any left.
I’m trying to follow my own advice though 🙂
n
I like this.
We’re Americans. We have more guns than the police and the military.
-sniff- Damn but I love this country!