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Month: February 2020

Sun. Feb. 9, 2020 – WuFlu has already killed more people than SARS

Cool, damp, windy

Yesterday was beautiful. Blue sky, sunny, and a strong breeze. Nice temps after morning lows too.

I did my hobby, watched child #2 play basketball, and got some errands run. Getting project materials from HD and Lowe’s was a step toward getting several projects completed or underway. I posted yesterday that there were no N95 masks left. No evidence that they were missing either, so I don’t think they’re keeping the shelves open for the restocking. CDC is worried about running out of masks, and WHO has only a month’s supply left according to an article.

China is forcibly removing people from their homes to take them to places where they can be isolated with a thousand other sick people. And live or die on their own merits. Anyone think getting all those sick people together in one place might have some bad unintended consequences? In light of that news, and the video of people being locked into their homes, anyone think this is just a bad flu that isn’t anything to worry about? It’s in the population in china and that’s what’s driving the increases. SO FAR, we don’t think it’s loose in OUR population, but if it gets loose, we’ll see the same things China is seeing. Anyone here think their employer can survive a month with no employees? Start making plans for how to keep your business going if a Wuhan style lockdown happens here… CDC’s site has a whole section on pandemic flu that I’ve referred to before, and I recommend reading again.

Start making plans for keeping yourself and your family going if that happens too. Act soon. If you wait for confirmation, you’ll be too late. I’m treating it like a Cat 5 hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Next step will be if it crosses into the Gulf, then if it’s heading right for us…. Only instead of bugging out, we’ll likely lock down. I really don’t want to be inside the ring road that would be an excellent natural demarc point if martial law or a quarantine were enforced. No other options at this point though, that wouldn’t be irrevocable and life changing.

We’ve got some time before it’s out in our population, and maybe it won’t break out here. That would be best. But China’s economy is already going to take a huge hit, and the hit just gets bigger every day this continues. THAT is going to have knock on effects all on its own. If anyone wants to see ‘irrational exuberance’ look at a market that goes UP when half a billion people are under movement restrictions, and possibly several million will be sick before this burns out. UP! Look at what happened so far in China in JUST ONE MONTH. More people have been killed by this in 29 days than from SARS in a year, and that’s using the official numbers! No matter what happens going forward, big changes are coming. And I don’t see anything to keep what’s happening now from continuing for some time.

Get prepped people. Seriously.

nick

Read the comments: 30 Comments

Sat. Feb. 8, 2020 – got stuff to do

Cool-ish and damp.

I’ve got my normal monthly non-prepping hobby meeting this morning, followed by sportsball with the kid, and all the normal Saturday stuff too.

I’m jumping like a one legged paper hanger in a room full of rocking chairs. Or something.

SERIOUSLY FOLKS, get some preps in order. You do not want to be going out into crowds, fighting over the last roll of toilet paper in a few weeks when the WuFlu is all around us. TP doesn’t really go bad, so you’ll use it if nothing happens. Get some food in too, even if you have to put it in buckets and stack the buckets on the patio. Some way to cook it would be prudent too, if things really go to 7734. And water. Soap. Bleach. Wipes. If you don’t have masks I’d be checking old school neighborhood hardware stores, auto paint suppliers, equipment rental houses, walmart’s paint department, and other less common places, maybe even beauty supply houses. If you have accounts with industrial suppliers, you might check there too. CDC wants people to be thrifty with masks now in case they’re needed later- meaning there won’t be increasing supply.

Lots of good info in the keyword links. We’ve got a couple weeks while the doubling is still very small numbers. By the time you get “confirmation” that it’s here, it will be too late, like it’s already too late to get cheap masks. Think of it as insurance. Spend the time, effort, and money.

Take a hard look at your finances too. As the truth of this thing starts to sink in, there is NO WAY the current bubble won’t pop. Don’t get caught in a rush for the exit. If I’m wrong, get back in in a month. Don’t get greedy and hang in for those last few gains. Do some profit taking fer pete’s sake.

And – Keep stacking,

nick

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Fri. Feb. 7, 2020 – what a week

Cold, damp, windy.

Did some ebay listings, and shipping yesterday. Took the kids to the gun store to sell some GS cookies. Shout out to my favorite merchant of death for his support of our troop.

More ebay to do today, more listing and more shipping. Also more local auction stuff and remote tech support for my mom, and on top of that, flights for two upcoming family trips. No wonder I feel like I don’t have any time.

WRT the WuFlu- I don’t think it’s going anywhere folks, but everywhere. Time to review the CDC site on pandemic flu and think hard about what it would mean to you. Kids at home, no work (or no workers if you are a business), severely restricted travel and gathering. Shortages. Lots of unprepared people acting badly.

Safest is to not be there. Barring that though, low profile and stay in avoiding everyone possible is probably best. How long? Who knows? But you can bet it will be longer than 72 hours. Take a long look at the rows of beds in the arenas in china. Is that where you want to end up? Now consider being there with the people from down the street and around the corner… I’m pretty sure we don’t have anything like the chinese mobile plague hospitals, but we do have cots on the arena floor.

But don’t take my word for it. Wargame it out yourself. Best case, worst case, most likely case. Just be sure you can defend your assumptions for each with something more than “I don’t want to believe it could ever be like that.”

Keep in mind a possible 2008 style collapse of the financial system too, and any knock on from the collapsing trade with china.

It’s normal prepping for the apocalypse, but with the added urgency of seeing legit paths there, and not just hypotheticals. And a timeline. A short one, measured in weeks and months.

Keep stacking.

nick

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Thur. Feb. 6, 2020 – what if the lies are exposed?

Cold and damp.

Yesterday stayed cool and damp all day, with overcast keeping me from seeing the sky. Today is shaping up to be the same, only cooler, with more wind.

I can’t believe it’s already Thursday. The weeks are flying by. I’ve got a bunch of stuff still left in the week to do. We’ll see if they get done.

So, what if China’s lies are REALLY BAD. What if the Tencent numbers are more accurate. In today’s world, keeping secrets is really hard. What will the world’s reaction be to finding out there are 25K dead from WuFlu, not 300? That just based on current infected, we’ll see another 25K or more dead in china. I think the world will lose its collective mind.

Violence in the streets? Marches? Panic to prep? You name it, the world coming together to help the people of Wuhan seems to be the LEAST likely outcome.

Think about the financial markets and their reaction. Healthcare providers and their stocks… Mask makers might see a bump, but who’s gonna pay for 10K cases showing up at the ER in Minneapolis?

I sincerely hope that I’m being an alarmist. I truly fear that I’m not alarmist enough. This sh!t is getting to me.

n

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Wed. Feb. 5, 2020 – same old, same old, plus WuFlu!

Cool and damp. [49F with a fine mist falling]

Yesterday stayed overcast but got up into the high 70s and 80s in some parts of town. I checked my local Ag extension planting guideline, and I should be getting my root crops in. I guess spring is coming.

School and activities continue. I’m taking the kids to sell GS cookies to my friend at the gun store. He’s a great supporter of the girls.

The political circus is starting to get into full swing. I’m going to avoid it as much as possible and concentrate on other things. I’m sure I won’t be able to avoid it completely. I would like it to be the only worry we have in six months, but I’m not sanguine about that.

The numbers out of china continue to rise. They may be false, but they are consistent. More video is making it out too. If you haven’t been following links to “man on the street” vids, you really should. The story that is implied by some of the vids really has to be seen to be appreciated. DailyMail is picking up some of the stories now too, if a couple of days late…

It’s an interesting question of how you get info during the apocalypse. For people in Wuhan, that word isn’t too strong. It’s their own societal and possibly personal SHTF. For some, it is literally TEOTWATKI. Lot more fistfight videos today than previously. I think the violence is about to break out as food is undoubtedly getting short. I’ve yet to see a story about brave truckers delivering food to the infected zone.

Keep in mind how fast this is all happening. For people in China, it must simultaneously feel like warp speed, and like an eternity.

Last week they were shopping and enjoying the holiday, today, they’re being barricaded into their homes.

Use the time we have to get your own shopping done. I have a feeling we won’t regret it this time. And Hey, in a month, if we’re not seeing any more cases outside of China, and our JIT economy based on selling each other cheap crap from China is still plugging along, you can mock me. I’ll be the one eating rice for every meal…. and wearing my face mask as a hat.

nick

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Tues. Feb. 4, 2020 – won’t have to move, yet

Cool and damp. [70F and 99%RH]

Yesterday stayed overcast most of the time but never rained. Today has some rain in the forecast, which I’d like to be wrong this time.

Daughter got into the middle school program she wanted, which we do not have to be zoned to (lottery, nothing I did). I’m glad I won’t have to be looking for a new house before fall semester starts. Maybe a bugout location (lake house) looks more doable now, since any local moves would be to a neighborhood where home prices start at more than double mine, for a tear down. It would have been a stretch to get into the zone we wanted, and would have involved a bunch of disruption.

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Speaking of disruption….

The number of infected continues to creep up. The curve is leveling out, but there’s no way to know if that is simply under reporting,. We know China lies. The other countries’ infected counts are in the slow starting phase. We’ll know soon if they will be taking off too. Given things like the Japanese cruise ship with an infected aboard, I’m pretty sure we’ll be seeing cases that don’t have a link to Wuhan in a week, two tops.
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I saw someone else using “WuFlu” yesterday, go me. And someone asked on the CDC call why they haven’t named it yet. The Dr was flustered in her response. Take the time to listen to the call and hear for yourself, but I think the CDC is shell shocked by this. At least the Dr was headed toward there.

Let’s list some issues- China lies. CDC has been kept out of China. Only reason to do that is if you are hiding something. CDC admits they are desperate to see the data so they can do their own math on transmission and lethality. Currently THEY DON’T KNOW, but they are scared. They invoked quarantine for the first time in 50 years. But like the Chinese, they are still making carefully worded statements designed to keep the public from reacting.

CDC doesn’t know where to put anyone who does arrive here and needs a quarantine. They say that is the state and local .gov’s job, and they should have already made plans, which CDC doesn’t want to countermand. It sounds like no one really made those plans, or they were paper only and unworkable.

CDC is trying to get more labs to do testing, as they are a bottleneck. RED TAPE is holding that up. Further to that, the test isn’t meant to be used for INDIVIDUAL DETERMINATIONS or diagnosis, but for monitoring the spread of the disease. Thanks guys. People without symptoms might pass the test but still be infected. NO ONE is being retested at this time. Dr was freaked that 20 days ago we had 40 cases and now we have 20k+… frankly that freaks me out and we can be pretty sure that number is TOO LOW.
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Fellas, I don’t know where this is going, but it could be very bad. Zombie apocalypse bad. I bet it feels that way in Wuhan. Certainly people living there have said so. The things we do see look very bad. Crews so inured to the situation (or so tired) they’re just hurling body bags into the van. People in scrubs and PPEs walking down alleys with rifles. Men barricading people into their homes. Video of people dropping dead without warning, or having seizures and then dying.

If this comes here in any widespread form, you will want to stay inside and hide. Imagine being in Wuhan or any of a dozen other cities right now. Crippled internet. No idea what’s really going on. Soldiers and armed men roaming around. No access to medical care for routine issues or emergencies. No transportation. No shopping. At what point do the people leave their homes? Why aren’t they in the streets right now? Where are all the people?
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I was discussing with my wife how many masks to sell to profit[eer] from the situation. I told her I was getting reluctant to let them go. “How many do you have?” “I was planning to keep at least 800…” “???!!!?!!?!?” “Well, that’s 200 days for the four of us.” “200 DAYS! !!111111!1 eleventy!” “Yeah, or 50 days if we go out at all. And what if our friends and acquaintances ask us for masks??” “——”

So I think I’ll sell a few boxes and get my total investment back. Then maybe sell a few more if the price keeps going up. I think I’ll keep the ones I found in the ebola supplies to give away to anyone who asks (that I can’t refuse), as they wouldn’t bring more than a hundred bucks or so anyway (while N95 and 3m, they are single strap and well out of date).

That doesn’t touch the full face respirators with cartridges, the potential for the forced air respirators (missing batteries and filters), the tyvek or bunny suits, and any masks I’ve got in my woodworking supplies. I’m pretty sure I’ve got some other boxes tucked away here and there too. I better start looking for them. And I better get some of the other stuff out of deep storage and see what parts I need to buy while I still can. I’m getting close to spending money on things that only make sense if the worst case is coming. That breaks one of my rules- nothing I do for preps can be irrevocable- if it takes the money away from other needs. I’d sure like to sell some stuff while people are still buying stuff they don’t need…..

I better check on a couple friends too, and see if they’re taking it seriously, and if not, find out why.

Keep stacking.

nick

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Mon. Feb. 3, 2020 – new week, new month, same old stuff

Cool and damp. [60F and 99%RH] Supposed to rain. I guess we’ll see.

Yesterday was flipping beautiful weather. I spent part of the day in the garage, cleaning shelves. I’ve decided I’m done with rats and need to put my stores back in order. I’ve got some losses with rusty cans but I’ve got ideas how to minimize that going forward. I don’t want to dip each can in lacquer, but I will if that’s the only way. I’ll try just keeping the rats off them as a start. I took some time to clean up in the yard too. I got some fresh air and sunshine.

I don’t know what the US financial markets will do today. They SHOULD go down, but with so many people buying the F’ing dip, who knows? China’s market tanked, surprising no one. Even if this ended tomorrow, the disruption is already taking off. This won’t end tomorrow.

Speaking of which, even my wife is awake now. She announced to the kids we’d be practicing not touching our faces, eyes, or mouths, and we’d be doing a lot more hand washing. Kids are getting a bit freaked out. Frankly, I am too. I don’t know if I WANT to sell my N95 masks even at a stupid profit. What if I need more than I intend to keep? To that end, I found some in my pandemic supplies that I can do without. They only have one strap, so I don’t like them, and they have the magic word- 3M so they sell well. They are NOS (New Old Stock) and out of date, but they do sell on ebay. They have a Habitat for Humanity price sticker, $5/box of 50. They are selling on ebay for $36/ box.

If you want some masks and think you’ve missed your chance, United Rentals had 3 boxes on the shelf when I was there renting my trailer. They didn’t even mark them up, so they were $1/ mask. I couldn’t help myself and bought one box. Point is, there are still masks out there, just maybe not in the first place you’d think to look. I’d try auto parts stores, tool rental houses, and places like that. My Grainger store has masks, the online tool lists 5 boxes in stock with 5 more available Tues. They have 6 other suitable styles available. Industrial suppliers are a good choice too. Auto paint suppliers might still have them.

WuFlu is coming to you… get yourself ready.

n

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Sun. Feb. 2, 2020 – in the last couple of days I became aware of a sportsball game being played today

Cold and damp. [Cool at 51F and 99%RH at 830am]

Never warmed up much yesterday, although the sun was out and the sky was clear. Nice day after the gloom.

I had my swapmeet, and sold a few small things. I bought a couple of books, and hung out with the guys. Good day. Then did some auction pickups, and a bit of thrifting. I know. Hey, I only bought some music and puzzles. I’ll get hours of entertainment from that, and it doesn’t take any space.

It seems that there is a big sports event today. I’m serious that I only realized that yesterday. I have NO interest at all and I’m completely separated from anyone who does. If you like it, I’m not knocking you for it, but I haven’t got the slightest interest. If the weather holds, I’ll be cleaning the rat soiled shelves so I can get my food back indoors.

The KungFlu (I still like WuFlu, but I’m the only one who does while I’ve seen the Kung Flu appellation in many places) continues to infect people. In a couple of weeks we’ll finally have independent observations about lethality (hopefully not) and infection. But possibly by then we’ll have 1,000,000 chinese infected too. The effect on the global economy is going to be devastating. Even if everyone went back to work tomorrow, the economy would take a hit. Everyone isn’t going back to work tomorrow.

Plan and act accordingly.

n

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Sat. Feb. 1, 2020 – out and about

Cool COLD and wet. 37F and 99%RH

No idea if I’ll get a chance to update the WuFlu numbers before I leave the house this morning.

Over 11K last night is a HUGE increase in one week. Oh, and we’ve got 9? in North America? that’s up from NONE only a few days ago. Not cool.

Non-prepping hobby followed by a couple of auction pickups, and maybe an 8yo’s basketball game.

It’s a great life if you don’t weaken.

Keep stacking.

n

Read the comments: 21 Comments
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