09:05 – I wasn’t aware of it until a couple days ago, but it seems that Google no longer indexes comments on WordPress blogs. Making matters worse, it also seems that the WordPress search feature itself doesn’t index comments. I looked for a WordPress plug-in that would add a comment search feature, but there’s nothing available that doesn’t require creating custom templates and other stuff that I have neither the skills nor the time to do. So, basically when you post a comment it’s ephemeral and there’s nothing I can do to fix that.
I follow commodities, particularly petroleum, casually. I’m no expert, but as Dylan said you don’t need to be a weatherman. Here’s a pretty good summary of the current state of petroleum: Oil slump may deepen as US shale fights Opec to a standstill
My guess is that we’ll see oil fall into the $20 to $25/bbl range and stay there long term. There’s a glut, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. As I’ve said, we’re floating on a sea of oil, and we’re just now learning how to get to the easily available stuff.
The geopolitical implications are profound. Here’s a graphic that sums things up nicely.
Note that, at close to 30 million bbl/bay, the US is now the world’s third largest producer, behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. Note also the operating costs. For the middle east region, they’re around $5 to $6/bbl (and fixed), while the US is about twice that, and falling fast. In the next year or two, US production costs are likely to fall as low or lower than Saudi Arabia.
But production costs are a tiny part of the whole for Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and other OPEC members, most of which depend largely or entirely on oil revenues to fund government operations, including social programs and military spending. Those countries need oil prices above $100/bbl to break even. US oil producers aren’t carrying all these extra burdens. They can run profitably with oil prices well under $40/bbl, and by some reports well under $30/bbl. That’s very bad news for Russia, Saudi Arabia, et alia. In fact, it’s bad news for pretty much every other oil producing country, including our allies Canada, Australia, and the UK, all of which are higher-cost producers.
The one bright spot for these countries, although not for US oil producers, is that US law still prohibits exporting petroleum.
More work on kit stuff today.
Well there are places in the US that have problems over low oil prices too. Here in Kern County California (Bakersfield) the layoffs in the oilfields continue to grow. Local government is taking big budget cuts as the tax revenue drops. Not that I’m against a reduction in government spending but as usual they’re telling us about the need for reduced services and higher taxes while the bloat of the bureaucrats continues.
Yep, how come it’s always “we gotta cut police teachers and firefighters!” and never about the other 30 pages of .local.gov at the beginning of the phone book?
I’ll believe it’s real when they cut funding for the Interagency Task Force on LGBTQ Anti-discrimination in The Arts and Media* or the Mayor’s Council on Latino, Black, Native American and other Underrepresented Minority Owned Businesses in the Film and Television Industry.*
nick
* Probably not real agencies.
The loss in oil industry jobs is much, much more than offset by the benefit of lower prices for everyone. Yes, the adverse impact is localized and so very visible, while the benefit is across the board and invisible. I’d imagine that North Dakota will go from having unskilled people making $100,000+ a year to a ghost town. So what? That just means the boom moves elsewhere and is much more widely distributed.
Not that it matters, since there’s nothing to be done. As I said, I expect $20 to $25/bbl (in current dollars) to become the new normal. Oil producers will adapt or die.
We have Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker-Hughes and Weatherford with 50K in job cuts in the news while the leader of the free world is busy this week trying to destroy the energy industry while pandering to the greenies.
Time ago, a lot, I said there will be fight over natural resources between China and US, Dr Bob said you are wrong, US have a lot.
He was right
the funny part is we also have
The US and Canada have everything they need to go it alone, except perhaps a shortage of some REMs, with which China is rich. But China is likely to lose that advantage. I just read an interesting article about scientists using doped-boron lattices to take the place of rare-earth metals in many applications. Also, the US and (particularly) Canada are no slouches in REM proven reserves and unexplored unproven reserves.
And the other big industry here is ag. With the current water conditions that one isn’t looking so good. Meanwhile the guv now is mandating 25-36% water cuts that won’t do one thing to help. Hell my lawn already looks dead. At least we’re moving ahead on $100B train so we can get to SF in only twice the time a plane takes. (maybe in my lifetime but I doubt it)
Well don’t worry about North America getting REM independence. Someone will have to protect the desert tortoise or the polar bear. (not that I’m really against that, it’s just the regulations always overshoot)
OTH I often forget that 1/3 of Kern County is on the Mojave desert including the beautiful town of Boron, home to a really big hole in the ground.
Yeah, and the really bad news is that California and the Southwest generally have been in an anomalous extreme wet period for the last couple hundred years, and all indications are that the wet period has ended and we’re due for a thousand years or so of really dry weather.
It’d be bad enough even if the governments weren’t “helping”. With them screwing things up even worse than they’d otherwise be, I’d get out of California in general and the dry Southwest in general. There’s just not enough water there to support even a small fraction of the current population, and no prospect of fixing that. Drawing down ancient aquifers has hidden the problem for quite a while, but those are drying up.
At least we’re moving ahead on $100B train so we can get to SF in only twice the time a plane takes.
You won’t have trouble finding a seat.
I’m telling you, National Progressives Day is the way out of this mess. If 30 million normal people could each bag just one progressive, the problem would disappear.
Throw in libturds and neocons and RINOs and I’m in.
Maybe we need a “Shoot Anyone You Don’t Like Day”. I don’t think there’s much question about who wins.
Well don’t worry about North America getting REM independence. Someone will have to protect the desert tortoise or the polar bear
Dirty Harry Reid will be all over that tortoise. As long as he can make a buck off of it. The latest rumor in Vegas is Harry’s beating was from the mob. I don’t know the odds.
I wasn’t aware of it until a couple days ago, but it seems that Google no longer indexes comments on WordPress blogs. Making matters worse, it also seems that the WordPress search feature itself doesn’t index comments.
I tried http://www.duckduckgo.com also, which is a bunch of ex-googlites. It has the same problem.
Note that, at close to 30 million bbl/bay, the US is now the world’s third largest producer, behind Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Not sure where you got this figure, the USA is running about 11 million bbl/day of crude oil production. Probably going to crest at 12 or 13 million bbl/day. I wonder if that 30 million bbl/day figure includes natural gas equivalents (methane, propane, butane) which would be around the right amount.
That graph addresses operating costs. It does not address capital costs. The capital cost for a fracked well using horizontal drilling is almost ten million dollars. If we go to $25/bbl then many smaller companies will go bankrupt since they are carrying an enormous capital cost of wells in their stock.
Saudi Arabia’s cost of drilling wells is much, much lower than in the USA since they do not use fracking and horizontal drilling. But their wells turn to water production in 90 days or less now as they chase oil pockets around Ghawar.
Regarding searching in WordPress: the googles came up with this post about some search alternatives http://www.wpmayor.com/best-wordpress-search-plugin/ . A couple of free ones in there that purport to do comments.
Here’s the googles I did; some other sources in there; didn’t check them all out: https://www.google.com/search?q=wordpress+search+comments&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#q=wordpress+search+comments&tbs=qdr:y&start=0 . I adjusted the search to only display the last years’ worth of results.
I assume that you have a good sitemap / xml-generator plugin on your site.
Also, this one looks like it will work https://wordpress.org/plugins/search-everything/ .
@Rick H
Thanks! I’m not sure how I missed Search Everything, but I just installed it and it appears to work. Appreciate it.
I used Google just now to search for the Robot Bartender joke I’ve posted here three times. They’re all there. Here’s one:
http://www.ttgnet.com/journal/2011/11/08/tuesday-8-november-2011/
Just got this from my aunt:
Estate Planning
A man was telling his buddy: “You won’t believe what happened last night.” My daughter walked into the living room and said: “Dad, do not pay off my college tuition loan, cancel my allowance, throw away all my clothes and take my iPhone and laptop. In addition, please take all of my jewelry to Salvation Army. Then, sell my car, take my front door key away from me and lock me out of your house. Then, disown me and never talk to me again. And don’t forget to write me out of your will and leave my share to anyone you choose.”
“Holy Smokes”, replied the friend, “She actually said that?”
The father replied: “Well, she didn’t actually put it quite like that.” What she said was,: “Dad, meet my new boyfriend, Mohammed. We’re going to work together on Hillary’s 2016 election campaign.”
I’ll agree with Greg. Google works, and particularly Google Advanced Search works.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t work ALL the time, and given that fact then I don’t even have confidence that it works (and fails to do so) consistently. It’s always found anything I asked it to find, UNTIL I asked it to look for nick’s posts – then FAIL. Still finds what I’d asked it to search on previously, but certainly doesn’t find everything.
BUMMER! I HATE inconsistent errors.
I don’t think it’s an inconsistent error so much as that Google must have stopped indexing WP comments in the last couple of months. I just did a search of ttgnet.com for “gridiron”, which Greg uses in that joke. Google finds the 9 October 2014 example and the 24 February 2015 example, but nothing later.
BTW, I watched the pilot of the new Fox show, “The Last Man on Earth”, last night. It was OK and very funny at parts. He attached a bullhorn to the largest diesel pusher RV he could find and drove around the lower 48 looking for other survivors. At one point he drove it in a mall.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Man_on_Earth_%28TV_series%29
OK, when the water stops flowing, fix it. Just sawing a hole in the diving board of your new home and using the pool for a large potty is gross. But funny once you realize why he is sitting on the diving board with a roll of toilet paper. And his method of entry to a store is the ultimate in lazy, shooting a Beretta pistol at the glass until he make a big enough hole to walk in.
I do know one thing though. If you are the last man on earth then you do not need to be a prepper. The whole world is your flea market.
I was rolling on the floor at his methodology in eating twinkies. I have never seen anyone do that before.
The one bright spot for these countries, although not for US oil producers, is that US law still prohibits exporting petroleum.
US Law prohibits exports of crude oil.
Although crude oil exports are banned, the same ban does not apply to the sale of refined products or natural gas liquids (NGLs).
US exports of petroleum products have tripled since 2006 to a new record high in July
… while the leader of the free world is busy this week trying to destroy the energy industry while pandering to the greenies.
He’s trying to destroy the coal business to honor a campaign pledge. While it’s bad for coal, it could help the natural gas market.