08:55 – Amazon is having its big sale today. I just took a quick look and didn’t see anything I wanted that was on sale.
Like almost everyone, I was aware of the San Andreas fault and its potential to produce a devastating earthquake. I also knew about the New Madrid fault. What I didn’t know about was the Cascadia fault, which seismologists believe is likely to produce a truly devastating quake and tsunami in the relatively near future.
Seismologists estimate the probability of an 8.0 to 8.6 Cascadia earthquake occurring within 50 years as about 0.33 and a huge one (8.7 to 9.2) as about 0.1. Of course, that means it may be happening as I write this, or it may not happen for another thousand years or more. But a 0.33 probability of even an 8.0 quake occurring within the next 50 years should be cause for great concern. Even one on the low end of that range would kill tens of thousands of people. A 9.2 quake could easily kill millions, both directly and from the follow-on effects.
“On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years.”
If I were on the Pacific coast, I’d certainly make relocation a high priority, and potential earthquakes are only part of the reason. Interestingly, if I were in that situation, the North Carolina mountains would be high on my list of potential relocation sites, not far behind the Montana/Alberta border area.