08:53 – Mainstream European newspapers are now starting to talk about the collapse of the Euro and the breakup of the EU, not just as a possibility but as something that’s likely to occur. Of course, their timeframe is wildly optimistic. I just read one article that quoted an economist as saying he estimated only a 20% likelihood that the Euro (and therefore, inevitably, the EU itself) would last in its present form for 10 years. Ten years? Give me a break. I’d estimate there’s only a 20% probability that the Euro will last in its current form for the next 90 days, and maybe a 1% probability it’ll still be around at the end of the year. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Euro and the EU crashed by the end of this month.
Many people disagreed with me that Germany will return to the Deutschmark, or something very like it, but I still think that’s almost certain to happen. Or, if Germany decides not to go it alone, it may form a new union with Austria, Holland, Luxembourg, and Finland. I think that’s less likely than Germany going it alone, if only because Germany is now well aware of the extreme hazards of a currency union without a political union and a fiscal union, and those are not things Germans are likely to tolerate.
Work on building more chemistry kits continues. I’m filling, capping, and sealing containers and Barbara is labeling them. She can do that about twice as fast as I can do my part, so I try to get a backlog built up while she’s doing other things.
In Europe, all the talk over the weekend has been “how do we prevent a market crash”. Initial signs are that there isn’t going to be one, although markets are at their lowest values for the year.
What I do not – and never have – understood about markets is this: since the government regulates them, why does it allow (indeed, encourage) short-term thinking? Stock markets should be about investing in companies, not playing short-term games. Imagine how the markets would work, if you applied the following tax rates:
– Securities held less than 1 day: 500% tax rate
– Securities held less than 1 week: 100% tax rate
– Securities held less than year: 50% tax rate
People like to gamble, but that is not what stock markets ought to be about. Short-term transactions are either gambling or criminal. Take for example, the newest “millesecond transactions”: Banks get between the buyer and the seller and cream off the difference in buy/sell market prices. Previously, that small difference would have gone to either the buyer or seller – this is simply theft.
Some rioting in London and Birmingham — spurred at least partly by recent financial things. No confirmed deaths yet…
Other than the person shot to death by the police that sparked the riots in the first place…
The police are abusive and corrupt. That said, these riots aren’t about that corruption anymore. They’re about looting and thuggery. Most people on the streets don’t care about Mark Duggan.
“Take for example, the newest “millesecond transactions”: Banks get between the buyer and the seller and cream off the difference in buy/sell market prices. Previously, that small difference would have gone to either the buyer or seller – this is simply theft.”
Why? Banks have been doing that for decades haven’t they?
“The police are abusive and corrupt. That said, these riots aren’t about that corruption anymore. They’re about looting and thuggery.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-09/london-in-shock-after-night-of-madness/2831646?section=world
Hmmm, my sister and a niece are in the UK at the moment. Fortunately they’re in the west country and I haven’t heard of any trouble there.
It’s all the fault of “anarchists”. From the article:
“Anti-racism campaigner Claudia Webbe says she believes the initial violence in Tottenham was caused by community anger at the police.
But she says anarchists are now manipulating young people in low-income areas via Twitter and Facebook.
“I believe there is an element of organised anarchists that is inciting some of our young people in our inner-city areas, basically saying ‘move here, move there, cause this, cause that’, creating a sense of come and do this and do it as bad as you can,” she said.”
What nonsense! If people go looting because Twitter told them to, they’d probably go if Twitter didn’t tell them to. And most left-anarchists couldn’t organise a picnic without splintering into five mutually opposed groups. This is a load of people looting — partly because they feel disenfranchised and mostly because they want loot.
It’s not just *left* anarchists that are loons.
I never said they were loons; I said they were bad at organising.
Well, if a person advocates a lunatic ideology then does that make them a loon? Possibly.
I work with a left anarchist and I think he’s perfectly sane. We even agree on some issues. So I guess it’s possible for a sane person to advocate insane ideas… >:->
Why, yes. Take, for example, your advocacy of religion.
I thought the ruling on whether or not Greg is sane was still being voted upon?
No, the great man himself has said I’m not a religious nutter, and that I’m not delusional, except when I talk about religion.