60F with a bit of misty drizzle left, although skies seem to be clearing. Got over 2 inches last night with some thunder and lightning. You’d have thought it was the Deluge by some of the overreaction in media. The Mayor’s office tweeted out reassurances that this was just normal weather in Houston and pointed the anxious to the crisis hotline. Jeez, we have a mental health crisis hotline for weather anxiety?
Most of Tx, and probably the South will be off tomorrow, or working as little as possible. Three day holiday weekend, so this week is pretty much done.
People in the markets seem to be waking up to the clothesless emperor. Looking at the charts from the last collapse, it took a year to fully take effect. There were short rallies within the overall decline too. Could be this is finally the long predicted “correction.” Note that a big drop in value is called a “correction.” I think that is telling on a deep level, ie. the lower level is the ‘correct’ one. Denninger has more but basically, the biggest drivers of the increase in value of the stock indexes don’t make money. Most of them also don’t have much room to grow, and a couple are embroiled in scandal. That doesn’t bode well for their long term stock prices. Financial engineering and a general desire to stay in and make every last dime have propped up the markets. That can’t continue forever either.
Along those lines, I see price deflation in my shopping cart too. Maple syrup, smoked salmon, hams- all lower in price than last year.
BTW, even if you personally don’t hold any stocks, and don’t have any retirement money, there are millions of other Americans who do. Insurance, pensions, IRAs, 401ks, and money market savings accounts will all be affected by a market “correction.” If it’s bad enough, the institutions have to sell into the market, making it even worse. Banks and insurers can fail, putting depositor’s money at risk and wiping out shareholders. Nothing about now is better than it was in 2008…
and with that,
time to start the day.
nick
41º and foggy near Perry’s shipyards. Forecast as late as yesterday was 90% chance of rain. Today it’s clear in the morning and will likely rain this afternoon. But the weekend is clearing, so we’ll likely be dry for Saturday’s race.
Working on bread recipes. Just trying to get it “right”. I want a sandwich-making loaf. I have a decent, tasty, moist, good-crumb whitebread now. But it’s a little dense and never seems to rise enough. So I’m working on that – changing one thing at a time to try to make it better.
The market worries me, but not as much as it used to. There’s no reason that this one won’t pass as it has in the past. Just don’t panic, and do what’s needful when it’s due. Not before, and not too late. That’s my thinking at least.
if you personally don’t hold any stocks, and don’t have any retirement money, there are millions of other Americans who do
I am one of those millions, several hundred thousands of dollars. I have never been disappointed in my returns in the market. Biggest mistake I made was converting one account from mutual funds to a fixed income (pays 3%, so not too bad) just before the election. Lost several thousands of dollars in increase in value.
All the experts state, and history proves this, is that staying in the market for the long term is the only way to beat inflation. Don’t panic on the downturns and stay the course. This happened in 2008 where the market effectively crashed. My decrease in value was well over a quarter million dollars. Yet that has recovered by a substantial margin.
I am mostly in conservative, well diversified, funds. I don’t realize the significant gains but I also don’t suffer the significant losses. I have about another five years left in the market, enough time to recover from any correction that takes place. Too many companies and people have too much money in the market, the economy is too strong, for a long term dip in the market.
Yes, there is risk but it is a risk I am willing to take. I have quite a bit of money that is in insured accounts with zero risk. Returns suck and I know that. That is my fall back money if I have to wait for the market to recover, which historically it always does.
My biggest upcoming concern is that much of my significant increase in value and earnings has not been taxed. I am having to work with my financial adviser to come up with a strategy to minimize what I pay in taxes. That boundary is two years away. As long as the wife is on Obuttwad Care I have to be very careful in what becomes earnings that are considered taxable income as that affects the subsidy and the amount I pay for the coverage.
I am basically locked in to not drawing on any of my untaxed funds until wife gets on Medicare. The tax consequences are substantial.
I second Ray’s outlook. I’m only 44, but have substantial investments in the market. It’s not fun looking at account values going down, but I have confidence that the long term growth will be there.
Of course, I am also concerned about our path. We can’t keep going like we have been forever. Have we saved ourselves at the expense of the next generation? I hope not, but it sure seems that way…
My only investments in the market are in my tiny retirement plan. All my capital is in real estate and my businesses. It works for me. I never have to worry about market booms or crashes. I can increase the value of my investments with some paint or siding. My way isn’t for everyone but I am happy with it providing an income stream into my doteage.
I had almost a million in MCI stock and options when I worked there as a manager, thought that would be my retirement. Then they went bust and I lost it all. Colored my view of investments. If I can’t control it I don’t want it.
Various things here in the Cornhusker state close for Good Friday, but most do not. My daughter’s after-school care program is closed that day. They sent some generic email about being closed for Good Friday so employees can spend time with their families. I enjoy giving them a bunch of shit about it, “So, do you and your family have a lot of fun Good Friday activities planned?”
Of course, the overwhelming majority of their employees are part-timers. So, they also get to lose out on a day of pay. You can never explain the hours worked to pay received correlation to teens and young adults. They whine about how small their paycheck is, but jump at every opportunity to clock out early, constantly beg coworkers to cover a shift for them, and celebrate every silly unpaid day off. For some reason they just can’t make the connection that the fewer hours they work the less they make.
@Chad
fewer hours they work the less they make.
I figured out this correlation in my very early 20s.
I had a no tech skill required temporary data entry job I got by virtue of my typing speed. It was a ‘holding place’ job while I searched for a job in my known fields, vet tech or blood banking component tech. I was self-supporting. The job was swing shift. The computer equipment we used tended to break. Frequently. None of the windows guys were around on swing shift, and the mainframe guys held nothing but contempt for the document scanning equipment I used.
Each time it broke down the mainframe guys would shrug and send me home, much to the diminishment of my paycheck.
The second or third time it happened and the mainframe guys shrugged, I asked if I could take a crack at it.
“You know anything about Windows?”
“Nope, but I need to make rent.”
Huge grin on the mainframe guys face.
“Go for it”
My logic was if I was ‘fixing the equipment’ I could stay on the clock. I found the manuals and online help files. I didn’t fix it, but it launched my IT career. Started showing up early so I could badger the Windows guys with questions. A lot of questions. Sometimes appallingly ignorant questions.
Couple of the guys took me under their wings and fed me everything IT I could handle. Had one or two women mentors. They were all incredibly generous with their knowledge and patient (“yes, but WHY is it called the C drive? Why not the A or B?”)
Sometimes the threat of a thin paycheck can lead to good stuff. It can be a heck of a motivator under the right circumstances.
60F with a bit of misty drizzle left, although skies seem to be clearing. Got over 2 inches last night with some thunder and lightning. You’d have thought it was the Deluge by some of the overreaction in media.
Over the last two decades, things have been built in really ridiculous places around Austin so a sudden couple of inches of rain turns into a catastrophe, especially in new neighborhoods south of downtown.
BTW, even if you personally don’t hold any stocks, and don’t have any retirement money, there are millions of other Americans who do. Insurance, pensions, IRAs, 401ks, and money market savings accounts will all be affected by a market “correction.”
Public pension fund underfunding will require massive taxpayer bailouts when the big correction starts. So far, the courts have placed the interests of the pensioners ahead of the bondholders and taxpayers even in basket cases like Detroit. Expect the trend to continue as long as possible.
Should I convert my investments to gold and silver?
So far, the courts have placed the interests of the pensioners ahead of the bondholders and taxpayers even in basket cases like Detroit.
In some states, they have no choice – the state constitution puts the retirement fund ahead of all other spending in the state.
“Should I convert my investments to gold and silver?”
Can’t answer that directly; however, WRT bitcoins,,,,,,,,,,
In some states, they have no choice – the state constitution puts the retirement fund ahead of all other spending in the state.
Laws written when a “low” 30 year mortgage interest rate was 8%.
My metals have been and always will be in coin silver. My Dad and Maternal Grandfather started me out with a lot of old silver dollars, most uncirculated. I started buying U.S coin silver in my teens, when their was no premium. I have face value more than I care to say. I still buy some new silver directly from the Mint when it is new issue (the Mint sends me an email and snail mail) and before it gets to the coin sellers who mark it up.
My Great Grandfather left a stash of $20 gold pieces to be distributed to his Great Grandchildren (his children and grandchildren also got shares). So I have a “few” of those. From what I understand from oral family history my Great Grandfather only used gold and cattle as a medium of exchange.
Got over 2 inches last night with some thunder and lightning. You’d have thought it was the Deluge by some of the overreaction in media. The Mayor’s office tweeted out reassurances that this was just normal weather in Houston and pointed the anxious to the crisis hotline.
We got 5 or 6 inches of rain last night in west Fort Bend County. My swimming pool overflowed at 4 inches of rain so I really don’t know. The front pond at the office picked up a foot of water and doubled in size to an acre. The back pond at the office picked up a half foot but is a half foot short of the overflow. The Brazos river is coming up quickly and predicted to rise almost 30 ft in the next couple of days.
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=HGX&gage=RMOT2
Yup, looking at the buckets in the yard and driveway, we got closer to 4 inches. My digital gauge resets at 1am, so didn’t capture any info before then.
n
In celebration of World Backup Day, March 31, I will be changing our next to last 4 TB internal backup hard drive for a 8 TB hard drive stripped from an external USB drive.
https://www.backblaze.com/blog/world-backup-day-2018-backing-up-the-world/
I ordered another WD 8 TB external USB drive from Big River yesterday to replace the last 4 TB internal drive. I will probably get to that in a month or so. Surely by the end of the year.
https://www.amazon.com/Book-Desktop-External-Drive-WDBBGB0080HBK-NESN/dp/B01LQQHLGC/
Along those lines, I see price deflation in my shopping cart too. Maple syrup, smoked salmon, hams- all lower in price than last year.
Dude, we are shopping at different places. My Brachs Candy Corn jumped from $1.69 to $1.88 at HEB since the first of the year. And yes, it is a luxury, and an addiction.
I refilled my Rythmol generic drug at Walgreens for the first time the other day. The list price went from $590 to $800 for a 30 day supply. My BCBS copay was $10. I wonder what BCBS is actually paying.
I refilled my Rythmol generic drug at Walgreens for the first time the other day. The list price went from $590 to $800 for a 30 day supply. My BCBS copay was $10. I wonder what BCBS is actually paying.
Call a Canadian pharmacy for a quote on the prescription. Or one in Mexico.
The production line making pills destined for Walgreens stores in Texas probably also supplies the pharmacy in Mexico.
It is a racket in the full legal sense of the word.
Market distortion by .gov and .ins. Makes me nuts.
We need a reset REALLY bad. But it will probably BE really BAD.
BTW, even if you personally don’t hold any stocks, and don’t have any retirement money, there are millions of other Americans who do. Insurance, pensions, IRAs, 401ks, and money market savings accounts will all be affected by a market “correction.”
Public pension fund underfunding will require massive taxpayer bailouts when the big correction starts. So far, the courts have placed the interests of the pensioners ahead of the bondholders and taxpayers even in basket cases like Detroit. Expect the trend to continue as long as possible.
The very recent $1.3 trillion dollar six month budget reputedly had bailouts in it for several PRIVATE pension funds. I cannot find anything that says this but Congress is definitely looking into it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-21/congress-just-quietly-formed-committee-bail-out-200-pension-funds
Then they went bust and I lost it all. Colored my view of investments
That will do it. But those are not really safe investments, all tied to the whims of one company. Never, ever put all your money in company stock. Diversify is the key. Many company retirement plans will only accumulate company stock and you have no choice. You might be able to fund your own 401K but there are limits imposed by the IRS if you have a company retirement plan.
I personally think anyone should be able to put any amount they want into a 401K. No limits, no boundaries. If you have a million you want to defer taxes you should be able to do so without penalties. It is your retirement money.
I worked for a large bank holding company, National Bancshares (correct spelling) Corporation, in Texas for six years from 1982 to 1988. Entered their retirement plan, entirely funded by the bank. When the oil started going bust the bank was struggling. Sold their IT to M-Tech (which was bought by EDS, which was bought by GM). Anyone that had less than $3500.00 in retirement funds got a direct payout. Those with more nothing. I was in the latter group.
Several years ago when I turned 59.5 I got a letter from Bank of America requesting I make a decision regarding my retirement plan. I had never worked for BofA. Turns out the retirement funds had somehow become the responsibility of BofA. So I now get a measly amount each month for having worked six years. Not even enough to supply gas for the vehicles. Thought I would never see any money so it was a surprise.
I have seen the balance sheets on the fund. It is several billion dollars. I am guessing with that amount that the fund has been rolled into BofA accounts along with other banks that may have been absorbed. The law firm gets $14 million a year for administering the fund. I offered to do it for a million dollars and was turned down.
Friend of mine worked for Allied Signal for all his life. Had built up a substantial retirement fund in company contributed dollars. Problem is those funds are still considered company assets. Six months before he retired, at which time his retirement would have been fully funded, Allied Signal was bought by Breed Technologies. All his retirement money went to the new company and his account was set back to zero. He was not a happy camper as were a lot of other people with significant retirement funds. The amount stolen from the workers was several million dollars. Breed Technologies gave them the middle finger and there was no legal options for the workers.
My BCBS copay was $10. I wonder what BCBS is actually paying
Probably about $80.00 dollars. Most of the stuff I have seen is about 10% of the price the uninsured would pay. I had a case where my insurance copay on a drug was more than what it would be if I just paid for it myself at Walmart discounted prices. The entire system sucks to the advantage of the drug companies and the doctor conglomerates.
For some reason they just can’t make the connection that the fewer hours they work the less they make
I see a lot of these youngsters out on their own living in an apartment. They scream because their electric bill (with electric heat) is $500.00. The correlation between the fact that it is winter, it was below freezing most of the month, just does not seem to register. No concept of cause and effect.
They also do not comprehend taxes that are taken out of their paycheck. Some have lived on the public dole part of their life and are shocked when they learn the “free” money from the government actually comes out of other people’s paychecks. A rude awakening as to how the welfare works.
We have raised a generation of idiots. And these idiots will seem like geniuses to the next upcoming generation who think eating soap packets is kewl.
I refilled my Rythmol generic drug at Walgreens for the first time the other day. The list price went from $590 to $800 for a 30 day supply. My BCBS copay was $10. I wonder what BCBS is actually paying.
I work in the pharmaceutical business as development scientist. A couple of years ago our head marketing guy gave us a presentation drug pricing and what they were planning to do when we went to market a new drug we were working on. It is absolutely bizarre. There is a list price but I doubt anyone ever pays it. Pharmacies, insurance agencies, and government agencies all negotiate (or demand) certain prices. Losses with one group are made up for in another group. I decided it was illogical and no longer try to understand it.
What I can tell you is that it is very expensive to bring a drug to market. The work required to satisfy the regulators is enormous. And if you want to sell in other countries (and we do) you have to deal with their regulations, too.
“Report: Israeli stealth fighters fly over Iran”
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Israeli-stealth-fighters-fly-over-Iran-547421
“Two IAF F-35 Adir fighter jets entered Iranian airspace undetected, according to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida.”
Oh my.
Hat tip to:
http://drudgereport.com/
I refilled my Rythmol generic drug at Walgreens for the first time the other day. The list price went from $590 to $800 for a 30 day supply. My BCBS copay was $10. I wonder what BCBS is actually paying.
Call a Canadian pharmacy for a quote on the prescription. Or one in Mexico.
The production line making pills destined for Walgreens stores in Texas probably also supplies the pharmacy in Mexico.
It is a racket in the full legal sense of the word.
The Rythmol generic, Propafenone, is made in Germany.
And yes, this whole thing is a racket. I blame the wild boys with their oh so accurate spreadsheets.
The very recent $1.3 trillion dollar six month budget reputedly had bailouts in it for several PRIVATE pension funds. I cannot find anything that says this but Congress is definitely looking into it.
When the Dems take back Congress, Teresa Ghilarducci will return to being a regular presence in hearings on retirements and pension on Capitol Hill. You want to keep an eye out for that name because she will be the architect of whatever scheme is eventually proposed to seize private pensions and 401(k) plans in order to fund a general retirement program for everyone.
Ghilarducci was a regular on the Hill during the first two years of the Clinton and Obama regimes.
Facing boycott, Laura Ingraham apologizes for taunting Parkland teen over college rejections
“Ingraham appeared to take back her comments Thursday afternoon, hours after Hogg sent a tweet calling for advertisers to boycott her Fox News show. Hogg’s widely shared tweet resulted in at least three brands promising to sever their relationships with Ingraham before she apologized.”
Damn, what with me boycotting the boycotters, soon I won’t be able to buy anything at all! 🙂
For those of you who may remember a previous comment of mine complaining about profanity and thought my use of the word “damn” to be out of character, it could have been much, much worse:
Althouse: I thought Laura Ingraham had called David Hogg a “mother.”
“I didn’t want to put this in the headline, because I keep getting email from Google Ads saying they’re punishing me for failing to stay within the bounds of good taste, but I come from a time when “mother” was an epithet that meant “motherfucker.” Based on Urban Dictionary, I think that usage is dead.”
Dead? Dead? Say it ain’t so! What are the kidz using for mortal insults these days?
“Trouble in candy land”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/03/29/feature/trouble-in-candy-land-how-peeps-pensions-and-a-lawsuit-threaten-to-upend-the-american-retirement-system/?utm_term=.c5ad209e0b23
What a freaking disaster !
Hat tip to:
http://drudgereport.com/
We can thank FDR and WWII for creating the mess we are in now. It goes back to the wage and price controls instituted by FDR and the beginning of WWII, so in order the attract and keep good workers the gooberment allowed employers to offer pensions, medical insurance, vacations, and other perks of value but that did not involve putting actual cash into a person’s pocket. Allowing the private sector to control these benefits did not last for long, the gooberment had to step in and control them.
So since 1942 our gooberment has been on a path of more control of every aspect of our lives, and death.
Sure we can talk about market crashes in the 1800s and early 1900s, but it wasn’t until wage and price controls was our fate sealed.
Yes, it will take a great cataclysm to bring us to reality. But the human species has proven time and time again that they are stupid and cannot learn from the past. And now that we have about 5 generations living who have not been taught real history our fate is sealed.
And I leave you with this little tune (Barry McGuire – Eve of Destruction):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfZVu0alU0I
I was wondering why “Nutrish” would pull it’s ads, then realized “Rachel Ray”. Duh.
If you missed Don tRump, Jr’s smackdown of Jeb! Here it is:
Donald Trump Jr. TRUTH-THROTTLES Jeb! for CLASSLESS dig at POTUS’s children
seize private pensions and 401(k) plans in order to fund a general retirement program
And probably charge the person *donating* the money income tax on the money that was seized.
Oh yeah, removing the internal hard drive from the 8 TB WD external USB drive was destructive again. The top panel came off in about 4 pieces.
https://www.amazon.com/Book-Desktop-External-Drive-WDBBGB0080HBK-NESN/dp/B01LQQHLGC/
And before one removes the USB daughter board from it, you have to repartition and reformat it NTFS as it comes formatted EXFAT which is not supported for internal drives under Windows 7 x64.
And I leave you with this little tune (Barry McGuire – Eve of Destruction):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfZVu0alU0I M
No relation that I know of. I have decided that McGuire is Irish for Smith.
Surely the seizing of ira’s and 401(k) plans would be the tipping point to revolution. I don’t see how that could happen, though I could also be in denial.
If it happens it’ll be because they’ve made it look like the best option.
And everyone will go along. because who you gonna shoot?
n
and it’s all just bits on a drive somewhere anyway.
n
and it’s all just bits on a drive somewhere anyway.
I drive past my real estate IRA 2 to 4 times a day …
If you missed Don tRump, Jr’s smackdown of Jeb!
Jeb! isn’t exactly a model father/husband.
He was a decent Governor of Florida, but his extracurricular antics in Tallahassee were well known.
And before one removes the USB daughter board from it, you have to repartition and reformat it NTFS as it comes formatted EXFAT which is not supported for internal drives under Windows 7 x64.
When I took a Forensics course, I bought a $20 cable set from Newegg that connects a bare drive to a USB port. Very handy.
What a freaking disaster !
The Post glosses over the union’s antics in pushing Twinkies into Bankruptcy.
I watched the Death Star break the union in 2009, but, really, the union broke itself that summer.
Kinda hard to argue you are underpaid when one of the rank-and-file is on national TV showing off $80,000 worth of sex change surgery.
When I took a Forensics course, I bought a $20 cable set from Newegg that connects a bare drive to a USB port. Very handy.
I saved the USB daughter board, the power supply, and the USB cable. It is incredibly easy to hook up.
So what I’m seeing them say is that the pension funds are Ponzi schemes. They depend on the next generation to pay for the pension the current one.
Am I missing something?
That was a rhetorical question. Pensions are good. Savings are good. Incentives to save for retirement are not bad.
@JimL, yep, ponzis. Due to the way they are run in reality. Assuming extraordinarily high rates of return when figuring how much investment the fund must make, then counting on continuing contributions to make up the difference is a ponzi.
If the funds were fully funded at ACTUAL rates of return, they would be fine. No one wants to do that though.
Remember when it changed? It wasn’t an accident. The age of LBOs and corporate raiders is when they changed the rules for how the funds were provisioned. You know, so that the financial bright boys could raid the pension funds and “put all that excess cash to work”. Put it to work buying homes in the Hamptons and pied e terres in The City for their mistresses is what they meant.
All above board and legal. . . and the taxpayers will pick up the tab. Suckers.
n