09:28 – Barbara is cleaning house this morning and then packing to leave tomorrow on her trip to Brasstown, NC, which, as it turns out, is more like 300 miles from here than 200. It’s a five- or six-hour drive, depending on what route she takes.
I’ll try to convince her to toss a comprehensive emergency kit in the back of her car, and to keep her gas tank full enough to get home from wherever she happens to be. It’s not that I expect a disaster to occur while she’s away. I don’t, but there is a small but finite chance of something really bad happening at any moment, and there’s no reason for her not to have a good emergency kit in the car. Having it with her costs nothing but an extra five or ten cents worth of gasoline to haul the extra weight.
People sometimes ask me what I think the chances are of something “really bad” happening. My simple wild-ass guess is that there’s maybe a 3% chance of that over the next year, 20% over the next five years, and 50% over the next ten. So, while the probability is close to 0% of it happening today or next week or even next month, I think the odds are very high that it will happen sometime over the next 10 to 15 years. That doesn’t mean we have 10 or 15 years to prepare, because the probability of it happening tomorrow is just as high as it happening 15 years from tomorrow.
And there we have it, folks, for us innumerates; a quick little lesson in probability. And knowing The Wizard like we do, I would hazard another wild-ass guess that his is not actually a wild-ass guess.
OFD’s wild-ass guess, concerning something “really bad” happening, based on constant reading, observing, and very complex, intricate and comprehensive intelligence analysis at the global strategy and international financial levels, lol:
10% over this next eight months to a year. What will it be? I’m thinking a financial/economic crash, worse than 2008, and with repercussions worldwide. There will be some panic. Pay attention to Argentina and the ongoing nightmare in Venezuela. But our brilliant leaders and military geniuses are doing everything they can to touch off another hot war somewhere, whether Syria, Ukraine or the Chicom “sphere of influence” in the far Pacific.
50% over the next five years, regardless of who is in the WH, Congress and SCOTUS; the mess is way too big for a few slack-jawed, drooling, half-baked cretins to even attempt to fix at this late date. We are dealing with brain-damaged baboons, basically, with their fingers on nuke triggers and world markets and they don’t have a fucking clue. Watch for a general or a cabal of generals to step in at some point, as when “national security” really IS at stake.
In ten to fifteen years, this will be a drastically changed country on many levels; we can see it happening around us even now. We’ve sown the wind and will be reaping a whirlwind of some kind by then; I sincerely hope it’s a gradual and relatively non-violent slide, but I fear that fault lines grow more distinct by the hour and there will be many sorts of reckonings to come.
I’m trying to get us up to speed here for the major basic human needs, considering this climate and geography and proximity to Megalopolis, and I hope to get the really solid basic stuff done by the new year’s start. We need to be ready for three to six months of a bitter cold and snowy winter with no power, and facing the potential for heightened criminal activity locally by increasingly desperate people. I’m comfortable with our wood heat situation (though what we’ll do about getting firewood cut, hauled and stacked ten or even five years from now is an issue), but I want alternative power on the well pump and associated gear.
We have a ways to go for food and portable wotta storage, though, and we’re meanwhile experimenting and working with various gardening methodologies. I also need to get much more up to speed on commo and intel stuff locally, and although I’m good with our little defense arsenal, I intend to drastically beef up the ammo, along with basic reloading capability.
Initial prep goal is to have most of this done by New Year’s Eve. And then we can keep adding to it and meanwhile learning new skillz.
Gorgeous day so fah; working outside, on porch, in living room, and then to open up this machine and throw in the SSD. (the entire cloning process from one 1TB drive to the new one took over eighteen hours, and it was only 2/3 full of data and apps). Meanwhile my ThinkPad screen has decided to flicker a lot and then take frequent naps, from which it does not awake. Annoying.
And apropos of my previous “wild-ass” predictions, there is the next 30-50 years, and not just over in “old Europe,” either:
http://gatesofvienna.net/2016/05/matt-bracken-the-hybrid-vigor-of-the-coming-european-islamic-state/
Agitprop in meatspace: give ’em a taste of their own chit.
http://comeandmakeit.blogspot.com/2016/05/stop-being-so-nice-enemy-is-not.html
It’s a SWAG because I don’t have the data I’d need for anything better, and even if I did there are simply too many variables. I used to be pretty good at multivariate analysis, but that was a long time ago and my mind is not what it was then. And even then, this would have been far beyond my capabilities. A SWAG is about the best any of us can do.
Then SWAG it is. We’ll see in the next few months and years. One look around me today at the WHITEY underclass elements in this AO tells me that while there is always hope, despair is nibbling at its heels. Jeezum, what a useless lot, as discussed in the sci-fi thread still going on from yesterday here. Murkan derps, writ very large, clueless, mostly illiterate, innumerate, and ignorant of any history before they were born, if even that. Make loud noises with cars and motorcycles, smoke ciggies, watch tee-vee, check their iPads and cells, and otherwise constitute a blot on the natural landscape. And we know it’s worse but at least more exciting in the inner cities and barrios. Soon enough it could get more exciting here, too.
Did some basic raking out in the yard for about a half-hour, moved some chit around, and that was all my back could take for today, what a loser. Jeez. Will try again tomorrow; at least the mower fired right up and I got chit outta the way for the truckload of topsoil to be delivered Monday. Maybe take a trip up the road a ways tomorrow and grab some vegetable plants, native to northern VT stuff, and get some seeds started for the “extended” season here, what a laff.
Jeezum, what a useless lot, as discussed in the sci-fi thread still going on from yesterday here. Murkan derps, writ very large, clueless, mostly illiterate, innumerate, and ignorant of any history before they were born, if even that.
poze im eboncis plz can unnersan jooz
And knowing The Wizard like we do, I would hazard another wild-ass guess that his is not actually a wild-ass guess.
That there is a SWAG, a scientific wild ass guess. There is a difference.
In ten to fifteen years, this will be a drastically changed country on many levels; we can see it happening around us even now. We’ve sown the wind and will be reaping a whirlwind of some kind by then; I sincerely hope it’s a gradual and relatively non-violent slide, but I fear that fault lines grow more distinct by the hour and there will be many sorts of reckonings to come.
I’m just hoping that we do not get a false flag even as many of the post apocalyptic books are built on. They make great stories but I would hate to have to live through one.
After 18 hours of cloning, I finally got the new SSD into the Win8.1 machine; don’t see any dramatic boot speed yet, though. Or any other dramatic speed so fah. The new 500-watt power supply was a bust, as was the new graphics card; system would not boot with either one. Oh well; I’ll find a use for them in some other machine here at some point. I was just hoping for some kicked-up boots and fast app loading with the SSD but we’ll see. Many hours this afternoon spent on it, as for some odd reason, my hands and fingers don’t fit very well inside the damn case and around all the sharp corners. Been a while since I messed with the guts of these things. It was MUCH easier throwing the SSD into wife’s Acer laptop and she sees yuuuuuuuge speed increases.
Next door, the neighbor wife was busting her butt cleaning and detailing their main vehicle, taking all afternoon on it, inch by inch; meanwhile her wallyhog beast of a daughter comes over there with her screeching toddler and I can hear them arguing and bitching at each other; the mom and stepdad bust their asses and pay for all that pig’s chit, plus whatever she gets in welfare and bennies, and the pig does absolutely nothing except smoke ciggies and consult her iPad, even while waddling back and forth between the two houses.
And across the street, the subsidized housing derps are having a cookout, but all seem well-behaved and there are kids there and all looks good. While right now, Andy, my fellow ‘Nam vet, is standing on his back step having a ciggie and eyeballing the ‘hood through his shades.
As the motorhead douchenozzle ratfuckers race their engines up and down and all around the AO, some with the usual shitty wigger tunes blasting.
Another Saturday afternoon in the village.
Some days I kinda wish we’d found a house more isolated and out in the sticks, but too late now. Summer’s over soon enough and after Labor Day all these muffs disappear and it’s nice and quiet again for six to eight months.
Home from doing my shipping and seeing the chiropractor. Back is better at the moment, but will soon spasm and be nearly back to where it was. Couple more daily trips with slight improvement each time is what history leads me to expect.
Got the big pot on the boil. 7yo is having her birthday dinner today and she asked for king crab legs. Not like I’M gonna argue about a pot full of tasty crab. Beats the hells out of ChuckECheeze.
Hit 2 small sales on the way to the post office, picked up a complete works of Louis Carroll for a dollar, and a classic cook book.
Scored a pair of cargo shorts for $5 at goodwill, blackhawk ‘warrior ware’. Nice sturdy shorts with more pockets than Cankles has secrets.
Sold a couple of things this week. Stopped by the fun store. My consignment upper is still there, so I still don’t have an M-4gery. They’ve been doing a steady business, the CHL class was full, and the 20 something salesgirl noted that things are getting particularly weird in the world. Keep buying, keep stacking…..
nick
Wow, after a nice sunny day, the skies just opened up. .57 inch in the last 7 minutes. and still coming down.
n
radar looks like we’re gonna have a wet night.
“That there is a SWAG, a scientific wild ass guess. There is a difference.”
Well in my scientist and engineer circles SWAG is a super wild ass guess. So, there is another difference for you. As the saying goes, “different strokes…”.
How about Supercilious Wild-Assed Guess, where you insult the person you’re giving your guess to.
“Back is better at the moment, but will soon spasm and be nearly back to where it was.”
I was asked several times if I was having spasms with my back pain and sciatica and I was not; they said if I was, there would have to be some meds for me to stop them, or it would just get worse, spasms kicking off pain kicking off spasms, of course. So you may wanna check into that; those gotta stop somehow. I also did four hits of Motrin or Aleve three times a day and that seemed to take the edge off, plus the tennis ball treatment and sleeping at night on my side with a pillow between my knees. Give any of that a shot, Mr. nick, see if it works for ya; we’re all different.
“Not like I’M gonna argue about a pot full of tasty crab. Beats the hells out of ChuckECheeze.”
Me, neither. Screw that ChuckECheese bull-chit. Pot ‘o crab with Old Bay Seasoning, clam fritters on the side with lemon and tartar, and rather than the French fries everyone else in Murka loves and gobbles by the boxcar load, I’d rather have them baked with loads of sour cream, butter, cheese, and bacon. Or simply peeled and roasted. Ears of corn and tomatoes. Lemon meringue pie or Key Lime pie for dessert.
“Nice sturdy shorts with more pockets than Cankles has secrets.”
Now don’t leaving nuthin’ hangin’ outta them shorts while yer daydreamin’ ’bout Cankles…
“…the 20 something salesgirl noted that things are getting particularly weird in the world. Keep buying, keep stacking…..”
Exactly. You. Ain’t. Got. Enough. Ammo.
Next checks come in here, I’ll by loading up for AR, AK, 9mm and 10mm, primarily. And I have most of the tools I’ll need for my soon-to-be-assembled workbench operation up in our attic; gotta get fans and/or AC up there forthwith, however; it’s an oven already. We really need to punch a couple of holes for vents in the opposite wall from the one existing window. Need masons/brickworker guys for that.
In other extremely local nooz, for any of you birders out there; a yellow one just outside my office window yesterday, looked like a goldfinch. And a red bird, NOT our usual cardinal pairs, and I’m thinking scarlet tanager. Plus our usual seagulls, turkey buzzards, crows, ravens, robins, chickadees, pigeons, bald eagles, golden eagles and various hawks. Several of the backyard birds Do Not Like The Cats and will now swoop down on them and dive-bomb them, very entertaining to watch.
We’ve seen maybe a couple of bumblebees and that’s it; no evidence of bats yet. Bummer. Thinking of letting some beekeeper or other keep a couple or three hives here. And putting in bat houses.
Say, Wizard Bob, y’all are out in the country now fo’ real; what wildlife, birds, etc., you seeing and hearing so fah?
Chiropractor advised continuing with heavy antiinflammatories, cold for 15 min every 2 hours, and rest. I like heat for the relief, but he says no, we’re trying to reduce the swelling. Man that heat feels good though.
Crab was excellent. 3 1/2 pounds between my wife, me, and a 5 and 7 yo girl child. Those kids can pack it away. Added carrots from the garden, some asparagus, and that was heaven. Kinda pricey meal, but so good. Nice to splash out every once in a while.
Jello for dessert, per the birthday girl. Saved a bit there 🙂
Wind shifted and the train of storms has moved out into the gulf. That’s our weather. Change, and more change, mixed with microclimates.
As to birds, we normally get bluejays, robins, cardinals, mourning doves, the occasional hummingbird, crows, and a large scavenger that competes with the crows. We sometimes get some seabirds, like the snowy egret. Saw something beautiful in the ditch yesterday, gray, long neck, long legs, black on the head. Very pretty seabird. [looks like some kind of cormorant.]
nick
“… cold for 15 min every 2 hours, and rest. I like heat for the relief, but he says no, we’re trying to reduce the swelling. Man that heat feels good though.”
Many, many moons ago when I first injured my back (lifting a spare tire onto a wheel with both hands at ground level put me into an agonizing crab walk to the house, at which time a heavy downpour began; screwed and in nonstop pain for a week, until I could manage to get to the nearest ER and score some painkillers) I tried the chiropractors and they ran about 50-50: in one case, instant relief. In another, I hobbled out to the parking lot dragging one leg behind me, worse than when I’d gone in.
Current recommendations I got were to put ice on it first thing after feeling the pain and then maybe a steroid shot would knock it out right away. But that was all too late for me this time, trying to tough it out. So then they said, well, do the moist heat. That did zero for me. Ice did zero. Ibuprofen, zero. Right now, ’cause I tried to do more chit outside today, it’s stiff and tired and sore.
“Kinda pricey meal, but so good. Nice to splash out every once in a while. Jello for dessert, per the birthday girl. Saved a bit there.”
Indeed. We’ll probably have a seafood lunch Thursday when wife gets back from wunnerful Kalifornia. Then I gotta plan something to grill for the National Frigging Holiday, Memorial Day, when the summuh season kicks off after a quick glance at parades and suchlike for all our dead warrior heroes from all the useless and unjustifiable wars since the 17th-C.
“Saw something beautiful in the ditch yesterday, gray, long neck, long legs, black on the head. Very pretty seabird.”
Possibly some kind of heron? We get great blue herons up here, and they swoop low overhead the back yard, with a loud raucous cry and looking like pterodactyls. We also get hummingbirds and try to have some red flowers around for them.
“This Attorney Insists Food Shortages, Looting and Economic Collapse Are Coming to America”
http://www.charismanews.com/opinion/57221-this-attorney-insists-food-shortages-looting-and-economic-collapse-are-coming-to-america
Well, won’t that be special!
Hat tip to:
http://www.thesurvivalistblog.net/prep-week-26-12/
Saw something beautiful in the ditch yesterday, gray, long neck, long legs, black on the head. Very pretty seabird.
As OFD said, a blue heron. We get them here in Meyerland. They feed in the bayous. Once a number of young ones came and hung out at our pool in the back yard. We had some nesting in the trees across the street. Unfortunately, the tree limbs hung over the street to in front of our house. And the herons sat on those branches. And took a crap all over the street. When they let go, it was about a cup of white liquid with fish bones and crawfish shells mixed in. Hard to get off a car.
“That there is a SWAG, a scientific wild ass guess. There is a difference.”
Well in my scientist and engineer circles SWAG is a super wild ass guess. So, there is another difference for you. As the saying goes, “different strokes…”.
Huh. Been “scientific” all my engineering life. My fellow engineers and I started using it in the 1980s when I worked at TU Electric in Texas. Or maybe when I worked at Pona Engineers or ChemShare Corporation in the 70s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_wild-ass_guess
“Scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG), is American slang meaning a rough estimate made by an expert in the field, based on experience and intuition. It is similar to the slang word guesstimate, a portmanteau of guess and estimate.”
I would definitely call RBT an expert in prepping and survival mechanisms.
It is on the intertubes, it must be true!
Wow, after a nice sunny day, the skies just opened up. .57 inch in the last 7 minutes. and still coming down.
Dadgumit, the pool was up to 82 F. The rain made it drop back down to 79 F. I don’t like the pool under 87 F as I freeze and just want to sit in the hot tub.
“Well, won’t that be special!”
Indeed. We may not get to the point that Venezuela is at, except in some major urban areas, when regional “just-in-time” food distribution systems halt and/or collapse entirely. But it’s worth noting that our infrastructure is far more dependent on modern electric power and networks and transportation systems than it was during our Great Depression. Three days and all the store shelves are empty.
“When they let go, it was about a cup of white liquid with fish bones and crawfish shells mixed in. Hard to get off a car.”
Yikes. It’s a PITA here just to get the regular normal load of bird poop off our cars, esp. after it’s had a while to dry real good in the sun. I try to park them out from under the trees and the bastards do us anyway, probably pissed off about our cats.
“I would definitely call RBT an expert in prepping and survival mechanisms.”
Yup.
“I don’t like the pool under 87 F as I freeze and just want to sit in the hot tub.”
I reckon you won’t be joining next winter’s “Penguin Plunge” up here, or the L-Street Brownies on their annual dip in Boston Hahbuh on New Year’s Day…
Rainfall for today ended up just under 1.5 inches.
I’ve had good luck with chiropractors in the past. My body responds well to it, but it isn’t a miracle. By the time you get in, all your muscles are pulling stuff all over the place and the swelling is too. Takes a bit to get all that backed off.
Gonna eat some pain pills and go to bed now. Just finished the last round of icing.
It’s getting harder and harder for the PTB to convince people that it’s all still fine… people have access to other news sources if they care to look. And it’s clearly NOT FINE. There are going to be a lot of pissed off and scared people shouting ‘why didn’t you tell us’ and coming for prepper blood. Doesn’t matter that we’ve BEEN telling them. Certainly not a secret society, just search for ‘prepper’ on youtube.
off to bed,
nick
As OFD said, a blue heron. We get them here in Meyerland. They feed in the bayous.
And they feed in my two ponds (1/2 acre and 1 acre) at the office property. I love watching them stalk around the place from my office windows.
I also had my two whistling ducks return last week. They raised 11 out of 13 to maturity last year on my ponds, I am hoping for another bumper crop this year.
“I don’t like the pool under 87 F as I freeze and just want to sit in the hot tub.”
I reckon you won’t be joining next winter’s “Penguin Plunge” up here, or the L-Street Brownies on their annual dip in Boston Hahbuh on New Year’s Day…
No freaking way. I have been on blood thinners for the last four years now since my last hospitalization. I freeze to death even though I have plenty of insulation. The wife and I are backwards now as she is always hot.
Three days and all the store shelves are empty.
Around here it only takes 12 hours. Our local Riverpark HEB gets about 20 to 30 five foot tall pallets of food and stuff DAILY. There are about a dozen guys restocking it from 8 pm to 3 am or so. I know this as I usually shop about 10 pm on Sundays and Wednesdays.
I dunno. He’s only about 111111(base 2) years old. Wait until he’s 111111(base 10) years old and we can call him an expert in survival.
There’s a reason they’re called shitepokes.
Also, yuck. OFD’s right, cleaning the usual tablespoon of crap from a car is bad enough.
Apparently, Hillary is the most honest candidate in 2016…
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/fact-checkers-confirm-hillary-clinton-is-more-honest-than-any-of-her-2016-opponents/24196/
Oh, come on, everyone knows Bernie is the most honest candidate for 2016. The most honest and the most stupid. He actually thinks Socialism works. Hillary doesn’t care whether her ideas work or not, she only cares about being elected.
He actually thinks Socialism works.
Socialism works just fine. Until you run out of other peoples money.
Near as I can tell, our dear leaders are driving us hard to become like Venezuela-with-sharia.
Interesting question I saw yesterday somewhere: musloid trash are killing and maiming our soldiers and marines overseas, and then our own government decides to move, say, a hundred of them, to the next small town over for “resettlement” as “refugees.” How are we supposed to react to that? Considering that their slave-cult political ideology requires them to try and either subdue or kill US?
Article linked from WRSA
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/05/21/armed-with-guns-and-constitutions-the-patriot-movement-sees-america-under-threat/
Long, but an easy read.
READ IT. study it. See the subtle and not so subtle manipulation going on. See the guilt by association. See the straw man arguments. See the insinuation, hearsay, and outright lies. See the conflation of ideas and people. Look at the trigger (dogwhistle) words, and the ‘scare quotes.’ Look for the demonization. Note the soothing and faux balanced tone. The article is well written, slides right into your mind, and is an incredibly piece of distortion and lies.
This is what anyone in the III or even garden variety preppers are up against. The “OMG they have 30 days of supplies on hand, what are they planning???!!!?!?!?!” mentality. The assertion that belief in freedom and limited government is ” [their] bizarre and discredited interpretation of the U.S. Constitution.” <- in a handy quote from a .gov drone.
It's battle space preparation. It's marginalization. It's one or two steps to "those paranoid preppers bought up all the food and they're hoarding it for themselves- that's why your kids are hungry!"
They're getting subtler too. They kept themselves from using 'arsenal' to describe more than two guns.
WRSA point was to avoid talking to the media. I think they missed the bigger chance to deconstruct this article as the very dangerous piece of propaganda that it is.
nick
I saw that article, too; it’s standard-issue lefty agitprop, and most of us have seen it enough by now to automatically deconstruct it immediately. I couldn’t even finish it; got through the first few paras and gave it up in disgust. And they’re basically preaching to their own choir among the coastal and urban “elites” anyway.
It’s gonna be Us Against Them when the time comes. Yes, they currently have control of the military and police, but that can change very quickly, as in when they’re not being paid, and/or when there are conflicting loyalties.
Otherwise their point is good; avoid gassing about anything with the media liars and rumpswabs; they’re most emphatically NOT on our side.
OFD wrote:
” How are we supposed to react to that?”
Your assignment, should you choose to accept it…