09:50 – The latest IMF report on the eurozone is out, and it makes truly scary reading for anyone who’s invested in the euro, financially or emotionally. Basically, the report concludes that the euro is doomed unless the eurozone takes certain specific actions. That’s a superfluous qualifier, because those actions–debt pooling, eurobonds, and so on–are steps that Germany and the rest of the northern tier are never going to take.
Germany is as aware as anyone that there is no solution to this crisis, short of Germany agreeing to pay everyone else’s debts. Not just current debts, either. Germany would be expected to continue funding deficit spending in the southern tier permanently. The probability of Germany, along with Finland and Holland, agreeing to such a “transfer union” are somewhere between zero and less than zero. So, the euro is going to crash. Or, more precisely, the southern tier is going to crash, whether they’re on the euro or revert to using local currencies.
One of two things is going to happen: either Germany will revert to the D-mark, or possibly to a new currency. Call it the Northern euro. In the latter case, Finland and Holland may join Germany in a currency union, and perhaps a political union. (Everyone is now painfully aware what happens when a currency union exists without a political union to support it. But the cultures and economies of those three countries are similar enough that a currency union might be workable for at least a couple of decades before stresses started to tear it apart.) The second option is that the debtor nations will depart the euro and return to sovereign currencies, leaving Germany, Finland, and Holland with perhaps Luxembourg and one or two other nations using the euro.
German politics is bi-polar about this. On the one hand, if Germany keeps the euro and other, profligate nations leave it, the debts they owe Germany will continue to be denominated in euros, which will remain a “hard” currency. Germany would hope to get at least some of those debts repaid, in hard euros. On the other hand, Germany has in effect co-signed for hundreds of billions of euros in loans to southern tier nations that have no prospect of ever being repaid by those nations. Germany will be on the hook to repay those loans, which of course are euro-denominated. That means that if Germany departs the euro, which would immediately crash to something like 5% to 10% of its former relative value, Germany would be able to buy cheap euros to pay off those debts.
Forget all that stuff about “war guilt” and “European solidarity”. The simple truth is that for Germany, as for everyone else, it ultimately comes down to money. Who will get stuck paying all these bills? Until now, it seems that Germany’s policies have been intended to force weak nations into leaving the euro. But it seems to me that things are shifting now, with the ever-increasing commitments that Germany finds itself tied to. At some point soon, one of two things is going to happen. A weak nation will abandon the euro, which will start the dominoes toppling. Or Germany will finally give up, and abandon the euro itself.
In fact, given that for all intents and purposes the euro is already a zombie currency, it’s possible that both things will happen. Germany will go back to its sovereign currency, and so will everyone else, leaving the euro as a currency without a country.
“Northern Euro”…the Neuro.
Dumb joke alert — thought this might amuse some people down under:
Two crocodiles were sitting at the side of Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra.
The smaller one turned to the bigger one and said, ‘I can’t understand how
you can be so much bigger than me. We’re the same age, we were the same size
as kids… I just don’t get it.’
‘Well,’ said the big Croc, ‘what have you been eating?’
‘Politicians, same as you,’ replied the small Croc.
‘Hmm. Well, where do you catch them?’
‘Down the other side of the lake near the parking lot by Parliament House.’
‘Same here. Hmm… how do you catch them?’
‘Well, I crawl up under one of their Lexus cars and wait for one to unlock
the car door. Then I jump out, grab them by the leg, shake the shit out of
them, and eat ’em!’
‘Ah!’ says the big Crocodile, ‘I think I see your problem. You’re not
getting any real nourishment. See, by the time you finish shaking the shit
out of a Politician, there’s nothing left but an arsehole and a briefcase.’
Perfect, sir. Send those crocs over to us for a little assignment in Mordor On the Potomac and if they wrap that one up nicely, we have a bonus task for them on Wall Street, NYC.
The bureaucrats and political hacks who foisted the EU and the Euro on the people of Europe years ago have a special and very warm place waiting for them. I hope. It was guaranteed to fail at the start, and the scary thing going on now is that they intend to keep hacking away at this like they’ve been doing all along; they’re NOT GIVING UP! Thus guaranteeing lots more suffering for people there for decades to come. Bastards.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-20/dollar-hits-new-high-v-euro/4142912
I think this would be a good time to have a holiday in Europe. Haven’t been there since 2003.
(My elder nephew is about to have a holiday in, wait for it….
GREECE.)
OFD wrote:
“Perfect, sir. Send those crocs over to us for a little assignment in Mordor On the Potomac and if they wrap that one up nicely, we have a bonus task for them on Wall Street, NYC.”
No Way! Get your own crocs! We’ll need every croc we can get to get rid of the excess Labor and Green politicians who will soon be out of a job.
OK, fine; keep your Aussie crocs, see if I care. We have both freshwater and saltwater crocs, NO, silly, not here in northern Vermont! Florider!
Actually while I was working down in MA six years ago, some cretin let a baby croc go in one of the creeks near the south end of Worcester and Auburn, where I was staying at the time. It was eventually caught, but had grown a bit; luckily they got it before the frosts. I guess. And I am given to understand that the ones in Florider routinely grab pets out of back yards, but are fighting a losing battle in the Everglades with all the gigantic pythons that are now taking over. Also let go as adolescents by their moronic owners.
Many homes in Florida that front areas that would be gator prone (ponds, lakes, etc) are fenced so as to prevent unwanted intrusion. Alligators certainly seem to enjoy the taste of dog. And I still say that the problem of invasive species in the Glades (excepting homo sapiens) could be solved by the use of bounties.
Are you suggesting, sir, that we needs must exempt the homo sapiens sapiens from bounties?
Many Asian peoples also delight in the taste of our canine friends. I saw the butchered carcasses hanging alongside the pigs and ducks in the town markets there long ago.
I’d like to see a bounty on the heads of cats, liberals, anarchists, atheists and other miscreants. Such a bounty program would easily pay for itself in reduced welfare and other damage those types do to society.
Well Chuck, looks like Berlin might be in more financial do do than Greece:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-20/hamlet-asked-to-pay-historic-debt/4141964
“Centuries-old debt comes back to bite Berlin”
Think Berlin will still be well off enough to sell me a Döner Kebap? I really miss a good Döner. Made sure I had one at least once a week while we were there—just in case.
I love Donner Kebabs. I only occasionally eat chicken ones, but will eat Beef and Lamb ones any day of the week. I never get sick of them.
I quite liked Berlin, if I ever go back I’ll have to go to the zoo, some how I just didn’t find time in 2003.
Chuck, you know just where to hit a man: right in his stomach. What I’d give for a Kebap stall in Seattle! And since I don’t post too often, I’ll second the German/Continental diet. Breakfast is some leftover meat, maybe some cheese in addition, half a roll and black coffee. Crispy Sweetie Wheetie-Flix and milk? I don’t think so….
Back in the Eighties I did a German/Austrian cookery class, and the instructor said Austrians ate at least six times a day. A “meal” wasn’t a meal unless it had meat, so as far as they were concerned they only had three meals a day. From the way she described Austro-German eating habits I would have expected a lot of them to be significantly overweight. But when I was in Austria in 1995 and Germany in 2003 I don’t think I saw a single overweight native. The American members of my coach tours were a very different story…
Many Asian peoples also delight in the taste of our canine friends.
I chowed down on dog one time. Unwittingly. I was in the Philippines in 1971 and was wandering the streets with a friend visiting bars. We were both wasted. Saw a snack cart and bought what looked like a chicken leg. Ate the damn thing. Got back to the air base and was informed of the choice of cuisine. I barfed immediately but it did little good.
On the way back to the base we wound up taking a “short cut” that took us through some very dangerous streets where you could see knives flashing in what little light there was. Ladies of the evening hiking their dresses offering their wares but the noise of the flies buzzing around their offerings was not at all appealing. We were lucky to get out alive.
Last time I was ever drunk and have probably consumed no more than 20 drinks since then.
Pretty funny, Ray; I was in the Philippines briefly a couple of times, after you; transient barracks each time except for the weeks of aircrew survival training at one point. On my first time through a group of us transient enlisted scum were sitting in our crappy day room watching the TV, which was running the local six-o’clock nooz; they had several convicted and sentenced drug dealers tied to chairs and then a firing squad blew them away. We were impressed. Couple of years later I was on the Thai-Cambodian border, and at one crossing the Thai border patrol guys had a line of posts set up with heads on them, smugglers, insurgents, people who pissed them off.
They do a few things differently over there.
They do a few things differently over there.
No shit. My first ride in a Jeekney and I was offered 25 virgins, five of them the driver’s mother, 5 were his sisters, 10 were first cousins, a few grandmothers thrown in for good measure.. First trip into one of the bars in Angeles City and my crotch was accosted by a half dozen girls of the evening. I declined from fear of getting some sort of dick rot.
I stayed in the permanent party barracks as I was on TDY for three weeks. Made a deal with the made to do my clothes the same day for a few dollars extra. Left the room each day and came back to a fully made bed and clean clothes for $10.00 a week. A mamasan was glad to have the work.
I went into the shower one time and the cleaning lady was in there. I asked her to leave so I could take a shower. She said no, she had work to do and I could just take my shower. I did and she ignored me although I felt odd.
Jeepneys were an adventure with no real rules of the road. Just go where there is space, keep the horn active and go. I just hung on and closed my eyes.
I really wanted to get into the country side and told the driver so. He was adamant that a virgin would be better. It took some effort to convince him otherwise. But once that was over we had a good day. I probably paid him too much for the day but for my money it was cheap.
I really don’t think the town had many rules.
Oh, and I was there early in 1972. TDY only.
Early in 72 I was freezing my ass off in Bangor, Maine guarding them nukes, and then they sent me to combat training and off to You-Know-Where. Second half of 73 and first of 74 was Marin County, Kalifornia, and then my final active duty year, 74-75 was in Thailand-Laos-Cambodia. Then two years inactive reserve and two more years of active Army Reserve.
My best times over there were also out in the countrysides; better food, friendlier people (especially if one made an effort to learn the languages) and mostly quieter. I went to Thai language school for two months solid in the northeast provinces and man, those people treated me like fucking royalty. I was invited to dinners out in the sticks and parties that not even Thai or American generals got out to see. Fuck them anyway.
Oh whoops, pardon mon Francais, mes amis; got caught up again in the old GI lingo and street cop slang….
I’m shocked, Dave! I’m not used to that sort of language.
Yeah, really. I get enough French as it is! (shakes fist)
Sophie Marceau can whisper French to me any time she likes… 🙂
The Man From Oz scores!
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/celebrity/sophie_marceau/pictures/
Finally, we agree on someone.
I hope you get a few years knocked off your time in Purgatory for posting that link. Yum.
In the last picture I would have quite willingly volunteered to scrub her back. I used to have a pic of her in a translucent top, displaying her lovely boobs. Alas, I think I’ve lost it.
My best times over there were also out in the countrysides; better food, friendlier people (especially if one made an effort to learn the languages) and mostly quieter.
Very much true. After I got out of Angeles City it was a different country. People were friendly and were not selling their virgin mother of 12. I would ask the driver to stop so I could take some pictures and he would comply. He would do anything actually as he was being paid very well by local standards. Anyway, people would come up to me and talk, some would proudly show me their shack, almost all offered me food, many wanted their pictures taken. Kids would kick balls toward me fully expecting me to play with them.
Back in Angeles City whores were grabbing my crotch and at the same time I suspect their accomplice was reaching into my pockets to grab money. Sex shows in all the bars. Dark alleys with questionable characters, ladies with sexual deseases that were probably unknown to science. It was a somewhat scary city. 180 degrees opposite the country far removed from the city. Amazing what a military base can do to corrupt a city.
I spent 10.5 years employed by Uncle Sam. Made it halfway around the world and saw things that would make some grown men heave, did things of which I am not very proud and would result in incarceration for life if it were not sanctioned by the government.
Last 6 years was in Texas, working with computers. Military Personnel Center at Randolph AFB, the big dog in the personnel world of the USAF. Promises were made, but never kept. Officers lied through their teeth to protect themselves while enlisted slobs got reprimanded because the officer was always correct even though their version conflicted with 12 other enlisted people. I no longer wanted to work in a system where truth was predicated on rank, not facts.
So the USAF and myself parted ways. I then went to work for EDS under the Perot empire. Rode a couple of times on Southwest Airlines with the fellow. He is a flipping idiot, but could sell condoms to nuns. It was a good company then, strict rules, but the rewards were good. The local office was run by an ex military officer that tried to run it like the military. Did not work. Eventually the office closed and I went to work for Burroughs. Nine months with them and one of my clients, a large commercial bank, made me an offer that I could not refuse. My first job with the bank was to assist in the creation of the PULSE shared ATM network and develop the software for the bank. Probably the second most fun and challenging project I have ever worked on. The most challenging and fun was the development of the cross compilers that were written in Algol on a B-6700 to generate B-3500 machine code.
The only thing I regret some is not going into the reserves. Although my distaste for military leadership would have made that experience miserable so the regrets are considerably tempered.
Ahhh, the B-6700 running MCP, written mostly in Algol. Those were the days. Of course, Burroughs was 200 rungs below Control Data and its Cybers (may peace and blessings be upon them.)
As to the Philippines…
We have half the adult population of the Philippines at my workplace working for a bunch called Accenture. They work crazy hard, a woman I used to work with would be there when I arrived and almost always still there when I left. I think she worked Saturdays and Sundays too. And she was typical. I’d rather have a life.
The USN and USAF should have had their own on-base brothels. Regular checkups for the girls (and guys?) Less risk of rip-offs. You see? There is a role for government!
I worked three-and-a-half years for EDS in Maffachufetts from 95 t0 98 after my first marriage fell apart, night shift operator and then sys admin and infrastructure analyst, VMS, NT and UNIX. I started there right after they left the auspices of GM and returned to their independent corporate status, with a succession of less than stellar CEOs from then on. Then I remarried and moved up here.
In line with Ray’s comments about officers and enlisted personnel, I note that several decades later, I never see former officers availing themselves of VA hospital/medical treatment, only enlisted scum. And I never see former officers at the Legion and VFW posts, either. Just sayin.
As for military brothels, that would open up a whole big new can of worms, sir. I note you did not include the Army or Marines for one thing. And would this include partners for gay personnel as well? For an interesting alternative viewpoint, see the works of Dr. Cynthia Enloe and Joni Seager, both of whom I knew back in my daze as a kampus kopper at Clark University in the early 80s. They are still around and though one may not care for their ideologies and perspectives, they are worth reading. I used to chat with Enloe about my experiences on and around the bases in SEA just a few years earlier than that time.
David Hackworth ran a brothel for his unit in Vietnam, he wanted to reduce the chances of his men getting the clap. Of course the brass didn’t like it, but they had lots of reasons to dislike him. He nearly got court martialed over this and other stuff. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hackworth#Vietnam_service, the last paragraph.
I detest prostitution but people are going to buy and sell sex whether we like it or not, so I think it makes sense to make it safe for all involved.
In Korea around 1985, the 2ID medics checked the hookers in Tong Du Chon and the other villes around the division’s camps. I don’t know if this was official military policy or simply something that was winked at by the division commander or other brass.