09:45 – Our inventory of biology and chemistry kits is getting low, so I’ll take time today to build another dozen or so of each. We have all the components and subassemblies in stock, so it’s just a question of boxing them up.
I was actually surprised this morning by Charles Krauthammer’s column, Redskins and Reason. As far as I’m concerned, he nailed it.
14:12 – I’ve been doing some casual analysis of our revenues this year versus 2012, and I conclude that the actions of the federal government in 2013 have had a tremendous impact. In 2013Q1, our revenues were about six times those of 2012Q1. In 2013Q2, the sequester kicked in and our revenues were 192% those of 2012Q2. In 2013Q3, the government shutdown and debt limit crisis hit just at the end, and our revenues were only 161% those of 2012Q3. Interestingly, the second half of September was the real killer. If the second half of September had only maintained the run rate of the first half, we’d have finished Q3 at close to the 192% gain of Q2. Sales fell off a cliff around 9/15, presumably in expectation of the October budget crisis. October sales may equal those of October 2012, if we’re lucky. It seems that people are postponing or cutting back on consumer spending due both to the higher taxes that kicked in in Q1 and the uncertainty spawned by this month’s budget crisis.
Our original goal was to double revenue in 2013 versus 2012. We may still make that, but it’s not a lock by any means. But if things had continued all year as they started the year, we’d have at least quadrupled revenues and possibly hextupled them. So, I think our modified goal for 2014 will be to increase revenues by 50% year on year. Even that may be optimistic, depending on what the damned government does.
I have this song on my MP3 player, I guess that I should delete it:
http://www.amazon.com/First-Redneck-on-the-Internet/dp/B002M2S6K0?tag=ap0a7eddd0-yc_exp-20
The Washington Skins! Does not have a ring to it.
And the mythical man month rears it’s ugly head again. 500 million lines of code?
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/361743/healthcaregov-needs-five-million-code-lines-rewritten-andrew-johnson
Really? Really? I don’t think so.
So, since the federal government has gigantic resources, I guess all they need to do is hire 5,000,000 coders to do a line each. That way, they could actually finish the project in only a million years or two.
Obummer is on TV giving a speech in the Rose Garden lying his ass off about ObummerCare. Does anybody really believe OshitwadCare is a success? People can’t even sign up. Does anybody believe he is really getting “the best and brightest” to fix OSWC? If they don’t start from scratch, they should just call it Windows 9. Maybe he should hire MS to really turn it into spaghetti code.
Our President is a liar, has no integrity and certainly is no leader.
Next we will see Obummer on the TV banging the table with his shoe yelling, “There is no problem here!”.
Does the Washington NFL team, soon to be known as the Native Americans, play the third string for the first 3 quarters?
Does anybody believe he is really getting “the best and brightest” to fix OSWC?
No, because he never asked me to work on it.
And the mythical man month rears it’s ugly head again. 500 million lines of code?
Really? Really? I don’t think so.
4,998,000 lines of the code is nothing but comments. You see, the contractor got paid per line of source with the contract failing to specify that the line of source actually had to accomplish anything. You know, like congress. Where a member really does not have to accomplish anything.
Maybe he should hire MS to really turn it into spaghetti code.
All good code is spaghetti code.
http://joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000069.html
4,998,000 lines of the code is nothing but comments. You see, the contractor got paid per line of source with the contract failing to specify that the line of source actually had to accomplish anything.
But there are 500 million lines of code in the system. Or maybe you mean, 499,998,000 lines of the code are comments.
Or maybe you mean, 499,998,000 lines of the code are comments.
I stand corrected. Or they used 100 contractors.
It seems that people are postponing or cutting back on consumer spending due both to the higher taxes that kicked in in Q1 and the uncertainty spawned by this month’s budget crisis.
It is not just consumer spending. We had a GREAT third quarter and the fourth quarter is starting … poorly. Businesses in the oil and gas arena are watching their spending very closely also. There is an incredible amount of capital spending in the queue for 2014 but we are not seeing much of it yet. “Global HPI spending poised to jump 15% in 2014 amid increasing US activity”:
http://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/Article/3268162/Latest-News/Global-HPI-spending-poised-to-jump-15-in-2014-amid-increasing-US-activity.html
“The outlook for the global hydrocarbon processing industry (HPI) is upbeat. Global spending is expected to exceed $279 billion in 2014, and spending in the US alone is forecast to reach nearly $78 billion.”
“The $279 billion in overall spending is up nearly 15% from $244 billion in 2013.”
“Due to its abundant shale reserves, North America is particularly well-positioned to become self-sufficient in energy over the next two decades. The US is also anticipated to become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) within the next few years.”
Can any of you intertube tech savvy people tell me why the Obuttwadcare system cost so much. I mean besides the obvious contractor payback.
Couldn’t they have used that new NSA super center to host everything? That would also make it a lot easier for the NSA to have access to all of our medical records.
Are there 20 different server farms for all the db’s that have to be tied together. Somebody here must have worked on a system as large as this.
Can any of you intertube tech savvy people tell me why the Obuttwadcare system cost so much.
1. new benefits such as pediatric dental and vision
2. free birth control and abortions
3. no pre-existing conditions – get sick, buy insurance and you are covered
4. the young people are subsidizing the old people – the max differential between old and young insurance cost is three to one
5. insurance companies are unsure what new costs are out there
6. expansion of the medical coding system by 10X
7. probably about a 100 more reasons
I think he was asking about the website, not UCA itself.
Three words: Designed for Failure. All you need to know. Barry told us today that: “It works.” And: “It will save you money.” Both outright blatant lies of the first order. And the actual claims processing/coverage is allegedly supposed to start on January 1; that ain’t gonna happen. If people think it’s complex and a total cluster-fuck now, wait till January. It will get so bad that they’ll claim they now have no choice but to institute a gigantic single-payer socialist enterprise and also, as Bob has predicted, merge all retirement pension accounts, private and public, along with SS and Medicare, into one gigantic superfund, which they will then plunder at will until it runs out completely.
While all this is going on: There will be more terror attacks; more school and other public shootings (about which we will hear nothing after a week or two; what the late Gore Vidal called “The United States of Amnesia); more overseas crises and military actions; a continued tanking of the economy (these guys will sabotage and sandbag any positive developments that Lynn has mentioned for the energy fields); and the Heroine of Tripoli and Benghazi will continue her phony campaign feints while they gear up to declare a state of national emergency and keep Barry in there for another eight years or move the Mooch in, which amounts to the same thing.
And judging from the results that the dude gets who goes around interviewing people to sign petitions, most Murkan cretins have zero problem supporting a Nazi-style police state (his latest project). I’m guessing he could go out again next week and posit a Soviet, North Korean or Cuban police state and get the same results, and if he does it in one of the coastal elite cities or a college town it will be a landslide.
The country’s government, media, academia and mainstream churches and synagogues have basically been hijacked by communists; maybe not literally in most cases but for all practical purposes, sixty years after his death and descent into Hell, Stalin has won.
Are there 20 different server farms for all the db’s that have to be tied together.
In short, yes. And more.
The system has to be able to make queries to the IRS for income data, DHS for citizenship/residence data, somebody else for employer data (to see if you have a plan at work or if your employer doesn’t have insurance), etc. In addition, it has to send data to all the insurance companies that are participating to enroll you.
The factors that doomed this from the start:
– the contracts were issued late. In December 2011 the contracts were let, most apparently on a sole-source, no bid basis by amending existing contracts.
– the requirements weren’t in draft form until after the 2012 elections to avoid it becoming a campaign issue
– the government chose to be their own systems engineering and integration shop. A job that they usually farm out to experienced contractors. In this case, the group doing it inside the government had no experience in doing that job.
– the late start meant it went live without testing being completed.
I predicted this would fail when I read in mid 2012 that the contracts had been let, but the requirements weren’t out.
A side note: the main front end is in violation of copyright law. They used an open source module that has a GPL attached. Not a problem usually, except they stripped out the header comments with the copyright notice. Oops.
Right Mr. Bob, although Mr. Lynn is right also.
Thanks Mr. ech. I wonder where the main server(s) are for coordinating all of this. Probably outsourced to China. lol Or Canada.
http://www.healthcare.gov is sitting on the Akamai distributed server network. How 1990s! I would put it on AWS (Amazon web services) like Netflix.
C:diideswinclasses>tracert healthcare.gov
Tracing route to healthcare.gov [172.226.55.205] over a maximum of 30 hops:
1 <1 ms <1 ms <1 ms 192.168.0.1
2 1 ms <1 ms <1 ms 192.168.2.1
3 1053 ms 1149 ms 1139 ms 108-237-228-3.lightspeed.hstntx.sbcglobal.net [108.237.228.3]
4 * * 8 ms 71.144.128.192
5 * * * Request timed out.
6 * * * Request timed out.
7 14 ms 15 ms 7 ms 12.83.86.97
8 32 ms 74 ms 12 ms ggr1.dlstx.ip.att.net [12.122.139.1]
9 * * * Request timed out.
10 13 ms 13 ms 13 ms a172-226-55-205.deploy.static.akamaitechnologies.com [172.226.55.205]
Trace complete.
Lynn
LOL!!! Internet Explorer offers to fix ObuttwadCare site:
http://twitchy.com/2013/10/21/what-say-you-netscape-internet-explorer-offers-to-help-fix-healthcare-gov/
If any of your sales are tied to federal government spending, September can be a wild month as the fiscal year ends Sept 30. Hence there’s a mad rush to spend any “extra” money discovered in the budget during September. By mid month, most of the found money is spent so the spending spigot is turned off until 01 Oct and first day of the new fiscal year.
In 2013 the shutdown complicated October, but I had some sales to a FedGov customer that came in in early September and had to be completed before the FY ended for this reason.
Don’t like ObuttwadCare, better not go to any public demonstration:
http://www.infowars.com/homeland-security-spends-80-million-on-armed-guards-for-civil-disturbances/
My advice is always to avoid crowds anyway. Better yet, avoid cities.
Local media is confirming that P&G (in nearby Cincinnati) is cutting the width of both Charmin TP and Bounty paper towels by a half-inch. Guess I’m going to have to take a tape measure with me now, because my paper towel holders are spring-loaded. Anything less than the former standard width won’t work. They are also cheapening the quality of what’s on the roll. I found that out the hard way–fingers punch right through the TP now, while in use.
TMI
No-bid contracts, issued in a hurry, under federal contracting rules. Disaster, both financial and functional. No surprise there. They’ll spend at least a year now, getting it right. On a cost-plus contract, no doubt.
@Chuck: Changing the physical dimensions of paper towels? That seems really strange – there must be millions of paper-towel holders out there that will no longer work with their brand. Seems like a good way to commit brand-suicide. But the cost-cutting is clear: this is how manufacturers hide inflation: Reduce quality, reduce packaging size, charge the same price.
Yep. My wife used to buy orange juice in one-gallon (128 fl. oz.) jugs. A couple weeks ago, those were discontinued in favor of a new container that looks like a pitcher but contains only 116 fl. oz. I’m betting the price is the same for about 10% less product.
I’ll know things have gotten really bad when the stuff I buy for kits starts reducing package size instead of just increasing the price. I mean, are they going to change the kilogram bottle of potassium iodide to a new, improved 900 g container?
Sure! New, light, fluffy potassium iodide, why not?
TP in K-town jumped $3 per package of 15 rolls in the past week. They are the same size as before, just 60% more for the package. I haven’t tested their relative finger punch test, yet. At this rate it may be cheaper to use American $1 bills. This isn’t a condemnation of American money, it’s because Canada has coins for $1 & $2, and the smallest bill we have is $5!
You guys must have weird TP holders. Mine will take smaller widths very easily. If they get small enough I’ll put two rolls on!
I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a TP holder that was width-dependent, other than allowing a maximum width. The upstairs ones have spring-loaded spindles that will accept any width up to standard. The downstairs one is just a pivoting hook.
Our Charmin TP width was cut here in the Great State of Texas a year or so ago. Those rolls just rattle around on the holder now. Probably 0.5 inch or so. Maybe 0.7 inch, they look small now.
BTW, Amazon just announced that they are installing shipping crews in the Charmin and Bounty plants and will be shipping directly to the customer with no intermediate shipping. Smart and shows that Amazon wants to kill Wal*Mart. Just go to prove the theory that the competitors around the base of the pillar of the king are continuously trying to pull them down.
I was on a short recon in the new Walmutt Sooper-Store up here this afternoon; not impressed. The ammo section was pathetic, mostly empty with plenty of shotgun ammo, though. Everything else either cleaned out earlier or never there.
As to political correctness, have a gander at this:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/nigger-brown-gone-coon-cheese-next/2008/09/26/1222217491581.html
A guy who was nicknamed “Nigger” had a stadium named after him. Now it’s being re-built but the government won’t let the stadium retain the old name.
The whackjob whose complaints got this started is now going after Coon cheese, a great Australian delicacy.
I wonder how long until Nigeria decides to rename their country?
The cheddar cheese here that used to be sold as “Coon” cheese, in a black wrapper, had that name dropped years ago, but they kept the black wrapper; it’s extra-sharp and I get it all the time and let it come to room temp before eating.
I never thought of Coon as cheddar, which I tend to avoid. I like to cut off a hunk, either room temperature or from the fridge, and eat it straight or in a sandwich.
My paper towel holders do not have a central rod core; just springy “arms” on each side with a circular ridge that fits inside the end of the paper towel roll’s cardboard core. The spring tension holds the roll in place. There is one in the kitchen, bathroom, and basement. If the paper producers all switch standards, then I will have to get new holders, but actually, everyone I know around here uses this type of holder, if they are mounted on a wall. I suspect P&G are in for a drastic sales fall-off unless every other producer follows suit.
I used to marvel at P&G, but they are cutting down the size of everything they produce, and they bought out Braun and turned that good electric razor into a piece of junk. I cannot even buy cutter heads for the models I own, and they are not yet 10 years old. Not sure why P&G bought Braun—they are into selling disposables, like safety razors, and Braun certainly does not fit that model. They reduced the size of their bath soap bars, which is a real PITA, because the new size produces tiny, unusable soap bar remnants at twice the rate now.
Big problem today is that there are no alternatives to most brands. A supervisor at Walmart—when I complained about the lack of choices after they used to carry 3 brands of everything—told me recently that there are no longer 3 manufacturers of most things they carry.
I quit shopping at Walmart for everything but drugs, and I will change that when Tiny House sells and I get to leave Tiny Town. Recent statistics show Walmart has about 60,000 US employees that are on welfare assistance. You people who don’t want an increase in the minimum wage are responsible for that. Walmart and restaurants that want you to pay their wait staff for them are costing all of us big time. The crazy thing is that Walmart’s around me, often no longer have the lowest prices on items. And the employees in my closest store have become surly beyond belief. They let all the older folks go, and most everyone there is now between 20 and 40. Drastic change from just a few years ago, when they acted like they really wanted your business.
Costco’s own brand of paper towels are 50% or so longer than normal, and I doubt they will shrink them lengthwise. I liked Bounty for decades but Kirkland is Good Enough. I doubt their toilet paper – wait, they call it bath tissue – will get narrower either. The rolls are already too fat (diameter) for two of the three dispensers in this house. Have to use the outer quarter inch before they fit.
Costco’s vanilla ice cream comes in two-packs, but each is an actual half-gallon. Try to find that in a supermarket these days. (Really, really good vanilla ice cream.)
Yeah, with only a couple exceptions, Costco’s Kirkland housebrand stuff is at least as good as big brand names and often better. Consumer Reports has rated several of their Kirkland products very highly in competition with national brand names.
“You people who don’t want an increase in the minimum wage are responsible for that.”
Guilty. Should we raise it to $100/hr so no more poor people?
Sam’s Club Members TP and PT are just as good as the brands. I buy them in giant packs.
Guilty. Should we raise it to $100/hr so no more poor people?
I think that we should give all poor people in the USA a new Mercedes Benz car also.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-GFqhCq2HA
http://www.dailypundit.com/?p=27799#comment-103802
This is all moot anyway, or soon will be. You will pay whatever for whatever you absolutely must have. Tribute, so the gangbangers don’t burn your condo down with you in it. Taxes to support the cops and firefighters who won’t show up anymore. The going rate for whatever ammo will fit whatever firearms you possess that have not been confiscated or lost or stolen. The prevailing prices for food, water, meds, etc. If you don’t have it, you don’t get it. Mass die-offs, eventually. I’d avoid cities and suburbs, major highways, etc.