08:58 – The estimated taxes are in the mail. Barbara is heading for the gym and then running by the supermarket to pick up some groceries. I think we’ll make another batch of oatmeal cookies. More science kit stuff for us today.
We finished watching both seasons of Peaky Blinders on Netflix streaming last night. It’s a decent series, but the music is hideous. Barbara called it grunge rock. I’m not sure that’s what it is, but whatever it is it’s bad. And totally inappropriate for a series set in 1920 Birmingham, UK. We started watching the Brit cop comedy Vexed. It’s decent, but there are only a total of nine episodes. That’s one thing I’ll give the Brits. When they make a series, they make more episodes until they run out of ideas. Then they stop making it. I wish US producers did the same.
Our frigid weather is now supposed to occur Monday rather than Sunday. I don’t think they really know what’s going to happen.
IMHO, with all of our technology weather forecasting is no better than it was 50 years ago, worse actually. The so called Meteorologist are letting the computers do all the forecasting (a prime example of GIGO). Give me a good old weather balloon with a complete data package any day. Sure we can “see” the weather with the radar and the satellites but the predictions of where something is going is at best a WAG and usually a SWAG. They seem to pay no attention to High and Low Pressure Systems, Fronts, or the affect of terrain, clouds, human habitation, and prevailing winds.
Anyone else notice that the DOW is down 400, below 16,000 and oil is $30bbl?
Holy crap.
nick
Dramatic changes in oil prices up or down destabilize markets and countries. Given the China bubble it may be a trigger for larger financial disruption leading possibly to armed conflict. With that cheerful thought in mind I have been building Get-Home-Bags for my two vehicles. Did an inventory of needs and placed an order with Amazon today for the few things I didn’t have on hand. We already have Bug-Out-Trunks, big waterproof, wheeled, plastic containers that slip into our SUVs. If we have to bug-out we will do it in style. But as we both are getting older and my wife’s arthritis is limiting her hand range of motion, bugging out to our sons position is the best option. I was a survivalist as a young man in the 70’s back when everyone expected a nuclear exchange any day. Studied Foxfire, read Mother Earth, examined solar and alternative building techniques, even added a propane carb to my 1968 Ford F-150. The exact nature of the threat may change decade on decade but I was a Boy Scout and try to always be prepared.
And, IMHO, the DOW will be below 15000 before the year is out with like record drops in all indexes. I also predict $20bbl oil.
My family has been out of the markets since before the crash of 2008. I laugh at the so-called “financial advisors” from the companies that administer my Wife’s and Kids’ savings plan at their work. They go on and on about how not to worry about a down market and then they look at what I have recommended for them (certain bonds, cash, stable value instruments). They shut up real quick and sheepishly admit that “gee, you are outperforming anything we recommend”, but then they add “you really should diversify” to which they respond “to what, I’ll take my gains thank you”.
Sovereign Man has another good post today:
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/two-revolutionary-technologies-that-are-dismantling-the-financial-system-18557/
“…both seasons of Peaky Blinders on Netflix streaming last night. It’s a decent series, but the music is hideous. Barbara called it grunge rock. I’m not sure that’s what it is, but whatever it is it’s bad.”
I watched it last year and liked it, except, as you say, for the totally inappropriate music, when they had a wealth of period music they could have used. Idiots.
I get the Sovereign Man emails and saw that piece earlier today; he’s right about most stuff he talks about but his solutions are out of reach for most of us; we simply don’t already have a few hundred thou to invest overseas or to move overseas with and start a new biz, and it would be quite a cultural uprooting for us. Unless we win the lottery or I start really pulling in the dough somehow, we’ll have to make do with what we have here. If things get so bad that we’re looking at 80% mass die-off, we’ll probably be among them, sooner or later. We’re in our sixties and not in spring-chicken shape anymore, and for a catastrophe of that scale, you’d really have to be, and then some.
The Mighty Trump ™ will save us all!
Trump 2016! “A chicken in every pot, two in Mr. OFD’s”
Walmart is closing 269 stores:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-pulls-plug-smallest-142130737.html#
“The move includes Wal-Mart’s largest-ever single culling in the United States, where the company is closing 154 stores. The other 115 stores are in Latin America, including 60 in Brazil.”
The internet disruption is marching forward.
Trump 2016! “A chicken in every pot, two in Mr. OFD’s”
Why does OFD get two?
‘IMHO, with all of our technology weather forecasting is no better than it was 50 years ago, worse actually.’
I always find it amazing that the Accuweather site has daily weather forecasts that project out over a month. What’s more crazy is that they will go into specifics. For example, the current forecast for February 18 is ‘Snow, ice late in the day.’
They seem pretty optimistic about their ability to predict the weather.
IMHO, with all of our technology weather forecasting is no better than it was 50 years ago, worse actually.
IMHO, it’s lots better. Better understanding of how fronts move, better data collection, more use of radar, etc.
Better models help, but it seems to be a pretty steep error curve. Right now is trivial. An hour out is trivial. A day out is pretty accurate. 2-3 days out is reasonably accurate. 5 days out is a crap shoot. And it gets worse. I like to look a week out and get an idea.
When they improve the model 10-fold, they gain miniscule improvements at 2-3 days out. And that took orders of magnitude improvements over 50 years ago.
Mr. Ech is right – it is vastly improved, but it only nets us a day or so of better predictions.
“Why does OFD get two?”
‘Cause I’m a big ol’ boy and it takes two to get enough meat off ’em.
“The internet disruption is marching forward.”
I’m still bemused by the fact that most derps don’t seem to realize that it all runs on electricity, generated by fossil energy, usually. Once the juice cuts out, that’s it. No juice, no net. Whatever the heck are peeps gonna DO???
Reminds me to get more batteries and look into smaller solar panels, etc.; we’d be back to circa 1900, at best, in a northern temperate zone. I’m still concerned about what to do in case of no firewood or oil deliveries, though.
In regard to weather; we gotta just look out our window and/or step outside; we’re in a microclimate here that gets different stuff than just up the road a mile or just a few miles north or south. I’ve actually seen it raining or snowing in the front of the house and nothing at all in the back. And vice-versa.
Kill your television and don’t go to shitty movies:
http://takimag.com/article/propaganda_pop_culture_from_cuckmercials_to_star_wars_gavin_mcinnes/print#axzz3xLov6cWk
Unless you enjoy being portrayed as a rayciss imbecile, etc.
Regarding weather, the only thing that has improved is TOO MUCH data entered into the computers. It really takes a human brain to adequately process the data and IMHO less data is more.
FWIW the Old Farmers Almanac folks do a better job of long term weather forecasting.
I used to keep a scorecard of sorts, reflecting what the forecast was and what actually occurred. The next day forecast was about 35% correct, further out went down rapidly. Yes, in your area your results will vary. There are about 6 micro-climates in my two county area and the weather can vary drastically from micro-climate to micro-climate.
Stocks are crashing, gas is dropping, Walfarts are closing…what should I do? Jump for joy or drive off the Hoover Dam bypass?
Please advise…quickly, I’m low on gas.
Kill your television and don’t go to shitty movies:
I still can’t get over Marvel making Nick Fury Afrikan Murkan (Sammy “MoFo Jackson of all peeps). A classic comic book from my sub teen years. Remember “Nick Fury and his Howling Commandos” depicting their exploits during WWII, then on to SHIELD? I cry every time I see MoFo as Nick.
‘Cause I’m a big ol’ boy and it takes two to get enough meat off ’em.
Big Foot you is bro.
@MrAtoz; Bigfoot Sasquatch MIGHT be flying out to Lost Wages in the not-too-distant few-chah w/Mrs. OFD; she has a pending gig there and wants me to meet a guy she knows who’s also ex-mil and ex-cop and has pulled a scad of peeps from jumping off the GG Bridge, evidently; he wants to meet me.
I gather he didn’t actually PULL them off; he talked them out of it. They both think that I’d be good at that sorta thang, seeing as how I interact with the vets already in that role quite a bit, and also know the cop stuff. We had to kinda rescue one of our guys yesterday who was having a real tough time, forgot his hearing aids, didn’t know if he had enough gas to get home, weeping, etc.; lives home alone and struggles with that and finances; his idea of human company is the waitresses being nice to him at the local Applebee’s and Long Branch chow halls. He doesn’t wanna be a burden to his sons, one of whom lives over by lovely Bangor, Maine, and the other one up in Fairbanks, Alaska. Has heart troubles and other ailments, etc. We straightened his sorry ass out, of course.
So we’ll see. Maybe I’ll run into ya out there and we can go for chopper rides over the Strip and strafe the friggin’ dumbass touristas…
Please advise…quickly, I’m low on gas.
When gasoline hits $1.00, fill up all the buckets that you can find. Because you won’t see it this low again. Until next time.
Not a bad actor, but fuck him for his off-screen self. Ditto Jennifer Lawrence and, well, probably 90% of actors. Unfortunately, I can’t really cut back on my watching as I don’t watch enough to meaningfully cut back.
Because of all the previously-acknowledged pot.
“…I can’t really cut back on my watching as I don’t watch enough to meaningfully cut back.”
Ditto. Right now I’ve just finished the entire seasons’ runs of “The Wire,” and am on the second season of “The Blacklist.” I have a ton of other stuff downloaded or on DVD that I haven’t had the time to look at yet; some of it’s been sitting here for several years.
“When gasoline hits $1.00, fill up all the buckets that you can find.”
Roger that; for this place I’ll probably use five-gallon cans with decent friggin’ spouts but will have to figure not only the best site to store them but also what to do about “stabilizing” the fuel; is that a done thing? I’m just a dumbass noob on that stuff.
Speaking of pots and chicken, I’m having, you’re not gonna believe this, but I already had it out on the counter, chicken-pot-pie tonight. With a side of my homemade orange-cranberry chutney.
Turkey pot pie is a common meal here. I’ll roast a turkey and we’ll eat what we want that night, then the leftovers become a pot pie and usually turkey a la king.
Calling it a pot pie doesn’t quite convey the majesty of the beast. I cook it in the turkey roaster with normally 8-10 cups of diced dark meat, 6-12 potatoes depending on size, a couple onions, pounds of vegetables (generally selected by the criterion of “clean out the refrigerator”), then butter and milk and seasonings to finish ‘er up. Biscuit dough scattered by small bits to make a thick topping, and pie crust on the bottom if I’m not too lazy. (The girls much prefer having the pie crust but I’m a lazyass and I usually cook when I’m alone in the house so I can’t just tell them to do it if they want it.) I’ll usually prepare a couple of 6″ pyrex bowls for a woman at work who’s going through some hard times, but all the rest goes down the gullets of the girls and me.
The turkey a la king is more of a chowder than a proper a la king. The cream “soup” part is normal, but I put in much more meat than normal, then round it out with a pound or two of frozen vegetables. It can be eaten over rice or toast points just fine, but can just as well be eaten like a thick soup.
Dang it, now I’m all hungry.
Yeah, I also loves me some turkey pot pie; I’ll swing on down next time you cook it up. Another pot pie I love that Table Talk or somebody used to make in my distant childhood is tuna pot pie and I’ll do that up myself here. Solid albacore, usually two or three of the big cans; two cans of cream-of-shrimp soup or maybe sub one of those for a can of cream-of-celery; diced spuds and carrots; some frozen peas; salt and pepper and Frank’s Hot Sauce and both top and bottom crusts. Using lard in them crusts, too. I’m a Julia Child fanboy from WAY back; load it up!
Now that you mention it; that other guy I was talking about at the vets group yesterday goes out to them chain restaurants for some human company and probably blows too much money that way; another vet said hey, get some steak and potatoes going at home and call yer sons and sit there and talk to them instead and save some dough and feel better about shit. I’ll catch up to him out in the parking lot next time and hand him a couple of them pyrex bowls of stuff, great idea. Heat it up and call yer boyz, dude; you supported them and now they are willing to support you and have said so accordingly, get on it, bro.
Our remaining ex-jarhead had a bit of good nooz finally; one son is outta prison now and has a carpentry job in Kentucky and the other one is out and in a halfway house. Plus jarhead is gonna get with three of his ex-jarhead nephews this summer, two of them also combat vets, and rent a cabin in wilderness Georgia and hang out and fish and take a load off. If anyone deserves it, it’s this poor bastard. Oh shit–I just a flash vision thing of that movie, “Deliverance.”
Regarding weather prediction, when the first atomic bomb was being prepared for testing in New Mexico in 1945 they employed a top draw meteorologist to advise on suitable dates, as well as give near term advice. Even weeks before the test the meteorologist had firm opinions on which days would be suitable.
I would have thought one day in July was as good as another.
they employed a top draw meteorologist
At least it was not one of the idiots we have on TV today.
I would have thought one day in July was as good as another.
Probably on a cost+ contract with a whole lot of money involved. Takes a lot of “skill” (billable hours) to pick a day in July.