Month: July 2015

Tuesday, 21 July 2015

07:53 – One of the first things I did when I was setting up my Kindle Fire HD last November was install Adblock Plus, despite the large number of one-star reviews. Many of those one-star comments said pretty much the same thing: AdBlock Plus on a desktop/notebook system was great, but on Android it was crap. They were right. After eight months of suffering frequent proxy server failures, I finally decided just to put up with the ads, so I uninstalled AdBlock Plus. It can’t be fixed, and the fault lies with Google rather than AdBlock Plus.

So now I’m seeing ads, and I’m making a point of clicking on lots of them, just to cost the advertisers money for no return. Not only will I never buy anything from one of those ads, but I’m keeping a mental list of which companies are placing those ads so I’ll remember not to buy from them under any circumstances.

More work on science kits today.


Read the comments: 23 Comments

Monday, 20 July 2015

07:54 – The lead article on the front page of the paper this morning was about the rise of the “Nones”, even in the Bible Belt. In North Carolina, Nones were about 12% of the population in 2007. They’re now 20%, up by about two-thirds. In South Carolina over the same period, the percentage has nearly doubled, from 10% to 19%. And that’s in the Bible Belt. Elsewhere, the percentages and growth rates are even more pronounced. Nationwide, Nones are now the second largest group, only slightly behind Evangelicals, and far ahead of traditionally-black churches (AME, etc.), Roman Catholics, and mainstream Christian (Presbyterian, Methodist, etc.). And the Nones are growing fast, particularly among younger people, while the other affiliations continue to shrink as older churchgoers die off.

The article proposes various explanations, but I think the reason is simple. Few people have ever actually believed this religious stuff, but they went to church anyway because of social pressure and as a way of socializing with friends and neighbors. Nowadays, the social pressure to attend church has pretty much disappeared, while there are much better ways to socialize.

And the trend doesn’t just manifest among lay people, either. Most priests, ministers, pastors, and other church leaders are now non-believers. I remember reading an article from an official evangelical church publication a few years ago that said roughly 70% of Evangelical pastors were non-believers, but continued in their jobs because it was the only way they had to earn a living. They’re frauds, in other words, standing up in the pulpit every Sunday to preach about stuff they don’t believe. That’s true even among the elite. For example, I’ve met a lot of SJ priests over the years, and I’m pretty sure every one of them was atheist. It wouldn’t surprise me if the same is true of the pope. It’s no wonder that people have stopped going to church if even their pastors don’t believe the stuff they’re spouting.

Barbara and I finished final assembly on another batch of biology kits yesterday. Today, I get started on another three dozen chemistry kits.


12:09 – Oh, well. The house we were about to put in an offer for turns out to be a non-starter. No fiber, and Century Link, the cable provider, says his records show that even standard Internet is not offered there, let alone high speed. My guess is the high-speed Internet service mentioned by the owners is of the two-tin-cans-and-a-string variety, probably DSL. The selling agent told our agent that they had “3 MB” Internet service. My guess is he was confusing bits and bytes. So I told our agent to scratch that one and keep looking.

Read the comments: 51 Comments

Sunday, 19 July 2015

09:37 – Thunderstorms last night. We had about 2.25″ (5.7 cm) of rain over a couple of hours. Colin was terrified. There’s nothing quite like having a terrified 70-pound dog in your lap, squirming around and begging you to make it stop.

Whether or not we end up getting the house we’re putting in an offer on, I want to plan basement storage for whatever house we end up in. My first thought was just to buy more of the modular steel shelving units we already have, but I think instead I’m going to build islands of custom shelving from 2×8 foot pieces or 4×8 foot sheets of half-inch plywood on 2×4″ framing, with two or three 2X4 cross-braces. That way, in a pinch, the storage shelves could easily be repurposed into bunk beds. Not that I expect to be putting up a platoon, but if things really go downhill it’s possible that we’d be hosting family and friends as long-term guests, so the more flexibility the better.


Read the comments: 37 Comments

Saturday, 18 July 2015

07:22 – We’re still hard at work on building science kit inventory. Sales are still slowish, at around one kit per calendar day, but that’s starting to pick up as we get later into July. In August and into September, we’ll start having days when we’ll be processing orders for anything from five or eight kits a day to two or three dozen a day, which is why we’re building finished-goods stock now. Some days in August, we won’t have time to do anything except ship kits.

Part of my prepping is researching relocation issues. One of the things that I looked at yesterday was shooting ranges in the Jefferson area. I found one, the Ashe County Wildlife Club. It sounded great, until I looked at the membership application. One of the required fields in the form was my NRA membership number. I’ve never been an NRA member, because I consider the NRA to be far too soft on gun-control issues. They accept, tacitly and sometimes explicitly, such outrages as the 1934 National Firearms Act (NFA), the Gun Control Act of 1968, and the restrictions on concealed weapons in the North Carolina Constitution and those of other states. They’re even okay with prohibiting convicted criminals from possessing firearms, which is a gaping hole that the government can easily use to restrict the right of all citizens to keep and bear arms.

But I could live with that if I had to. I’d bite my tongue and join the NRA, or perhaps Barbara could join and I could shoot as her guest. What really annoyed me was their requirements for members. Stuff like helping to maintain the property is fine and reasonable. But they also want me to pledge to “promote and support” “The Pledge of Allegiance and open, Public Prayer as they relate to our Club Meetings and Events.” Seriously? I have big-time problems with that. I’ll happily pledge allegiance to the United States Constitution and the Bill of Rights, both as written, but not to their flag and certainly not to the delusion that the United States are “one nation, under god”. That’s the equivalent of asking an observant Jew to eat pork as a condition of membership.

Fortunately, the Ashe County ham radio club has no such policies, and is quite active in ARES and similar emergency radio service groups. I suspect a lot of the folks in the ham radio club are also involved with emergency management at the county and local level, and would be people I want to get to know anyway.

I really want to do a complete inventory of our stored food, but I just don’t have time right now. My guess is that it’ll have to wait until we relocate. Putting all this stuff back on shelves in our new home will be a convenient time to count everything. Someone suggested bar-coding, but that’s overkill even for me.

I’ve been reading a lot of post-apocalyptic fiction lately, from probably 40 or 50 new-to-me authors. One lesson I’ve learned is that most of them are junk–written by author wannabes who don’t have even basic grammatical skills. Seriously, many of them need to repeat elementary school English. And even those who do write with at least basic competence are usually hopeless when it comes to details like plot, dialog, and so on. Some months ago I read One Second After and criticized the author for his lack of skill. Since then, I’ve found that his skills are, while still pathetic, head and shoulders above those of most PA novelists.

Another lesson I’ve learned. It used to be that when I read the first of a series and liked it, I’d go grab the rest of the series all at once. No more. A high percentage of these PA authors who manage to do a reasonably good job on their first books–and this is incredible to me–actually go downhill on later books. For example, the first book in the 299 Days series was just okay, but showed promise. I assumed the author would get better in his second and subsequent books. Not even close. They get worse, and the more he writes the worse he gets. So now, I read the first book and grab the second if the first is passable. Literally half a dozen or more times already I’ve found the the second book is worse than the first.

None of these guys even approach the good PA novels from the 80’s and earlier, but there are still a few who show some promise, notably Steve Konkoly, Angery American, and (so far; I’m 50% in to his first book) Thomas Sherry. Like almost all of their competitors, these guys still get hung up on equipment, going into great detail. Instead of saying, “He picked up his rifle,” they’ll go on for paragraphs (or even pages, literally) filled with details about the make and model, the brand, capacity, and construction material of the magazine, the type of red-dot sight installed, the type of ammunition including bullet weight, and on and on. Like good science, good writing should be parsimonious. These guys are anything but.


16:24 – We just got back from West Jefferson. We found a house that suits both of us and told our agent to put in an offer for it. We’re offering about 75% of the asking price, but the asking price is far above market, so our offer is reasonable.

The house is smaller than our current house, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with just under 1,900 square feet of living space on one floor. There’s also a basement of the same size that’s fully below grade. Barbara says that’s mine, and it provides plenty of room for the business, long-term food storage, and other stuff. The stairs to the basement are the widest I’ve ever seen in a residence. They must be five feet wide. The house sits on about 1.2 reasonably flat acres with two outbuildings.

The only downside is that it has an oil-heated boiler with hot water heat and no air conditioning, but there’s room in the basement if we want to install duct work for a heat pump. Interestingly, there’s what appears to be a cut-over switch for a generator, although there’s no pad. There are also hundreds of empty, clean canning jars on shelves in the basement. There’s also a large ducted firebox in the basement that has one duct running to either end of the house to provide heat through floor grills. It looks to me as if the former residents believed in being prepared for bad winter weather.

The house is actually pretty close to downtown West Jefferson, but it’s in the midst of agricultural land. In fact, the back property line abuts an active farm that has cows grazing. I wonder if they moo in the morning like roosters crow.

Read the comments: 41 Comments

Friday, 17 July 2015

07:42 – I’ve been working on science kit stuff all week, so there hasn’t been much time left for prepping activities. I did get email yesterday from a guy who wants to remain anonymous, so I’ll just call him Bill.

I guess I’m in the wannabe prepper category you mentioned in one of your comments today. Either that, or I’m just really slow at getting started. I’ve bought Fernando Aguire’s Surviving The Economic Collapse. I bought
some oxygen absorbers from Amazon, and collected 24 two liter soda bottles. I even have a Sam’s Club Membership so I can buy stuff to store in the two liter bottles. I just haven’t bought anything to put in the two liter bottles. It’s taken over a month for me to do this little. In my defense, I will point out that real life keeps raising it’s ugly head and distracting me from prepping.

I have decided I’m going to start storing rice first rather than flour. My wife and I routinely cook with rice and use very little flour. I have started looking for recipes that use all purpose flour. It wasn’t clear from your list of iron rations whether you talking about all purpose or bread flour. I have assumed you meant all purpose flour. Julia Child’s French Bread recipe calls for all purpose flour and a video can be found on Youtube. The other common recipe for all purpose flour is egg noodles made from one cup of flour and one egg. Before I start stocking flour in bulk, I’m going to at least figure out how to make the tortillas in the recipe linked below.

http://www.tasteofhome.com/recipes/homemade-tortillas

To which I replied:

Real life always gets in the way.

Why not just stop by Costco/Sam’s/Walmart this afternoon and pick up some basic food? Keep it simple to start.

1. A few cases of bottled water. [Following added for this post. RBT] Rinse out those two dozen 2-liter bottles with dilute bleach and fill them with tap water. You can never have too much safe water.

2. A 50-pound bag of white rice, for probably $17. Don’t even worry about transferring it to other containers for now. It’ll keep just fine for at least a couple years in the original bag.

3. Two dozen cans of assorted canned soups. You can use these with the rice to make a simple but tasty meal.

4. A case or two of canned meats (chicken, tuna, salmon, Spam, etc.)

5. A case or two of canned fruit, jars of applesauce, etc.

6. A case or two of canned vegetables, whatever you like.

7. A dozen jars of spaghetti sauce and a dozen packages of pasta.

8. A large bottle of olive oil.

9. A couple large jars of peanut butter and a couple large boxes of Ritz crackers.

10. Big jars of onion powder/flakes, garlic powder/granules, cinnamon, and any other spices you like.

All of this stuff, including the crackers, keeps for at least a year in the original packages.

As to the flour, there’s really not that much difference between types of white flour, other than varying protein levels (gluten). You can substitute them pretty freely. For example, if you make bread with all-purpose flour, the texture of the bread won’t be as good as it’d be if you used bread flour, but it will work just fine.

To which he replied:

That is an excellent idea. You ask why not do it this afternoon? One of the instances of real life happening is three days in the last two weeks when we got 4+ inches of rain. As soon as we get the basement sorted out, I will get a sturdy shelving unit and stuff from your list from Sam’s Club.

And, surprise, I heard from Jen’s husband for the first time. I’ll call him Ben. Ben is not as prepping-oriented as Jen, but he says he’s coming around to her view of things, and has no real objection to most of the actions she’s taking and the stuff she’s buying. Like Barbara, he’s more concerned about the amount of space it takes and the clutter than the cost, and he asks a reasonable question: “When have we done enough to declare that our preparation is complete?”

Just about any prepping website will tell you that you’re never done, that prepping is a journey rather than a destination. And that’s fine as far as it goes. But Ben’s question is still valid with regard to purchases. Is a ton of food each enough for them? Two tons? Ten? When does it stop?

My attitude is that you can indeed reach a level at which you can consider your acquisition of food and other supplies complete, at which point you can consider that your supplies have reached steady-state, where you buy only enough stuff to replace what you’ve used, whether food, ammunition, or other classes of supplies. For me, that level is a three-year supply. Some people are comfortable with just a year’s worth, and I have no argument with that. Others keep a five or ten year supply on hand, and I have no argument with that, either. What should never stop is your acquisition of additional knowledge and skills.

So, what precisely did you do to prepare this week? Tell me about it in the comments.


09:07 – Everything appears to be working normally, with a few minor exception like the placement of bullet points midway down the paragraph rather than on the first line. The other weird thing is that followed links seem to remain the same color as unfollowed ones, which makes it hard for me to keep track of the last comment I read.

Otherwise, I’m happy with this theme. I showed Barbara the new theme when she was on her way out this morning, and asked if she wanted me to install it on her site. She said to go ahead and do it, but I think I’ll wait a day or two to let any problems show up before I chance breaking her site.

Read the comments: 56 Comments

Thursday, 16 July 2015

09:24 – Amazon’s big sale seems to have sputtered. From what I saw yesterday during several visits to the site, I think “epic fail” is a reasonable description. On the other hand, Walmart’s supposed big sale didn’t seem like much either. The only thing I noticed is that they’ve reduced the required order amount for free shipping from $50 to $35. This supposed duel of the titans turned out to be a fizzle.

Not that it really matters. Between Amazon and Walmart we can at reasonable prices get pretty much everything we need other than fresh foods without even leaving the house. I got email the other day from a prepper who said that, other than firearms, he’d managed to buy everything on-line that he needed to equip his family for year and, other than a trip to the LDS Home Storage Center to haul home literally a ton of dry staples in #10 cans and Mylar pouches, about 95% of that came from just Amazon and Walmart. And he could actually have ordered all the LDS HSC stuff on-line as well, albeit at much higher prices to cover shipping.

I’m still building science kits, which’ll be the story of my life until September or October. Just finding enough out-of-the-way places to stack the finished kits awaiting shipping is non-trivial.

The situation in Greece doesn’t bear talking about. The Greek government voted yesterday to give in completely to the Troika, which bought them nothing other than the EU agreeing to open talks about maybe funding another bail-out. The cynicism on both sides is incredible. The Greeks have agreed to everything the EU is demanding, but as usual the Greeks have absolutely no intention of complying. Promise them anything, and then just do what you want. The EU, on the other hand, has no intention of funding yet another large scale bailout. All the EU wants to do is maintain the figleaf that the Greeks are solvent and will repay their debts, neither of which is true. The one inexplicable thing in all this mess is why the Greeks seem so determined to remain in the euro, when it should be obvious to anyone that the only sensible thing to do is leave the euro, default on all of their debts, and return to the drachma.


10:36 – I think the main reason the Greeks haven’t already explicitly defaulted on all of their debts and returned to the drachma is simple fear of the unknown. Oh, I’m sure that wanting the rest of Europe to continue subsidizing their profligacy plays a part, but it must be obvious to anyone that those days are over. Europe is no longer willing to prop up the Greeks as they continue to consume much more than they produce. At this point, simple fear of the unknown must be the major factor.

Being a Viking-American, I forget that many people, perhaps most, are afraid of the unknown. That manifests in many ways, from the trivial–like refusing to try a new food because you might not like it–to the profound, such as refusing to prepare for emergencies because it’s more pleasant just to not think about the possibility. I don’t want to think about it, either, but not thinking about it doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen. And if (when) it happens, I’d rather have thought about it beforehand and taken what steps I can to minimize its impact on Barbara and me, our family, and our friends.

Read the comments: 80 Comments

Wednesday, 15 July 2015

08:55 – Amazon is having its big sale today. I just took a quick look and didn’t see anything I wanted that was on sale.

Like almost everyone, I was aware of the San Andreas fault and its potential to produce a devastating earthquake. I also knew about the New Madrid fault. What I didn’t know about was the Cascadia fault, which seismologists believe is likely to produce a truly devastating quake and tsunami in the relatively near future.

‘Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”’

Seismologists estimate the probability of an 8.0 to 8.6 Cascadia earthquake occurring within 50 years as about 0.33 and a huge one (8.7 to 9.2) as about 0.1. Of course, that means it may be happening as I write this, or it may not happen for another thousand years or more. But a 0.33 probability of even an 8.0 quake occurring within the next 50 years should be cause for great concern. Even one on the low end of that range would kill tens of thousands of people. A 9.2 quake could easily kill millions, both directly and from the follow-on effects.

“On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years.”

If I were on the Pacific coast, I’d certainly make relocation a high priority, and potential earthquakes are only part of the reason. Interestingly, if I were in that situation, the North Carolina mountains would be high on my list of potential relocation sites, not far behind the Montana/Alberta border area.


Read the comments: 81 Comments

Tuesday, 14 July 2015

08:53 – I wrote Sunday,

“As far as I can see, the only way out of this for Greece, if there is any way out, is for the EU to abolish government at all levels in Greece and appoint a receiver to oversee the bankruptcy of Greece and the auctioning off of Greek assets to pay off the creditors. Greece will have to become an EU colony for the foreseeable future, ceding all local control.”

but I didn’t actually expect them to do it. I underestimated just how much the Germans and the rest of the Northern Tier distrust Greece, because that’s essentially what they’ve gotten Tsipras to agree to. Whether or not the Greek legislators vote tomorrow to accept those humiliating terms is still very much up in the air. And, even if they do, it’s extremely unlikely that the Northern Tier will agree to fund yet another “bail out” for Greece, knowing that Greece will never repay the earlier bail outs, let alone the one under discussion. Payback, as they say, is a bitch.

My next task is to build another 60 biology kits and chemistry kits, which I’ll be working on over the next few days. With what we already have on hand, those should be enough to carry us through July and into August. Once I get those built, we’ll go back to making up solutions, labeling and filling bottles, and making up subassemblies for yet another batch of kits.

Barbara’s TV remote stopped working a week or so ago. When I popped the lid of the battery compartment, I found that the two AAA alkalines had leaked. At the time, I thought nothing about it. I just cleaned out the compartment, put a fresh pair of alkalines in, and gave it back to her. The other night, it stopped working again. When I opened it, the new cells had leaked. So this time I rinsed it out thoroughly under running tap water and put it aside to dry completely. This morning, I used a hair dryer for a couple of minutes to make sure the interior was dry, and again replaced the two AAA alkalines from a new pack of them. It works. We’ll see if it keeps working or the cells leak again.

Which has gotten me thinking about replacing all of our AA and AAA alkalines with low self-discharge (LSD) NiMH cells. We’ll use up our remaining stock of alkalines, which is around 100 of the AAA’s and maybe 40 of the AA’s, and then shift over to the rechargeables. For now, I’m going to pull the alkalines from our long-term storage stuff–flashlights, radios, etc.–and put the devices and a couple sets of alkalines with taped terminals in plastic bags.

We have a few devices that use C or D alkalines, mostly flashlights and lanterns, and those are a problem to convert to NiMH. C and D cells make up a tiny percentage of sales. AA and AAA combined are literally something like 97% of sales. So C or D NiMH cells are pretty hard to find, even on-line. When you can find them, they fall into one of three categories: ones made by name-brand alkaline companies like Duracell, Energizer and other mass-market suppliers, cheap Chinese ones that I wouldn’t trust, and the big name-brand NiMH cells like MaHa and Powerex. The Duracell/Energizer class ones are crap. They don’t want to cannibalize their alkaline sales, so their NiMH models are generally pathetic, with capacities of maybe 2,500 mAH in D (versus 10,000 to 12,000 mAH for the good brands). Their only advantage is that they’re reasonably inexpensive, roughly four or fives times the $1.25 price of an alkaline. Many of the Chinese no-name D cells have reasonable rated capacities of 8,000 to 10,000 mAH, but that’s usually grossly exaggerated and these rechargeables tend to die fairly young. Then there are the good brands, which have high capacities and are quite reliable. The problem with them is the price, typically $30 or so each. And, to top it all off, probably half of the available C and D models use early generation technology and are not low self-discharge. So I think we’ll stick with alkalines for our C and D devices.


Read the comments: 43 Comments

Monday, 13 July 2015

09:17 – This guy gets it: On Second Thought, Stick to Your Guns He understands that US supporters of the 2nd Amendment are going to keep our guns. They’re not for hunting. They’re not for recreational shooting. They’re for the reason that the 2nd Amendment was written in the first place: to keep the government in line.

And here’s a story about a Customer service shocker. Having dealt with this company frequently for years, it’s not shocking to me. What’s shocking is that it’s not the norm. It used to be.

The headlines are shouting that the Greek crisis is over. Not even close. All that that Marathon 17-hour session accomplished was Greece agreeing to even more stringent terms ahead of any discussions about a further bailout, in exchange for the EU providing a trickle of additional funding. Chances are there won’t be any future bailout, because that would require unanimous approval by all of the EU nations. The probability of that happening is close to zero. Even if Germany could somehow be persuaded to agree, there’s still Finland, Netherlands, Slovenia, Slovakia, and all three Baltic states, all of which are very strongly opposed to “lending” any more of their money to Greece.


10:33 – Email from Jen. She and her husband have been discussing buying a cabin up at the lake, about an hour’s drive from their home, at least under normal conditions. Interestingly, Jen, who is the strongly pro-prepping member of that couple, is opposed, while her husband is in favor.

Jen argues that it’s too far away, too expensive, might be impossible to get to if things really turn bad, and is a distraction from things they should be doing at home. I told Jen that I agree with her. Their home is already reasonably remote from the underclass. They have infrastructure already in place there, and a supportive group of friends and neighbors. If they were near a large city, that’d be one thing. Barbara and I are relocating in part because we’re currently inside the Winston-Salem city limits, entirely too close to large numbers of underclass scum. Jen and her husband are already located in an excellent location, so it makes sense to me that they should focus their efforts (and money) on improving where they are rather than looking for somewhere else to go. I could be wrong, but events are unpredictable, and as Frederick the Great said, “he who defends everything, defends nothing.”


15:22 – As if we needed more evidence, the Greeks are not the only lying weasels in this mess. The eurocrats are a bunch of lying liars as well. EU demands Britain joins Greek rescue fund

The UK needs to withdraw from the EU immediately. The EFTA (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein), none of whom are EU members, has been encouraging the UK to withdraw from the EU and join them. That would make particular sense for the UK, which was one of the founding members of the EFTA. By doing so, the UK would get what it really wants–free trade with the EU–without any of the political or economic entanglements that are part of EU membership.

Read the comments: 66 Comments

Sunday, 12 July 2015

08:54 – Our cities are coming apart at the seams. “Police departments across the country that have spent years boasting about plummeting crime numbers are now scrambling to confront something many agencies have not seen in decades: more bloodshed.” And it’s not just the largest cities, either, nor is it just murder rates that are skyrocketing. Any town that has a significant underclass population is at risk. The progressives are doing their best to make it impossible for police to do their jobs, which should be and always was to protect decent people from the underclass leeches.

The eurocrats are making no progress on the Greek crisis, basically because none of the EU leaders believe the Greeks can be trusted. The Greeks have done nothing but lie. They lied their way into the EU originally, and they’ve done nothing since but make promises that they had no ability or intention to keep. The rest of the EU has finally come to realize that you can tell the Greeks are lying if their lips are moving. The Greeks make Joe Isuzu look honest.

As far as I can see, the only way out of this for Greece, if there is any way out, is for the EU to abolish government at all levels in Greece and appoint a receiver to oversee the bankruptcy of Greece and the auctioning off of Greek assets to pay off the creditors. Greece will have to become an EU colony for the foreseeable future, ceding all local control. Greece hasn’t had a functioning government in living memory and has no prospect of ever developing one on its own. It’s time to recognize that and bring in a non-Greek to get things back on a business-like footing.


Read the comments: 37 Comments
// ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- // end of file archive.php // -------------------------------------------------------------------------------