09:09 – The video of the Reno air race crash was up on YouTube shortly after it happened. Reading the article in the paper this morning, I was surprised to see that the pilot was 74 years old. Now, at 58 years old myself, I’m certainly no ageist, but it strikes me as insane to allow a 74-year-old man to fly a high-performance aircraft in close proximity to crowds of people on the ground, if indeed it can be considered sane to allow anyone to do so. As the paper described the race, there were aircraft flying wingtip-to-wingtip 50 feet (15 meters) off the ground at speeds exceeding 500 mph (800 kph). From the video, that wasn’t taking place when the crash occurred, but even so. Current speculation is that the crash was caused by mechanical problems rather than pilot error, but again, even so. We may never know if reaction time was a factor, or if a pilot 40 or 50 years younger might have avoided hitting the spectators. Maybe not. Maybe no pilot could have avoided those spectators, but again, even so.
When I saw the news headlines the other day–“US Postal Service proposes to end overnight delivery”–and so on, I assumed they were talking about Express Mail. They weren’t. They were talking about reducing the first-class mail service standards. As things stand, local mail is delivered the next business day, with “local” having a pretty broad definition. For example, we have one-day service between us and Greensboro–30 miles away–but also to and from Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill (~90 miles), and usually Atlanta (~250 miles) and Washington DC (~350 miles).
Now, the USPS would like to eliminate that service level, changing first-class standards from 1-3 day to 2-3 day. That would apparently allow them to shut down a pretty large number of distribution centers, cut their staff by about 35,000 employees, and greatly reduce evening overtime work. I’m in favor of all that, but it must be said that it will significantly impact those of us who get discs from Netflix. As things stand, we along with most of the country have one-day service both directions. If I receive a disc on Monday and return it Tuesday, Netflix logs it in on Wednesday and sends me another disc to arrive Thursday. I return that disc Friday, they log it in on Saturday and ship the replacement disc to arrive the following Monday. Going from one-day to two-day service doubles the transit times and cuts the number of discs one can get on any given plan significantly. Of course, Netflix will be delighted by this if it comes to pass, since it’ll cut postage costs way down for frequent renters. On balance, I’m still in favor. As Barbara said, so what? I just bumped our plan from $16/month for one disc at a time to $20/month for two at a time. Worst case, I’ll bump it to $24 for three at a time.
09:45 – I see that CNN and Money Magazine have ranked Winston-Salem #6 among the 25 best places to retire. The image in the article is of a street in Old Salem, with some of the taller buildings in the city center visible on the skyline. Although the article says that we’ve had a cultural renaissance, that’s actually nothing new here. Winston-Salem has been known for decades as the city of the arts. The crowning jewel is the North Carolina School of the Arts which, along with New York City’s Julliard and Tisch, is on nearly everyone’s list of the top three arts schools in the nation, and by no means always as #3.
The article lists state income tax as a factor but ignores property taxes, which are low in Winston-Salem (and, generally, in North Carolina). When Barbara and I considered moving to New Hampshire, which has no state income tax, we were surprised to find that a house similar to our own, on which we were paying something like $2,000/year in property taxes, might have property taxes literally five to ten times that much.
So when a 30-something Air Force pilot smashes his billion dollar aircraft, should we say “Even so”? Or when some young “kids” (you know, 40-somethings in their Porsches) causes an accident, should we say “Even so”?
Ageism is agism. I’m pretty sure there are physicals before each race to make sure the competitors are up to the task. The G forces these race planes pull is immense, and young pilots have passed out from the effort. Shit happens, and shit happens to people who stand too close to machinery that is racing at high speeds. It is a tragedy, but if this is used to eliminate more freedom, then the tragedy hasn’t really happened yet.
What branch of government do you propose to regulate this industry? Freedom is not cheap, and is paid with lives. More lives than wear uniforms and carry guns.
Well, put it this way. Barbara’s dad is nearly 90 years old. Should he be allowed to drive? As things stand, he drives only to familiar destinations near their home, during daylight, and only on city streets. Still, at nearly 90, he is much, much more impaired by his age than a 30 year old guy who blows a 0.08 at a DUI checkpoint is by his BAC. I promise you, the 30-year old guy has better vision, better hearing, and better reaction time than Barbara’s dad. But we put that 30-year-old guy in jail and take away his license, although he’s much less a danger to innocent bystanders than Barbara’s dad is when he’s driving cold sober.
I think we need to have objective standards. When I was a teenager, my reaction time was in the 99.99+ percentile. Now, at age 58, my reaction time is probably only in the 90th percentile. If I make it to 90 years old, it may be in the 5th percentile. At what point is it reasonable to say I should no longer be driving? Reaction time is certainly a critical factor in driving safety. I haven’t checked, but I’d guess mean reaction time for men of 90 is probably well above a full second, perhaps a second and a half. It’s pretty easy to test reaction time, and I think doing that should be a part of every license renewal test. Standardize the test machines to determine mean and standard deviation. Use that to set a cut-off level of two or three sigmas slower than the mean. If that cut-off turns out to be, say, 500 ms, then anyone who can’t meet that standard is denied a license, whether the person is 20 years old or 100.
Better still, use that cutoff to determine objectively whether someone was driving while impaired. If he can beat the required maximum reaction time, he’s not impaired even if his BAC is 0.25%. If he can’t, he’s driving impaired even if his BAC is 0.00%.
Well, comparing a 90 yr old man to a 74 yr old isn’t quite fair, is it?
Should the state hand her father a license without retesting at his age? Absolutely not, but if he passes the test, hand him the license and hope he doesn’t kill someone. Just like they do with a 16 yr old, or a 26 yr old, or a 36 yr old. Obviously a means to test reaction times needs to be included. I don’t believe they use any such test during the driver’s examination, now. At least, not in Canada. My younger son is going for his next level of licensing on Wednesday. I’ll report back on what he experiences.
My mother-in-law gave up driving at 76, she felt she was too old. My mother drove until her death at 81, and I never gave her skills and reaction times a second thought. She could out drive most people of any age.
You have admitted to us on many occasions that you don’t drive very often. I consider you as great as a hazard as any “old” guy. Your reaction time may be better (and I’ll argue that your speed will be much slower than you believe, at least statistically), but your skills will be rusty, if you ever drove enough to have any in the first place. I actually think that they should retest every ten years. Canada used the Imperial measurements when I received my license, and then switched to Metric. I would have to sit and think what the standard distances should be, and from what my kids tell me, the distance isn’t directly converted. They’ve made stopping distances longer. I would actually need to study!
Another reason I think they should retest is that is often the only time people get their eyes checked! 20/20 at 16 doesn’t mean 20/20 at even 17, let alone 52! And I may resemble that remark. I really do need to get my eyes tested, but that’s another story.
But to put blame on a pilot solely based on a single story and his age, is ageism. And I’m shocked, SHOCKED I tell ya, to see you admit to it.
And that was all said with a smile! I sure wish this had editing capabilities.
In high performance sports something is bound to go wrong, especially when you add in the obsessive nature of gravity. I would suspect that the 74 year old that has been flying high performance plans for most of his life is probably more qualified than a 26 year old that has only been flying 4 years. It is not only reaction time, but recognition of a situation, that is important. In the case of mechanical failure neither the 74 year old or the 26 year old is going to fare well. The spectators were too close also contributing to the problem. Even NASCAR tracks will occassionally take out a spectator with all the safeguards. Hell, my mother got smacked in the head with a broken bat at a pro basedball game. Shit happens.
I am a little surprised at your property taxes. My house is 3800 sqft, 4 bedrooms, three baths, two car garage, in ground pool, acre of land, and I only pay $1100.00 in property taxes, 750 to the country, 350 to the city. We also have no income tax except for a tax on dividends and interest. But we do have high sales tax, 9.75%, including food, 7.75% to the state, 2% to the county.
I am a pilot and an aircraft owner. As soon as I heard about this morning I checked in on the message boards related to my aircraft type, Beechtalk.com. As I thought would be the case, members of the message board already have (amazing) photos of the aircraft just prior to the crash showing that the aircraft lost an elevator trim tab, which is used to trim out the forces on the controls about the lateral axis, also known as pitch trim. Without the trim tab, the aircraft became uncontrollable; the aircraft immediately pitched vertically (posited at 9g+) and likely caused the pilot to lapse into GLOC (G-induced loss of consciousness). He is seen in the photo slumped forward with his head on the instrument panel. After the pitch up, the aircraft rolled and dove into the stands. It is amazing that more people were not killed. And it is worth mentioning that a 20 year-old would probably be unable to maintain consciousness in such a maneuver, even with a g-suit on. So the age of the pilot can be put way down the list as a factor in the crash given the facts as they seem to be at this time.
I’m sorry, but the risks are nowhere near equal. I don’t think anyone could reasonably argue that the physical abilities of a man of 74 are anything close to those of a man of half that age. Yes, 37-year-old guys sometimes die of heart attacks, but the likelihood of that occurring is a tiny, tiny fraction of the likelihood for a man of 74.
As to my own reaction time, I just used an on-line test that has several hundred thousand data points with a mean of about 230 milliseconds. Over several tries, my mean was about 160 milliseconds. In an emergency braking situation at 60 MPH, that means I travel about 14 feet before I react, whereas the average is about 20 feet. So, all other things equal, in a situation where I’m able to stop just in time, the average driver would stop six feet too late.
I fully admit that I drive so seldom that my driving skills are probably now below average. Furthermore, I drink alcohol so seldom and so little that I can feel an effect after a couple of beers. Objectively, I suspect I’m a lot more impaired at 0.05% BAC than a regular drinker would be at 0.10%. But I can drive legally at 0.05%, despite the fact that I would consider myself seriously impaired at that level.
Well, as I said, it might turn out that pilot error was not a factor, as is apparently the case. I still maintain, however, that it is a really bad idea to have a man of 74 flying high-performance aircraft close to the ground in the presence of spectators. Actually, I think it’s a bad idea, period, given how small the margin of error is.
Heck, airline pilots are required to retire at age 65 even though their aircraft generally fly themselves, literally, and even though there’s a copilot in the next seat.
So, another government regulatory body? How do you enforce your desire for safety at races? Gunpoint?
They don’t hand out pilot’s licenses like Aspirin, there are stringent medical and physical tests. A friend of mine lost his license due to a medical condition and had to re-test to get it back. He’s 32. The pilot who died, passed the same tests. Shit happens.
Men are notoriously dangerous drivers. Stunting and speeding are the usual means of death for many men. Shall we ban all men drivers in the interest of safety?
I bet, without doing a smidgeon of checking, that far more non-racing planes crash more often than racing planes, and far more people die in one typical passenger jet crash, than all race crashes in total. Perhaps we should ban flying altogether as too dangerous? Along with smoking, drinking, drugs, guns, powerful cars, motorcycles and boats. All planes, of course. And dispense bubble wrap to all for wrapping ourselves in.
Your stance puzzles me. I thought you believed in the freedom to go to hell in your own basket. Every spectator at that race should have had the brain power to calculate the risks involved, or they should stay home.
Like you do! 🙂
s to my own reaction time, I just used an on-line test that has several hundred thousand data points with a mean of about 230 milliseconds.
URL please…
Well, if the question becomes “should a 74 year-old man be flying a very high performance aircraft close to the ground in a pylon race” then my answer is an emphatic “NO!” Should a pilot of that age not be able to fly at all? I think that question depends on the person. Flying itself is not terribly dangerous, as long as one is cognizant of the condition of the aircraft and one’s own abilities given the condition of the person and the weather at the time of flight. In fact, FAA regulations make it quite clear that the pilot in command is responsible for being aware of the conditions of flight and the condition of the aircraft prior to flight. Even given thorough preparation, however, bad things can happen, and occasionally do. If you are going to fly, you just have to be aware of that.
Sorry, don’t remember. I just did a Google search for average reaction time or words to that effect and clicked on one of the links on the first page.
I have to agree with Bill on this. The people involved knew, or should be assumed to know, the risks involved. Should they be able to have these stunts over my suburb? No. Should they be allowed to have these stunts over an airfield where people go voluntarily? Sure.
One of my ex-neighbours in Adelaide is probably fitter and more alert at 95 than I am at 53. It’s not just about age.
I forgot to add, I used to live in New Hampshire. The reason for the property taxes being so high is of course the result of political machinations. Up until the 90’s, New Hampshire took “Live Free or Die” pretty seriously. Then the invasion from Massachusetts began. All the people running away from the kleptocracy in charge there failed to leave behind all of their redistributionist politics. The policy that prompted property taxes to skyrocket was a result the standard misapplication of a core principle of the Declaration of Independence, which is bastardized from “all men are created equal” into “all men shall be equal.” So so-called “rich” towns were forced to pay for the schools of the so-called “poor” towns. Our property taxes went through the roof.
It sounds like we agree. I have no problem with a man of 74, assuming he passes the required physical, flying a private aircraft in normal circumstances. In fact, I really don’t have a problem with him flying an airliner, given the automation present and the presence of a second pilot. But I think it’s a really bad idea to put him in situation where literally milliseconds can make the difference between an entertaining show and a catastrophe.
Bill, I never said anything about government. I think the sanctioning bodies for such events should implement strict requirements, just as I think nascar should enforce a mandatory retirement age for drivers. It was bad enough to have Earnhardt still driving 200+ MPH at nearly 50 years old, but they’ve had guys still driving at 60 if not older.
Greg, I think that’s twice you’ve agreed with me, this year alone. Are you feeling okay, otherwise?
Bob, and who oversees the sanctioning body? If you check into it, you’ll find that they DO have strict sanctioning requirements, which I can only presume the deceased pilot passed. We are living longer than our forefathers, why not be more capable at a later age, as well?
Bill, if Greg agrees with you, you should obviously reconsider your position.
Greg, if Bill agrees with you, you should obviously reconsider your position.
It does scare me a bit, actually.
Among the people affected by the USPS cutting 35k employees, besides Netflix viewers, are those same 35k people and their families and all the places they buy stuff wherever they live; it’s a ripple effect.
That said, the State needs to get out of that business and should have done so a long time ago, and the other thing going on, of course, is the lavish pension and benefit structure that was part of the employment structure with that organization and thousands of counties, towns, cities, and Fed agencies and departments across the country. Then the political hacks played various games with all those funds and now they’re gone and those promises can’t be kept anymore.
So we’re gonna be whipsawed between the necessity of making draconian cuts in government “services” and those people being out of work in this economy, and now competing in the labor pool with everyone else in the private sector who is or soon will be, out of work.
Along with all of this we will see rising crime rates and the resulting increasingly harsh use of State police power to crack down on that and any political dissidence. There will be no “American Spring” here and it will get very ugly in the next decade or so.
The USPS and DOD are two Fed Leviathans that need to be drastically cut to at least a third of what they are now. But it will be very painful for lots of people, including Netflix customers.
“Greg, I think that’s twice you’ve agreed with me, this year alone. Are you feeling okay, otherwise?”
I feel fine. I’ve never said that you’re *always* wrong. Perhaps your case of Cranky Old Geezer disease isn’t as bad as I thought… 🙂
I agree with our host. We do not need new regulatory bodies to just change the rules or implement different tests for drivers/flyers than what they now test for. Just change the tests. It is also stupid to place masses of people in highly dangerous close-proximity situations like that air race. That is just asking for shit to happen. From scanning the local papers out there, it looks like this accident will spell the end of that yearly air show. Death toll has climbed from 3 to 9 and more are still in hospital teetering on the brink. It also appears that running vintage old planes in races is not a good idea. Accidents with them are not infrequent. One of the papers in Reno had a quote from an air show official who said something like: ‘This is the first time any spectator has been killed. We have lost a few pilots, but never a spectator.’ Say what?
As to the Post Office, there are some services the government should provide, and speedy door-to-door mail service is one. However, we do NOT need Saturday delivery at all (Canada has gotten along fine without it for decades), and we do NOT need postwo/men riding around in expensive specially modified vehicles to deliver mail. They need to be on bicycles, like they are in Germany. Subsidy for junk mail needs to be eliminated. Making solicitors pay full freight would eliminate a LOT of the mail load. There is no discount rate for junk mail in Germany, and the price of a first-class letter was the equivalent of about US60¢. We got very little mail there that was not important. I am for raising the price of first-class (overnight) to about that, and offering 2 to 3 day service for the current first-class fee. Then let the mailer decide which is appropriate for sending to the addressee.
If the postal service costs more than it earns, so be it. So do the roads we drive on and the sewers we poop in.
I noticed that list of retirement cities included Bloomington, Indiana, my university’s home. Being a truly cosmopolitan town in the middle of an otherwise dismally culturally unaware part of the US, Jeri and I had decided we would locate there, should we have to return to the US, as we had already determined we could not afford to retire to S. California, where she grew up. If Tiny House ever sells, I will probably gravitate there–unless I really get done-in by the prolific snow here. My last two winters back in Indiana have been truly abominable. Worse in many respects than my years in Minnesota.
So when more than nine people die in car accidents this weekend, do we close the highway?
People die. Accidents happen. Don’t want to be in danger at a race? Then watch TV, like the rest of North America.
Reading some of these posts, I wonder if I’ve accidently stumbled into a den of liberals, but I can clearly see the ttgnet url. I can hardly wait until the State tries to take Bob’s drivers license away from them because he is “old”. Now excuse me while I open a package of peanuts and run with scissors.
What makes you think I have a driver’s license?
I see that in the 47-year history of the Reno event they’ve had 20 pilots killed. I wonder how many dead spectators they average per year.
I don’t object to any activity between or among consenting adults. Hell, even human sacrifice is fine with me, as long as it’s voluntary on the victims’ parts. However, I most certainly do object when others are exposed to significant danger without their permission or even necessarily knowledge. There was an airshow recently in Winston-Salem. We had a variety of vintage aircraft flying over our neighborhood for most of the day. But at least, as far as I know, they weren’t doing aerobatics or racing.
“I see that in the 47-year history of the Reno event they’ve had 20 pilots killed. I wonder how many dead spectators they average per year.”
Twenty pilots in 47 years? That’s nothing. An average of 341 people die each year slipping in the bathtub, and yet some homes have more than one! And let’s not forget the hazards of DMHO! Bathtubs are often filled to the brim with the stuff!!
This is a molehill, not a mountain. You are a Libertarian, not a Democrat. Nor are you Chicken Little. Things may fall from the sky and kill you, but not everyday, and certainly not all of the time. And most likely not today.
Eating peanuts and running with scissors. What a rush, man! And to think I used to get high on orange barrels (@1,000 mg/per) and Thai stix.
I figger if a bunch of people wanna take a chance on sitting under vintage aircraft doing acrobatics at high speeds and being piloted by septuagenarians, then have at it! But bringing kids is another story; should be an age limit.
And I like Chuck’s USPS plan. But bicycles would be problematic in the rural hinterlands hereabouts and other points of the compass. Bring back carrier pigeons and let’s ramp up ham radio! And the Pony Express! Hey, don’t laugh; the days of Happy Motoring are on their way out.
1. You aren’t doing this blog from a jail cell.
2. You have previously confessed to having car insurance.
According to the Reno paper, an air show official said they have had zero spectators killed during its run, but a “few” pilots were. However, 20 pilots in 47 years is more than a “few”.
I am no anarchist Libertarian–even a family of 2 needs rules that both accept;–anarchism provides neither safety nor wisdom, and it will never be anything even remotely close to universally accepted. Nobody should be able to put on a public event that places spectators in harm’s way. I doubt that any of the attendees at that show had the understanding that they could be maimed or killed; I am sure they thought safety was assured for them by those conducting the event. That is quite obvious from the public comments of surviving spectators in the aftermath of the accident.
I also do not favor allowing people to commit voluntary suicide, except for medical reasons.
As far as people dying on highways, not enough is done to prevent that, either. There is a curve on I-70 at Mount Comfort, Indiana, where the road curves, and if you go straight, you run smack into a bridge support abutment and you are dead. Over the years after I-70 was first constructed, that place has been at or among the highest death spots anywhere in the USA. It has never been corrected, and that should be a crime.
So no more baseball, or golf? Spectators have been injured, even killed by stray sports equipment. No skiing, too dangerous for humans! Beware! Flee! ALARM! RUN!!
How many people have been killed or injured this year from music concert stages collapsing? Two people severely injured at a Cheap Trick concert in Ottawa. Seven dead and forty injured at the Indiana State Fair after Sugerland played. A week later, another collapsed stage, this time in Belgium and five more dead and forty injured. Should we ban music concerts? Cheap Trick? Country music? Belgians? Okay, maybe that last one…
Where was the outrage when people were put in that danger? There were KIDS at those concerts!! Actual kids!!
If you’re gonna ban Belgians do you mean just the Flemish or also the Walloons? Or both?
Chuck wrote:
“I am no anarchist Libertarian–even a family of 2 needs rules that both accept;–anarchism provides neither safety nor wisdom, and it will never be anything even remotely close to universally accepted. Nobody should be able to put on a public event that places spectators in harm’s way. I doubt that any of the attendees at that show had the understanding that they could be maimed or killed; I am sure they thought safety was assured for them by those conducting the event. That is quite obvious from the public comments of surviving spectators in the aftermath of the accident.
I also do not favor allowing people to commit voluntary suicide, except for medical reasons.”
We know you’re not an anarchist. Your far too sane for that… 🙂
If people go to an air show where geezers are flying vintage aircraft they deserved to be entertained and to get their money’s worth. They also deserve the risk they take of being maimed or killed. I think it’s irresponsible to take the kids along if they can’t give informed consent. I don’t mind if some 74 year old flies an aircraft over my suburb, but I don’t want him doing risky manoeuvres over my suburb. Save that for airfields on the edge of the city.
As a Christian I don’t like suicide period, but I think the alternatives to not being allowed to do so are worse. You want to set up a government bureaucracy to judge on whether your medical reasons are good enough?
Bill wrote:
“So no more baseball, or golf?”
Definitely no more golf. It’s about as slow as cricket and gridiron. Being forced to watch golf in the US would be banned as “cruel and unusual punishment.
OFD asked: “If you’re gonna ban Belgians do you mean just the Flemish or also the Walloons? Or both?”
You see the slippery slope, then?